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January 2019 Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Scooter caution flags being waved frantically. It may never snow again. 

He melted, then resorted to posting pics from 2015 to counter his emotions. It’s like when a girl dumps a guy but acts like he doesn’t care....then a few years later, he’s staring at her pics on FB with a bottle in hand.  

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would say someone with good juju should fire up a thread for the Tuesday shenanigans, but I don’t think anyone has good juju right now... :cry:

Bob, but he’s checked out on Tuesday for what looks to be legit reason 

so Maybe YOU do it optimistically 

A case could be made the upcomng pattern shifting more favorable is gonna shift the gradient south from CNE to N Mass and maybe elevations in SNE initially 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think we had one of powderfreak hanging from a chairlift a few years ago. 

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

After that post yesterday where you absolutely trashed frequent 2-4” fluff farts we need that ugly sweater pic of you and PF.

LOL, those were great. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

After that post yesterday where you absolutely trashed frequent 2-4” fluff farts we need that ugly sweater pic of you and PF.

LOL I think Maine jayhawk made that one. He made powderfreak like 5 feet tall in it too, lol. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The operational versions across the panoply of them did regress toward the previous dynamic and/or toward crap in general a little bit though..

For three ...maybe four cycles, there was a trend to see the Tuesday/Wed system favor the trailing wave mechanics more ... but that particular facet is really gone back to almost nothing. 

The flow is very fast everywhere still just yet.  Not just the wind velocities in the middle troposphere, but the wave spaces them selves are propagating at a bit of an anomaly.  That which entangles and trundles across the U.S. and southern Canada for said time frame is still just S of the GOA ... I'm reasonably certain by geographic circumstance that must be entirely assimilated there. I am wondering if some potency, however subtle may have been lost, has taken place as those mechanics started moving through that data sparse region. 

Here's the thing ... the lead warm advection IB light snow to cold rain/zr would weaken further "if" that trailing potency continued to evolve... but seeing as it's gone the weakened way, that may be why the former appears more robust in recent frames.  It's like relaying error back and forth...  Anyway, should the total wave space favor the backside again, that would cause some neggie interference to roll out ahead and help nuder the lead IB.  Still could be a situation in flux.  The relay into the denser more materialized sounding grid really only begins tonight at 00z... So, it may be a slow day in here... Then, tonight's run show no improvement (of course...) which means the previous solutions may have been 'over' assimilated - something caused that very coherent trend, and something is causing it to leave.

The EPS at Tropical TB (as I am sure everyone has seen) actually looks less favorable for winter enthusiasm over the conus.  Now, that product leaves everything to be desired at the scope/scale of the hemisphere ... But as far as D10/end of run, it was pretty squarely out of phase with GEFs and GEPs over Buffalo.  Now...that's not saying anything for the 11+ range up over the Alaskan sector...understood.

The AO prog at CPC is still increasingly converged among the different ensemble curves...as well, ~  -1 SD entering the second week.  Meanwhile, the MJO is still showing some strengthening tendencies in Phase 8 ... so despite (also) the operational runs looking a little less impressive in PNAP in general beyond Tue ... that may be growing pains. I don't see where the forcing can really come from to throw the models off.. .but the D8-10 Euro looks more like "losing" a sense of direction in the general cinema, rather than actually returning to what we have now.  So... annoying overnight but not lost to enthusiasts would be my call for now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Agreed Tip...last night def trended back away from the 2nd wave on Wednesday somewhat. It's still there but it's probably not going to be the more robust version we were searching out on the 12z runs yesterday. 

Still some time though for a little surprise. Even if it's a quickly developing wave along the vortmax. But I think expectations should definitely be kept in check for this system. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed Tip...last night def trended back away from the 2nd wave on Wednesday somewhat. It's still there but it's probably not going to be the more robust version we were searching out on the 12z runs yesterday. 

Still some time though for a little surprise. Even if it's a quickly developing wave along the vortmax. But I think expectations should definitely be kept in check for this system. 

Would it be another 1-3” deal?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If i had to place a number on the Tues-Weds deal right now it would probably be 4-8" unless we can get back to some of the Miller B solutions of yore.

It depends what we mean by that total?

as in "IN" total...or which part?

There are two plausible considerations through that period.  I'm not criticizing I'm squaring things:  ...So the IB could swath a 1-3" ... maybe 2-4", then end as cold matting mist and freezing drizzle depending...  Then there's a "lull" if we want to call it that... And it would be possible that even without a trailing wave like Will was just describing ...enough ribbon of 500 mb wind velocities keep ripping past to the south to organize an inverted trough and some blossoming snow/Norlun- like I suppose.  A situation such as that could actually snow more prodigiously than that warm advection front end of that time frame ... if ironically, and be poorly modeled to do so at that.

The other is that the relay off the Pac re-enters a subtly increasing amplitude variance and then said inverted trough gets closed off; i.e., more from an an NJ model or exit bloomer. 

I don't see the 4-8" though, without one of those two "part II" assists however. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends what we mean by that total?

as in "IN" total...or which part?

