January 2019 Discussion

[cut]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? 

they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here.  It's kind of annoying -

You actually just gave this weenie some hope to grab - maybe the shutdown is causing some type of fail by the models in ingesting data and we will all of a sudden return to wintery outlooks when the money starts to flow again!!! 

One can dream right!!!!

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, cut said:

You actually just gave this weenie some hope to grab - maybe the shutdown is causing some type of fail by the models in ingesting data and we are just getting bad data and actually the turn to winter will all of a sudden return when the money starts to flow again!!! 

One an dream right!!!!

That would probably be bad because we want the GEFS to be right. The Euro products aren't affected and they are the ones that look like kaka. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, cut said:

You actually just gave this weenie some hope to grab - maybe the shutdown is causing some type of fail by the models in ingesting data and we are just getting bad data and actually the turn to winter will all of a sudden return when the money starts to flow again!!! 

One an dream right!!!!

I actually did float an idea similar to that about a week ago but I was mainly just asking 'if' that would ever be the case.  

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We don't toss. 

And there's a bunch of ice in there too south of the heavy snow.

 

Tossed deep and far into the Atlantic.  Shit solution.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would probably be bad because we want the GEFS to be right. The Euro products aren't affected and they are the ones that look like kaka. 

Unless the ECM gets it's base data/purchase from the CDC division  - 

then it may actually be the other way around. 

How's that for hope -

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed 1 is not going to cut it.

I don't need a blizzard, a few inches that doesnt melt by noon would be great. I have a 7 year old telling me to make it snow already. She says to me, "that is why we moved to New England right?" Lol, in Delaware she was sledding on construction dirt piles, after 1 inch of snow...

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I don't need a blizzard, a few inches that doesnt melt by noon would be great. I have a 7 year old telling me to make it snow already. She says to me, "that is why we moved to New England right?" Lol, in Delaware she was sledding on construction dirt piles, after 1 inch of snow...

Do it for the children! For heaven’s sake! 

[Typhoon Tip]

EPS across the conus really just looks like it mimics the operational version 

xcept at the very end of course

[CoastalWx]

 Finally some changes we like on the EPS in the 11-15 day. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

S+ and lobster rolls. All FTW.

Catch the first rays of sun to hit the US too this time of year on Mt Cadillac!

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS across the conus really just looks like it mimics the operational version 

 Starts to diverge around day 9 quite significantly. 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Do it for the children! For heaven’s sake! 

Ha, a few years up here and she is spoiled and expects 45"+ every year. We averaged 10"-15"near Dover, DE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah i updated that statement

 

[ORH_wxman]

Nice PNA change for the better on the longer range EPS. 

[MJO812]

The low at 240 off the coast on the eps Instead of the cutter that the op showed.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Starts to diverge around day 9 quite significantly. 

Lol. EPS has a good look for us at D10 while the OP has a November 1950 redux giving us southeasterly gales. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. EPS has a good look for us at D10 while the OP has a November 1950 redux giving us southeasterly gales. 

Gee what would I take lol.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Finally some changes we like on the EPS in the 11-15 day. 

Mini cave?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Mini cave?

So that’s one run. What I would like to see now is the momentum continue. I don’t need massive changes fot the good, but let’s continue to build on this. I do expect some back and forth, but let’s keep the trend line on the positive side. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. EPS has a good look for us at D10 while the OP has a November 1950 redux giving us southeasterly gales. 

I think we all know that the operational version tends to run a little happy amid amplification fields... perhaps owing to it's native charm.  ...I mean, D5 to 10...  Once inside there different

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think we all know that the operational version tends to run a little happy amid amplification fields... perhaps owing to it's native charm.  

Yeah and to be fair, the ensembles have a muted sfc reflection over the OH Valley for a couple frames before it jumps offshore...so there are probably some members that go nuts up into the eastern lakes. It's just there are probably more that look like a Miller B so it eventually "wins" in the mean. 

Either way, I think we have an active pattern. We certainly haven't lacked storm activity even during our shit sandwich...eventually some of these you would think will break more wintry...both by random variance and by continuing descending climo toward peak winter. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and to be fair, the ensembles have a muted sfc reflection over the OH Valley for a couple frames before it jumps offshore...so there are probably some members that go nuts up into the eastern lakes. It's just there are probably more that look like a Miller B so it eventually "wins" in the mean. 

Either way, I think we have an active pattern. We certainly haven't lacked storm activity even during our shit sandwich...eventually some of these you would think will break more wintry...both by random variance and by continuing descending climo toward peak winter. 

