EastonSN+ Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just read in a forum which shall remain annonamis that NAO negative then "flips" the 25th of FEB. That's a decent time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have an epic +PNA and -NAO look week 3 and 4. Pretty sick looking. Jesus. If you didn't suffer from priapism before, you will after looking at that those maps. Yo yo ma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Who is cancelling snow? I just meant the GFS has gone in the shitter since the federal shutdown...not that it was great to begin with. I would just give it less credence for now. Not you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: God help us if Philly wins another SB. Dynasty in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Who is cancelling snow? I just meant the GFS has gone in the shitter since the federal shutdown...not that it was great to begin with. I would just give it less credence for now. Even the NWS in Boston didn't have kind things to say about the GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Lol GFS scores haven't changed. They stayed in suck range 3rd or 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The GFS may be bad, but remember this just 2 1/2 days ago from CMC?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol GFS scores haven't changed. They stayed in suck range 3rd or 4th Just going based on this...could be fake news “But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Oof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Greg said: I think some of the 1978 talk is a bit over the top but a "Coastal Bomb" development-like pattern can occur. For that, I'll throw my hat into the ring with this upcoming potential pattern. Keep your eyes peeled and fingers crossed at all times! No, it isn't. I'm not referring to any specific threat...just the pattern that lies ahead in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yeah that is not good for day 5. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 In Fv3 we pray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In Fv3 we pray? In fraud we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: In fraud we trust. Fraud Version 3.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ratio to other models about the same , still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Ratio to other models about the same , still sucks. It is extra special sucky now... save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It is extra special sucky now... save a horse Some On air mets still ripping and reading though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed. Get a GD grip Easy bro, you’re like an economist of weather forecasting. Predicted 10 out of the last two recessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is not good for day 5. Yikes. The recent 2 weeks of that have been really terrible...neck and neck with the navy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ski-resort-evacuated-thousands-stranded-142144984.html?guccounter=1 Epicosity in the Alps secured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In Fv3 we pray? Isn't that also affected by the shutdown? It came further N this run while the GFS went S, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Easy bro, you’re like an economist of weather forecasting. Predicted 10 out of the last two recessions. Aren’t you the kid that came into our forum yesterday making up false info about Mjo and ensembles and caused weenie panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed. Get a GD grip 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Aren’t you the kid that came into our forum yesterday making up false info about Mjo and ensembles and caused weenie panic. Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Aren’t you the dude that came into our forum yesterday making up false info about Mjo and ensembles and caused weenie panic. Easy-I believe he is our old friend snowplow from NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy. Nope. And it’s correcting left every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Weeklies posted in the middle Atlantic forum they look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nope. And it’s correcting left every day. Per Don Sutherland: “Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Weeklies posted in the middle Atlantic forum they look good Yes, in the same sense that Phoebe Cates saying, "Hi Hoth, you know how cute I always thought you were" is "good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nope. And it’s correcting left every day. Yeah it's starting to look like 2015. Circles back into COD and then maybe emerges weakly back into the good phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Per Don Sutherland: “Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.” Old forecast of MJO and not factually correct today. I showed you the latest prog from eps this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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