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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Remember that 2015 winter was the same way, difficult to produce snow until it happened January 26th-28th, 2015.  So until it happens we should remain optimistic that something will happen for us.

I think when the pattern does click it'll really click. Could see a March 2018 solution for late Jan/February with multiple storms. 

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On 1/6/2019 at 9:40 AM, kdxken said:

Don, I know you are the master of stats. do you have any information on how the start to this winter Stacks up against other down years in our area? 

Apologies for the delayed reply. The following winters saw < 2" snow at Boston through January 7:

1999-00: None
1925-26: 0.5"
1927-28: 0.5"
2006-07: 0.8"
1900-01: 0.9"
2015-16: 0.9"
2011-12: 1.0"
1998-99: 1.1"
1990-91: 1.2"
1953-54: 1.3"
1935-36: 1.4"
1931-32: 1.6"
1994-95: 1.6"
1973-74: 1.7"
1913-14: 1.8"

So far, 2018-19 has had just 0.2" snow.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Apologies for the delayed reply. The following winters saw < 2" snow at Boston through January 7:

1999-00: None
1925-26: 0.5"
1927-28: 0.5"
2006-07: 0.8"
1900-01: 0.9"
2015-16: 0.9"
2011-12: 1.0"
1998-99: 1.1"
1990-91: 1.2"
1953-54: 1.3"
1935-36: 1.4"
1931-32: 1.6"
1994-95: 1.6"
1973-74: 1.7"
1913-14: 1.8"

So far, 2018-19 has had just 0.2" snow.

In all honesty Don, the snowfall measurement for Bos should be somewhere in the 2 to 3 inch range.  Even meteorologists in here have discussed how BOS is having an issue finding reliable and available people to do their measurements and that number is not accurate.  Perhaps a list of <3" would be most accurate. 

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6 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

In all honesty Don, the snowfall measurement for Bos should be somewhere in the 2 to 3 inch range.  Even meteorologists in here have discussed how BOS is having an issue finding reliable and available people to do their measurements and that number is not accurate.  Perhaps a list of <3" would be most accurate. 

I'm aware of the controversy with the November storm. I don't dismiss it.

 

15 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

In all honesty Don, the snowfall measurement for Bos should be somewhere in the 2 to 3 inch range.  Even meteorologists in here have discussed how BOS is having an issue finding reliable and available people to do their measurements and that number is not accurate.  Perhaps a list of <3" would be most accurate. 

The following years can be added:

1979-80: 2.0"
1924-25: 2.7"
1983-84: 2.7"

2014-15 had 4.5" through 1/7.

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36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s just a simple question if you are a snow weenie or above the ‘weeniesh’ of it all. 

Oh ...I gotha.  Mm, I just roll-eyes sometimes at it all ... Admittedly, I don't spend as much time with the personalities of everyone in here enough to know when it's kidding/chiding/serious ...or legit crazy...    

But when I said, "... And I'm sure if that was riddled with optimism that feeds the group delirium there would be a different response. ...

I was snarking about the hypocrisy that's pretty common everywhere in society in general - not just in here, but we're certainly not immune. If the content was all rah-rah everything is awesome!  There's usually steady accolade stream about how awesome the post is - that's all... 

Personally? I used whine and bitch and obsess over getting storms back in the Weather Channel hay-days of the 1980s to mid 1990s.  ...as I date myself.  By the time the late 1990s rolled around I was a bit too hardened by disappointments, but also ..had expanded my interest areas to a broader pallet of distractions to get "quite" the same vested value into this gunk.

I am still passionate about winter weather (and summer for that matter) phenomenon ... so enjoy the engagement for the analysis therein.  I'm equally taken in by both seasons.. Heh, it's why I hate April so much... It's a like a 13 month from hell from some dimension devoid of sight and sound known only as the Twilight zone.  It's the closest you'll ever see me get to a "melt-down" ... May 2005 is the absolutely winner ... irony being ... not April. But, that 2005 May was the worst "April" static bum violation ever.  It was like the universe its self used our figurative collective head as the actual device in the ass pumping of a weather shit hole.  Does that clear up how I felt ? ha

I can switch on the dime ... I mean if it's 80 F tomorrow I equally amazed.  I'm probably a frustrating dude to follow because of those itinerant tendencies.  

