January 2019 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

I still feel after the 7th is when things become better and perhaps later in month when it gets much better. We’re slowly seeing these signs not in la la land,  and getting within 8 days or so. Hopefully nobody expects 70” in 4 weeks but one high end advisory event will do a lot for he mental health of this board.

[NorEastermass128]

You can already start to see on the OP runs how things could turn good later in January. Likely no more running in summer clothes. 

[Greg]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still feel after the 7th is when things become better and perhaps later in month when it gets much better. We’re slowly seeing these signs not in la la land,  and getting within 8 days or so. Hopefully nobody expects 70” in 4 weeks but one high end advisory event will do a lot for he mental health of this board.

I'm still in agreement with many of you guys here.  I just took a quick look at the SST's and analog years and it's actually following a pattern of those years.  It seems if any thing truely substancial happens it wont get really good until mid-late Jan into Feb that you guys have been alluding to.  I can actually see it at this stage, the signal is there.

[Bostonseminole]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still feel after the 7th is when things become better and perhaps later in month when it gets much better. We’re slowly seeing these signs not in la la land,  and getting within 8 days or so. Hopefully nobody expects 70” in 4 weeks but one high end advisory event will do a lot for he mental health of this board.

I'm on the 1/9 bandwagon.. models showing something .. hopefully it can product  6"+

[Greg]

19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I'm on the 1/9 bandwagon.. models showing something .. hopefully it can product  6"+

If that low was to move in a northeasterly track from south of Long Island,  The Hartford to Boston area would be getting blizzard like conditions. However, it is way too far out for that.  Only needs watching at this moment.  Potential is there of course.

[Greg]

Just now, Albert A Clipper said:

My phones says snow in Vermont next weekend, laugh all you want,but it’s called every cutter so far 7 days out. Alexa agrees too. 

Southern or Northern VT?

[weathafella]

I like the split flow showing.  Stops the pacific jet in its tracks and puts it work for us snow geese.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I like the split flow showing.  Stops the pacific jet in its tracks and puts it work for us snow geese.

Split flow is definitely our friend. I do like the look. 

[Greg]

Models seem to have something interesting for the January 3rd through 4th timeframe on Tropical Tidbits. Check it out if you like.

[ScituateWX]

How do the EPS look today in the extended?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

I'm on the 1/9 bandwagon.. models showing something .. hopefully it can product  6"+

Totally plausible....hope its clear that 1/20 is simply the onset of the window for high end potential, but the pattern is progressively improving from here on in. I don't mean that its garbage until 1/20.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ScituateWX said:

How do the EPS look today in the extended?

It’s ok. It had more of a split flow look towards the end which may offer storms, but not terribly cold. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally plausible....hope its clear that 1/20 is simply the onset of the window for high end potential, but the pattern is progressively improving from here on in. I don't mean that its garbage until 1/20.

Yeah, as pattern shifts we should get some chances for sure, they don't have to be 12"+ monsters like me.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s ok. It had more of a split flow look towards the end which may offer storms, but not terribly cold. 

I thought it was pretty ugly myself 

[EastonSN+]

I will have to admit that for the first time I am concerned about the EPS and continued delay to a good pattern. However Don and Isotherm and Ray are steadfast and they are more knowledgeable than I, so until something changes I will have hope.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I thought it was pretty ugly myself 

Still too much Pacific for my liking, but it’s ok.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Someone is trolling

Nope, not trolling at all. I think you have to admit that you take an overly optimistic view on every storm to produce snow. December has come and nearly gone with very little snow to show for it.  Many places in SNE have less than an inch of snow this month. 

[CoastalWx]

I think after 1/7 is the “ok” look anyways. Rays idea of post 1/20 seems in the right direction. 

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I thought it was pretty ugly myself 

It wasn't very good, however given the chaotic nature of the pattern right now, I expect a lot of changes from run to run. 

It's also very possible that most of the area sees nothing through mid Jan or later. The picture will become a lot clearer in 10 days.

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s hard to believe we’ve still got 15-20 days of no snow in New England. Never in anyone’s wildest imagination did they think this would happen this winter. No one 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nope, not trolling at all. I think you have to admit that you take an overly optimistic view on every storm to produce snow. December has come and nearly gone with very little snow to show for it.  Many places in SNE have less than an inch of snow this month. 

True but you are alresdy declaring winter over in December .

[MJO812]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to believe we’ve still got 15-20 days of no snow in New England. Never in anyone’s wildest imagination did they think this would happen this winter. No one 

Blame the mjo

This shouldn't be happening in a weak EL Nino.

We should be swimming in snow.

[NorEastermass128]

Let’s do this. From futility to epicocity. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to believe we’ve still got 15-20 days of no snow in New England. Never in anyone’s wildest imagination did they think this would happen this winter. No one 

Just punt the best weeks of pack preserving winter , we do it every 2-4 years 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Blame the mjo

This shouldn't be happening in a weak EL Nino.

We should be swimming in snow.

Link?

 

i remember the first 3 weeks of January were bad in 2005 but we scored some snow in a shtty pattern until it looked better mid-month.

When in past ninos were we swimming in snow at this point?

[weathafella]

EPS was decent but not great.   It has been oscillating back and forth suggesting epic pattern is still >2 weeks away.

[forkyfork]

take climo and dial it up to 11. blizzards starting last week of january

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Link?

 

i remember the first 3 weeks of January were bad in 2005 but we scored some snow in a shtty pattern until it looked better mid-month.

When in past ninos were we swimming in snow at this point?

I'm just talking out of my ass right now

December's usually suck in EL Nino except for 2002 .

[ORH_wxman]

I thought EPS looked fine. It wasn't a kocin cookbook pattern but we score plenty in that look. I like the split flow look. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I thought EPS looked fine. It wasn't a kocin cookbook pattern but we score plenty in that look. I like the split flow look. 

That’s good enuf for me 

maybe the coast and cape struggle