There are two plausible considerations through that period.  I'm not criticizing I'm squaring things:  ...So the IB could swath a 1-3" ... maybe 2-4", then end as cold matting mist and freezing drizzle depending...  Then there's a "lull" if we want to call it that... And it would be possible that even without a trailing wave like Will was just describing ...enough ribbon of 500 mb wind velocities keep ripping past to the south to organize an inverted trough and some blossoming snow/Norlun- like I suppose.  A situation such as that could actually snow more prodigiously than that warm advection front end of that time frame ... if ironically.

The other is that the relay off the Pac re-enters a subtle amplitude variance and then said inverted trough gets closed off and there may be more from an an NJ model or exit bloomer. 

I don't see the 4-8" though, without one of those two "part II" assists however. 

I thought when i outlined tue-weds that was covering both, It looks like its coming in 2 parts, So yeah, 2-4" tues and 2-4"weds unless we get back to a consolidated look, This looks very similar to what we had on 01/03 and that one was 3.8" here.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I thought when i outlined tue-weds that was covering both, It looks like its coming in 2 parts, So yeah, 2-4" tues and 2-4"weds unless we get back to a consolidated look, This looks very similar to what we had on 01/03 and that one was 3.8" here.

Sure...

For me, if we came away Thursday morning with a 6" snow pack outta those two days ... I believe at this particular juncture and assortment of leading indicators, that would be a pretty substantial over-achievement.  We'll see...  The thing is, there's an upside here - and as much as it may be hard to wrap one's mind around is that upshot probability is not zero. Poignant to say at this time... because when we've been in the dog house for weeks, it's hard to remember that things can indeed break right, when peering so long through the tainted lens of frustration.

But that upside is that yes... it's not impossible, because there is a kind of "conceptual spread" that does not limit the totality of the mid week from being more.  It's one of those deals... I mean, I think back to some really extraordinary positive busts.  My Meteorological testicles dropped in the 1990s ...that was the golden era of having hopes and dreams shattered by a proclivity in guidance to be overly conservative ... while looking out the window at 15" of head scratching Godly dandruff.  

So, my hunches and suspicious and so forth are still rooted in those experiences... I always consider if there are upsides. It seems off the top of my head there are less positive busts since 2000 ... But there are still some whoppers too...  2005 December .. phew, man, I personally nailed that actually ... (amazing, as I so rarely do)  There was considerable consternation as little as the day before over what would take place... The only thing I missed on that was the Trop fold/110 mph wind event over the Cape. But I pegged the 12"+ in metrowest, and even the sunset with that compact nature of that.

What I'm trying to get at there is there are both modeling, and conceptual understanding, both, parlaying toward less unknown surprises that are of the "good" variety. It's kind of an unfortunate lost charm about the uncertainty of weather forecasting ... Gosh forbid we may one day lose the positive bust altogether... you can win either way. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure...

For me, if we came away Thursday morning with a 6" snow pack outta those two days ... I believe at this particular juncture and assortment of leading indicators, that would be a pretty substantial over-achievement.  We'll see...  The thing is, there's an upside here - and as much as it may be hard to wrap one's mind around is that upshot probability is not zero. Poignant to say at this time... because when we've been in the dog house for weeks, it's hard to remember that things can indeed break right, when peering so long through the tainted lens of frustration.

But that upside is that yes... it's not impossible, because there is a kind of "conceptual spread" that does not limit the totality of the mid week from being more.  It's one of those deals... I mean, I think back to some really extraordinary positive busts.  My Meteorological testicles dropped in the 1990s ...that was the golden era of having hopes and dreams shattered by a proclivity in guidance to be overly conservative ... while looking out the window at 15" of head scratching Godly dandruff.  

So, my hunches and suspicious and so forth are still rooted in those experiences... I always consider if there are upsides. It seems off the top of my head there are less positive busts since 2000 ... But there are still some whoppers too...  2005 December .. phew, man, I personally nailed that actually ... (amazing, as I so rarely do)  There was considerable consternation as little as the day before over what would take place... The only thing I missed on that was the Trop fold/110 mph wind event over the Cape. But I pegged the 12"+ in metrowest, and even the sunset with that compact nature of that.

What I'm trying to get at there is there are both modeling, and conceptual understanding, both, parlaying toward less unknown surprises that are of the "good" variety. It's kind of an unfortunate lost charm about the uncertainty of weather forecasting ... Gosh forbid we may one day lose the positive bust altogether... you can win either way. 

I was referencing NNE/CNE with those numbers, I certainly would not be that bold down in SNE right now, Some of this looks pretty warm the further south you go as the SLP tracks pretty far north initially, And i agree, There is upside potential if we can reverse this current trend but i would think at this point, Some areas, Pike north "could" pull 1-3" in the first s/w if it trends a tad colder as it stands.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM remains rather paltry....just enough to be aggravating and ruin the morning commute.

I mentioned this earlier .. but, I don't think it likely ...particularly in the American cluster as an afterthought, the mid week would improve through the daylight hours of runs.

Hopefully I'm wrong... I hate to see people frustrated ... it would be nice to give them a nice deliciously modeled dystopic bomb at all times... but, here in reality I'm wondering what's being sampled over the Pac south of Alaska.

 

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