dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:30 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not there yet but deff has more room to amplify if the n stream wants to show up. Expand Its MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Still a mess but it’s bettr Expand and at the surface it is worse. more snow for North Carolina though, good for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 So the two best models at H5 are the least favorable outcomes. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:30 PM, weathafella said: Gonna be much better Expand Maybe 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:35 PM, dryslot said: Maybe 0z? Expand 12z tomorrow is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:37 PM, weathafella said: 12z tomorrow is my guess Expand Two weeks is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:34 PM, dendrite said: So the two best models at H5 are the least favorable outcomes. Noted. Expand Better put your eggs in a highly amplified southern stream s/w because there was nothing to phase with in the northern stream to bring this north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:37 PM, weathafella said: 12z tomorrow is my guess Expand I wasn't so sure you and i were looking at the same Euro run because this didn't look better to me early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 How does uncle score so well when he spends half his time at the 19th hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Maybe this run is more correct, but that's a pretty big change at H5 compared to 0z (and yesterday's 12z) runs. Northern stream basically a no-show on this run, so this is DOA even with a better western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Actually a little bit of a southeast ridge poking in there and slightly weaker high to the north would bring this storm northward fairly easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 That run looks strange to me. I’d probably toss and see it the ensembles agree or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:41 PM, dryslot said: I wasn't so sure you and i were looking at the same Euro run because this didn't look better to me early on. Expand I didn’t start looking and was about to refute Kevin’s better posts but then I looked and it was working for awhile. No time to study it closely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:41 PM, weathafella said: How does uncle score so well when he spends half his time at the 19th hole? Expand My guess is it does well with heights overall, but starts chugging from the bottle when it comes to cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Seriously though, this isn't a bad spot to be in seeing this at about 6 days out. Think about it. A few ticks to the north and most of us are golden in the heart of our viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:47 PM, Greg said: Seriously though, this isn't a bad spot to be in seeing this at about 6 days out. Think about it. A few ticks to the north and most of us are golden in the heart of our viewing area. Expand Yeah it’s fine. Like will and I said, even getting some light snow won’t be pulling teeth like it has been. I’m not saying it’s a lock, it finally we have a pattern that allows for east coast cyclogenesis. Will and Tip discussed it nicely. Yeah the ridge axis is a little east and moving along, but hey...I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:43 PM, CoastalWx said: That run looks strange to me. I’d probably toss and see it the ensembles agree or not. Expand Ray says Jan 20 and nothing until Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s fine. Like will and I said, even getting some light snow won’t be pulling teeth like it has been. I’m not saying it’s a lock, it finally we have a pattern that allows for east coast cyclogenesis. Will and Tip discussed it nicely. Yeah the ridge axis is a little east and moving along, but hey...I’ll take it. Expand I'm actually potentially excited for you, I mean it where you are situated, But I still hope a more GFS solution happens verses of course a CMC solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Ray says Jan 20 and nothing until Expand Not what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:56 PM, Greg said: I'm actually potentially excited for you, I mean it where you are situated, But I still hope a more GFS solution happens verses of course a CMC solution. Expand CMC is a weenie solution. What’s wrong with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:56 PM, Greg said: I'm actually potentially excited for you, I mean it where you are situated, But I still hope a more GFS solution happens verses of course a CMC solution. Expand Wilmington or Weymouth...way too early to get a feel. Hell if it’s 2-4” does it matter? I’ll be happy with the ground white. This pattern is one of the worst things I’ve ever lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 6:43 PM, weathafella said: I didn’t start looking and was about to refute Kevin’s better posts but then I looked and it was working for awhile. No time to study it closely though. Expand It was better for reasons mets mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:01 PM, weathafella said: CMC is a weenie solution. What’s wrong with it? Expand Probably because it only showed 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Wilmington or Weymouth...way too early to get a feel. Hell if it’s 2-4” does it matter? I’ll be happy with the ground white. This pattern is one of the worst things I’ve ever lived through. Expand To young in the 80's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 2:49 PM, donsutherland1 said: Apologies for the delayed reply. The following winters saw < 2" snow at Boston through January 7: 1999-00: None 1925-26: 0.5" 1927-28: 0.5" 2006-07: 0.8" 1900-01: 0.9" 2015-16: 0.9" 2011-12: 1.0" 1998-99: 1.1" 1990-91: 1.2" 1953-54: 1.3" 1935-36: 1.4" 1931-32: 1.6" 1994-95: 1.6" 1973-74: 1.7" 1913-14: 1.8" So far, 2018-19 has had just 0.2" snow. Expand Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:05 PM, dryslot said: Too young in the 80's? Expand Even then we would get crumbs. Nothing like going weeks without an inch of snow and temps that could have supported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:01 PM, weathafella said: CMC is a weenie solution. What’s wrong with it? Expand It actually ends up turning to rain when it makes it's closes pass to us is what I'm getting at. Otherwise, if that solutions center stays a few nautical miles south (Off Shore) then we would be in really good shape of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:14 PM, Greg said: It actually ends up turning to rain when it makes it's closes pass to us is what I'm getting at. Otherwise, if that solutions center stays a few nautical miles south (Off Shore) then we would be in really good shape of course. Expand That probably would not happen with that exact track. We take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Nice move on EC ensembles. Def NW of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 7:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It was better for reasons mets mentioned Expand Thanks for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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