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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Heavy snow to rain then back to snow.. that looks great to me

Would prob be more like FZRA/IP before flipping back to snow with that high and sfc track though sometimes in the CT Valley you torch to 33-34F rain on those setups. 

My worry is def not enough amplification at the moment though. Maybe that will change. 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Would prob be more like FZRA/IP before flipping back to snow with that high and sfc track though sometimes in the CT Valley you torch to 33-34F rain on those setups. 

My worry is def not enough amplification at the moment though. Maybe that will change. 

Yea, not very excited.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 Six or so days out, I’m a bit intrigued. Even the offshore solutions perhaps offer a little something and the amped up solutions, hey well at least it shows a good storm. Of course it go it could go to dog crap today too.

Yeah even the op Euro has some light snow with the system well southeast. 

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GFS solution is dubious though ...

It's unclear where the western Ontario polar stream smear that organizes into a diving S/W ultimately comes from...

The western Canadian geopotential medium/evolution through there has modest ridge amplitude, check, prior to the southward plunge through the Lakes of that carving feature.   You really need that, and the southern rider, both, for the subsume scenarios.  These aspects are demonstrated with shocking panache ... too well to sit well in fact, considering there is still yet 48 hours worth of model cycles before any of that time frame enters the useful area of the old reliability curve ... to put it nicely. 

Looking closer at the intervals and going backward in time it appears the N/stream loading is coming through Alaska's attenuating gyre up there ... prior to that it's not clear if it comes from the N- Pac or if its relayed from N. Asia over the lower B. Sea..  But, it gets dumped over western Canada and the ridge subtle flex then incites its dive ... where perfectly timed ally-'oop southern stream weakness provides the subsume domain space.. 

It's 1978 -esque ...  really. If one goes back and looks at that total evolution, that facet in general would air apparent to both with all intended "pundamental" glory - 

Not saying the GFS is phantom feeding us perfect stream interaction that is, in total, achieving extraordinarily high mechanical conservation proficiency at 144 hours out in time, buuut, ... that seems more likely what the model is doing.  ... Yes yes, I'm sure the Euro will come in with out of nowhere supporting huge adjustment ... if for purely non-scientific intent, just to make this very prudent skepticism seem wrong ... But being dealt reverses seems to be the bemusing, repeating theme to this whole shit show saga over recent weeks.  In any case, it is at least true to say ... a pretty leap in its own performance curve getting all that to happen.  

It is that ending sardonic tone that would have me at a pause ... The under-the-radar outcome off all those dealt-reverses modeling ventures ... come hell or high water has not meant snow and winter profiled events... So regardless of how we get there, that is a trend that is hard to knock after month+ consistency.  

I guess at the end of this morning rant the old axiom should apply: perfect solutions beyond three ... or even two days time usually don't survive.  We'll see... 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Tip definitely doesn’t have a job...

LMAO.....

 

But I'm thinking this slides out to sea south....obviously way too early to say that, but that's what seems to be most likely at this point to me.  But at least it's showing something...be real nice to see some more decent news with this today....We can Hope.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Best job in the world ...  ;) 

And I'm sure if that was riddled with optimism that feeds the group delirium there would be a different response. 

Nope.  I’m amazed at the time you have to compose well written and long essays.

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Gentlemen, while on my morning truffle shuffle I was witness today to a most curious natural phenomenon, which I want to pass along. It seems that the remnants of yestereen's rainfall have developed a crust of sorts in the postprandial hours. Indeed, the standing puddles of water appear to have transitioned from a liquid phase to a hard one. I must say I stopped short in abject wonderment to observe said phenomenon and found that this hard-water was both cold to the touch and devilishly slippery. Somewhere in the deepest pockets of memory something familiar in me stirred, some remnant of winters of yore suspended, but what it was I could not say; but I decided then and there to make a thorough investigation into the matter when I returned home. Well, my research has been most illuminating. It would seem that, in a brief period during peak winter climatology, lasting no longer than the twinkling of an eye, the mercury in southern New England may fall to such hyperborean lows as to allow liquid water to transition into a new and rare state called "ice". Gentlemen, I propose to embark on a series of experiments to test this miraculous substance, which I believe may bring about a revolution in the fields of mixology, and stick-wielding winter sports. I shall pass along the particulars in due course should you decide to invest in my new venture.

Yours faithfully and sincerely,  

Hoth, Weenie Emeritus

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