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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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At least the mid Atlantic isn't killing it either . 

"The American modeling system projects above-average temperatures in Washington for the next 10 days, at least. If that holds true, the region will have gone a full month with above-normal temperatures, uninterrupted. If the streak of above-normal temperatures reaches 30 days, it will be the longest in more than a decade (since Dec. 11 to Jan. 9 in 2006-2007)."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/03/what-winter-above-normal-temperatures-have-ruled-washington-days-counting/?utm_term=.732e1512dea4

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2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

At least the mid Atlantic isn't killing it either . 

"The American modeling system projects above-average temperatures in Washington for the next 10 days, at least. If that holds true, the region will have gone a full month with above-normal temperatures, uninterrupted. If the streak of above-normal temperatures reaches 30 days, it will be the longest in more than a decade (since Dec. 11 to Jan. 9 in 2006-2007)."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/03/what-winter-above-normal-temperatures-have-ruled-washington-days-counting/?utm_term=.732e1512dea4

Notice the record year.

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I’m not trying to be up, down, sideways, diagonal. All I said was next two weeks didn’t look great and they still don’t. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak something in. My concern was when we flip. Let’s remembwr week 3 also isn’t a slam dunk. However, the good news is that this may be the best week 3 I can remember all season. So hopefully this is a sign....but let’s all be reasonable too. If we see good signals for the next 5-7 days, I think we can assume it’s real. 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not trying to be up, down, sideways, diagonal. All I said was next two weeks didn’t look great and they still don’t. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak something in. My concern was when we flip. Let’s remembwr week 3 also isn’t a slam dunk. However, the good news is that this may be the best week 3 I can remember all season. So hopefully this is a sign....but let’s all be reasonable too. If we see good signals for the next 5-7 days, I think we can assume it’s real. 

My hunch is it flips day 8-10 and never goes back.   Or at least doesn’t til some time in March.  I’m not buying the relatively great look at day 8-10 is going to go to crap again when the MJO is in phase 8 and the SOI has more likely than not been negative for almost 2 weeks

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

All those with the standard cold February forecast are jumping all over it. Did anyone anywhere  forecast a warm February ? 

"However, a major stratospheric warming event has begun," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson."

AccuWeather's winter forecast, which was released during the late summer of 2018, did not call for a significant and long-lasting downturn in temperatures until late January and more so during February for the eastern U.S.

At this point, people from the Great Lakes to the Northeast should still expect late January to February to feel like the middle of winter.

“Late January to February will feel like the middle of winter”. You don’t say!

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46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone with 115,000 posts commands power and respect 

Very True......But Scott also proceeds with caution along with many others, we all seem we got a "lift me up", lets hope we all feel the same in the morning or 24 hours from now,  what an emotional roller coaster ! lol

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Regarding early next week, it seems the 50-50 low inducing ridging to it's north.  I assume this is a transient ridge and that the NAO block doesn't get going until later in the month?  But it does look like something that would slow the flow down as it doesn't seem that there is anything upstream that would push this along - is that right?  Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Scott and Will, what do you think caused that PAC jet? I don't think anyone nailed that. I feel like it was the SSW MJO amplification ...like Tom said.

I think the mjo naturally progressed into a region that is conducive to fire the jet up which is once it passes Indonesia area. You also have warmth along the equatorial waters and now these lows all along 50-60N that add some pressure gradient and keep the jet going. The mjo thing may have been enhanced by the SSW like some surmised. I also did not see a big coherent wave traverse eastward and leave this area. It’s still there. I’m sure there are other small scale nuances that I left out, but it’s sort of a feedback process. Stuff like that is impossible to forecast a month or two out.

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I would not BEGIN to gain confidence in this system hitting plowable amounts anywhere in SNE  till Saturday and even then there will be nothing locked in this storms set-up, Sun 0z is when i would have piece of mind seeing this hold to 

we can wish it was 

its pretty much near best case scenario for CNE currently and close for northern SNE , lot more ways for this to shift to crap, than better for those areas

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