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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are quite enthusiastic about 1/13 as well....but obviously that can change, but it's still good to see the ensembles liking the threat.

The mountain is in front of us and we’re all feeling fine.  What can go wrong.....(a lot)

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Just now, weathafella said:

The mountain is in front of us and we’re all feeling fine.  What can go wrong.....(a lot)

The good news is that if 1/8-9 shits the bed, there's another threat behind it, and the pattern is looking to become more favorable as we go deeper into the month. The EPS is starting to look a lot like week 3 on the weeklies at the end of their run....they want to start pushing the NAO negative in addition to the much more favorable N PAC.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I ran out of glue. Only so much a young boy can sniff. 

My in-laws owned a corner store back in the 70's, And had a guy come in and buy 2-3 tubes everyday and my mother in law made the comment one day that he must be building an awful lot of models.................:lol:

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The ensembles actually are getting inside d10 now with the better look.

The N PAC is still kind of ugly, but what changed big time was the more El Nino look down south....but we did know this was a possibility, because if you recall about a week ago, we were discussing how the pattern wasn't total dogcrap because ensembles showed kind of a split flow and some weakness in Canada...almost acting as pseudo blocking. That is basically what is going on with the D9 threat.

 

But N PAC improves rapidly thereafter...it's actually staying on the guidance now for several runs. So I think it's probably real.

 

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