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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is unlikely that the favorable period goes to crap...climo says so.

It goes both ways, too...I remember headed into February 2011, people didn't think we could lose coming out of that epic Jan 2011 stretch...but after that last early Feb event, it all went poof and we couldn't catch a break the rest of the way.

La nina climo....even 1996 to a lesser extent. It recovered, but it wasn't as prolific. 2008 and 2009..same for us in sne...poof. Nina climo.

There are alway exceptions, of course...last year and 2001 being two prime SSW attributable examples.

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I kind of like Kevin's 'hot' take on winter ... To see such a banal impression from someone that usually needs 0 cause for inspiration is encouraging in a way...

Anyway, ...what in the f is the operational Euro doing?   My god... I realize we're suffering some data outages do to this on-going appropriations thing but as of last registry ... there are 0 hemispheric factors that connote a solution like this 12z beyond mid week.  Really baffling...

 

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I guess the present modeled MJO curve from the panoply of the guidance given here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml  

... do in fairness "suggest" something my be wrong.

The curve of the wave has jolted robustly into the margin between the 7th and 8th quadratures of the WH diagram. Weee...  buuut, it summarily decays ... like, abruptly so. 

That abruptness will be interestingly tested over the next 24 hours for one.  But, it may be a flag that the Pacific isn't really in constructive wave interference for wave spaces trying to enter the western hemisphere. 

For those that have been following this... that may mean the Pacific WPO-NP-EPO arc is not really good for winter enthusiasts ... as it's instruction down wind over N/A's mid latitudes may not favor +PNA, whether the MJO wave is trying to pass through or not.

This operational Euro really looks like it's operating two distinct paradigms concurrently.  Above roughly the 50th parallel ...there is a pallid semblance to cold loading pattern over the Candadian shield, while below that, raging -PNAP boner is pounding our indignity from the Pacific.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"pounding our indignity from the Pacific" :lol:

yeah yeah yeah...  well, it may be that it's just having issues in a pattern change? 

Or, ...maybe the pattern change air apparent by everything discussed over the last couple -a weeks, while real ... don't quite have the power to pull the PNAP out ... I dunno

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah yeah yeah...  well, it may be that it's just having issues in a pattern change? 

Or, ...maybe the pattern change air apparent by everything discussed over the last couple -a weeks, while real ... don't quite have the power to pull the PNAP out ... I dunno

I was laughing with, not at...that was funny.

The PNA issues aren't a huge suprise given the near exquisite match to the 1969 warm ENSO event...I think the ramification of this maybe that both our snowfall ceiling may be lowered a bit, and floor raised a bit. IOW...I think the any fear of a suppressed season a la 2010 should be about gone, however the odds of 2015 redux are probably lowered some. But we'll let it play out..should see some intense NAO assist eventually. The key for the mid atl will be to sync that with a PNA pulse.

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I kind of like Kevin's 'hot' take on winter ... To see such a banal impression from someone that usually needs 0 cause for inspiration is encouraging in a way...

Anyway, ...what in the f is the operational Euro doing?   My god... I realize we're suffering some data outages do to this on-going appropriations thing but as of last registry ... there are 0 hemispheric factors that connote a solution like this 12z beyond mid week.  Really baffling...

 

What’s my take ? I’m confused 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowfall through today, January 6, during some of the most prominent analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the left.

2015: 4.5"    110.6"

2005: 18.0"  86.6"

1978: 9.7"   85.1"

1969: 6.0"    53.8"

 

2018: .2"  ?

 

 

 

you leaning to one specific? (I was just glancing at pictures I had from Jan-Feb-2015

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53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was laughing with, not at...that was funny.

 

we're laughing passed each other ha... I mean "yeah yeah yeah" as a continuation of the commiseration.  Too much is lost in a toneless media -

Anyway, just had a packing pallet squall here...  Pretty cool watching it rolling in...as the fractured sky lights were being obscured like some grand stage operator closing the curtains.  Sheets of pallets waving down the street as the white noise elevated through the trees.

It reminded me of circa teenager ...when dad makes you go out and rake the lawn during the season's first chilly air mass of mid autumn.  Even smelled the same way... heh. I guess par for the course for a winter that cannot commit for any reason imaginable since that cold snap of November. Perpetual autumn

You know... I was musing to self about this the other day...  it almost seems similar in some ways to 2012...  Got cold, cashed in ...then cashed out...  Just did it a month later in climo... 

Obviously there are no leading correlative paramters ...I'm just pattern of sensible porking is quite painfully similar thus far. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we're laughing passed each other ha... I mean "yeah yeah yeah" as a continuation of the commiseration.  Too much is lost in a toneless media -

Anyway, just had a packing pallet squall here...  Pretty cool watching it rolling in...as the fractured sky lights were being obscured like some grand stage operator closing the curtains.  Sheets of pallets waving down the street as the white noise elevated through the trees.

It reminded me of circa teenager ...when dad makes you go out and rake the lawn in during the season's first chilly air mass of mid autumn.  Even smelled the same way... heh. I guess par for the course for a winter that cannot commit for any reason imaginable since that cold snap of November.

You know... I was musing to self about this the other day...  it almost seems similar in some ways to 2012...  Got cold, cashed in ...then cashed out...  Just did it a month later in climo... 

Obviously there are no leading correlative paramters ...I'm just pattern of sensible porking is quite painfully similar thus far. 

Been to any good clinics of late?

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowfall through today, January 6, for Boston during some of the most prominent analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the right.

2015: 4.5"    110.6"

2005: 18.0"  86.6"

1978: 9.7"   85.1"

1969: 6.0"    53.8"

 

2018: .2"  ?

 

 

 

Thanks!

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It goes both ways, too...I remember headed into February 2011, people didn't think we could lose coming out of that epic Jan 2011 stretch...but after that last early Feb event, it all went poof and we couldn't catch a break the rest of the way.

La nina climo....even 1996 to a lesser extent. It recovered, but it wasn't as prolific. 2008 and 2009..same for us in sne...poof. Nina climo.

There are alway exceptions, of course...last year and 2001 being two prime SSW attributable examples.

In 96 I had 40 inches the first 13 days of Jan before the torch. It can does happen 

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