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54 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Gentlemen, while on my morning truffle shuffle I was witness today to a most curious natural phenomenon, which I want to pass along. It seems that the remnants of yestereen's rainfall have developed a crust of sorts in the postprandial hours. Indeed, the standing puddles of water appear to have transitioned from a liquid phase to a hard one. I must say I stopped short in abject wonderment to observe said phenomenon and found that this hard-water was both cold to the touch and devilishly slippery. Somewhere in the deepest pockets of memory something familiar in me stirred, some remnant of winters of yore suspended, but what it was I could not say; but I decided then and there to make a thorough investigation into the matter when I returned home. Well, my research has been most illuminating. It would seem that, in a brief period during peak winter climatology, lasting no longer than the twinkling of an eye, the mercury in southern New England may fall to such hyperborean lows as to allow liquid water to transition into a new and rare state called "ice". Gentlemen, I propose to embark on a series of experiments to test this miraculous substance, which I believe may bring about a revolution in the fields of mixology, and stick-wielding winter sports. I shall pass along the particulars in due course should you decide to invest in my new venture.

Yours faithfully and sincerely,  

Hoth, Weenie Emeritus

Fake News!  Next thing you know, you will be telling us that such things can actually fall from the sky and coat the earth!  Balderdash!

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ...I gotha.  Mm, I just roll-eyes sometimes at it all ... Admittedly, I don't spend as much time with the personalities of everyone in here enough to know when it's kidding/chiding/serious ...or legit crazy...    

But when I said, "... And I'm sure if that was riddled with optimism that feeds the group delirium there would be a different response. ...

I was snarking about the hypocrisy that's pretty common everywhere in society in general - not just in here, but we're certainly not immune. If the content was all rah-rah everything is awesome!  There's usually steady accolade stream about how awesome the post is - that's all... 

Personally? I used whine and bitch and obsess over getting storms back in the Weather Channel hay-days of the 1980s to mid 1990s.  ...as I date myself.  By the time the late 1990s rolled around I was a bit too hardened by disappointments, but also ..had expanded my interest areas to a broader pallet of distractions to get "quite" the same vested value into this gunk.

I am still passionate about winter weather (and summer for that matter) phenomenon ... so enjoy the engagement for the analysis therein.  I'm equally taken in by both seasons.. Heh, it's why I hate April so much... It's a like a 13 month from hell from some dimension devoid of sight and sound known only as the Twilight zone.  It's the closest you'll ever see me get to a "melt-down" ... May 2005 is the absolutely winner ... irony being ... not April. But, that 2005 May was the worst "April" static bum violation ever.  It was like the universe its self used our figurative collective head as the actual device in the ass pumping of a weather shit hole.  Does that clear up how I felt ? ha

I can switch on the dime ... I mean if it's 80 F tomorrow I equally amazed.  I'm probably a frustrating dude to follow because of those itinerant tendencies.  

Haha, yea that clears it up. No means was I attacking. Point was, we are all (at least the majority) here because we have a certain fetish for weather and it’s within the relm of human nature to get emotional when these ‘fetishes’ are not met. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Haha, yea that clears it up. No means was I attacking. Point was, we are all (at least the majority) here because we have a certain fetish for weather and it’s within the relm of human nature to get emotional when these ‘fetishes’ are not met. 

Tip def gets credit for liking a wide variety of weather phenomena. He can wax poetic about a good Sonoran heat release or the inside of the car warming up on March 3rd while spotting crocus shoots popping through the snow. Or a thunderhead exploding to the west on an early May evening while smelling honeysuckle from the outflow boundary. 

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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Haha, yea that clears it up. No means was I attacking. Point was, we are all (at least the majority) here because we have a certain fetish for weather and it’s within the relm of human nature to get emotional when these ‘fetishes’ are not met. 

Oh ...I'm with you... I am absolutely not above shit man - I'll be the first to admit that and always have. 

But you gotta have wise-ass douchebags like me around too to help balance out the rhetoric...   Hey - I call it exactly how I see it. If it's f'ed worse than the tenor that date... no problem!  Guess I'm the asshole that day. 

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In any case ...  I'm not saying the GFS solution - or the like... - can't happen.  I just see that as lower probability for the usual suspects, which are all legit concerns. 

I did notice since posting that, however, ...that there are a few members of the GEFs 00z that indicate some sort of amplitude at from the N/stream trying to entangle in that time frame so heh... Thing is, it is D6 like Scott hinted that's not exactly a D10 86'er range... It's mutable in both directions, but not entirely based upon fractals at that range. 

Trope applies, this next run might be interesting blah blah

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