If things were warm and dry during this run, I would be worried that we end up dry when the cold finally shows up. Being that we have been wet since July, at some point the cold will meet the storminess and climo will take hold for a time.

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So that’s one run. What I would like to see now is the momentum continue. I don’t need massive changes fot the good, but let’s continue to build on this. I do expect some back and forth, but let’s keep the trend line on the positive side. 

It does kind of build on the small changes  at 0z but I agree continuity is key!

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and to be fair, the ensembles have a muted sfc reflection over the OH Valley for a couple frames before it jumps offshore...so there are probably some members that go nuts up into the eastern lakes. It's just there are probably more that look like a Miller B so it eventually "wins" in the mean. 

Either way, I think we have an active pattern. We certainly haven't lacked storm activity even during our shit sandwich...eventually some of these you would think will break more wintry...both by random variance and by continuing descending climo toward peak winter. 

Omg am I glad you said that!

Jesus ...  I mean I've been wanting to for days but ...it seems this group (if perhaps justifiably so...) is approaching inconsolable...  I was thinking exactly the same thing that even a modulation off that EPS would probably be bigger than people think...

Although that may be a little different but still ...it's also landing on climo like you said. 

then... don't look now but SSW may enter yet... and...  MJO aside, the climo of weak warm ENSO tends to favor after Jan 10 too... 
There's a lot of convergent indicators going on here, but they may not be showing in the physical presentation (or may...haven't cleaved open an ICON solution just yet...) but it seems it's hard to convey this shit when there's a dearth of focus on an actual chart.  

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Omg am I glad you said that!

Jesus ...  I mean I've been wanting to for days but ...it seems this group (if perhaps justifiably so...) is approaching inconsolable...  I was thinking exactly the same thing that even a modulation off that EPS would probably be bigger than people think...

Although that may be a little different but still ...it's also landing on climo like you said. 

then... don't look now but SSW may enter yet... and...  MJO aside, the climo of weak warm ENSO tends to favor after Jan 10 too... 
There's a lot of convergent indicators going on here, but they may not be showing in the physical presentation (or may...haven't cleaved open an ICON solution just yet...) but it seems it's hard to convey this shit when there's a dearth of focus on an actual chart.  

If we caught a few breaks in DEC with some minor/moderate events, this board wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the rest of the winter.  We're in a funk.  Reason doesn't always pair well with funks.  Objectively, looking at what you listed above, we 'should' be ready for a big turnaround.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thankfully there has been like one handful of us that remain steady through all the melts and mumbojumbo.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we caught a few breaks in DEC with some minor/moderate events, this board wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the rest of the winter.  We're in a funk.  Reason doesn't always pair well with funks.  Objectively, looking at what you listed above, we 'should' be ready for a big turnaround.  

I said it a couple days ago and I'll say it again, but if the 1/8 event can find a way to hit SNE pretty hard with high end advisory (or better) snowfall...the collective tenor of the discussion in this forum would change drastically. Even moreso if we see the shift toward more favorable mid-month on the EPS continue the next few days. All of the sudden January would look a lot better with one good event in the bag and the 2nd half of the month looking ok. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we caught a few breaks in DEC with some minor/moderate events, this board wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the rest of the winter.  We're in a funk.  Reason doesn't always pair well with funks.  Objectively, looking at what you listed above, we 'should' be ready for a big turnaround.  

ahahaha... The irreconcilable differences between reason and funk ... match made in hell - 

Yeah... more than less agree.. .but, I also think part of the sensi schtick going on is that if that fails to be the grandeur in specter of peoples dystopian dreams at this point ...heh...  Thing is, a modest turn around with more normal wintry threats would also fit inside the greater-scaled envelope/paradigm shift, too.   

[SnowGoose69]

 The Op Euro and EPS has shown a pretty broad scale trof dropping into the eastern half of the country now for 5 consecutive runs day 8-10.   It really hasn’t had the look of a transient feature at all which is why the 11-15 day EPS has been fishy to me the last 2 days or so.  

[OceanStWx]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would probably be bad because we want the GEFS to be right. The Euro products aren't affected and they are the ones that look like kaka. 

While data ingest is not a problem during the shutdown, what could be an issue is fixing problems that arise.

No development is allowed (hence why the FV3 roll out is pushed back now). A critical failure of the GFS I'm sure could be worked on, but a prominent bias couldn't be worked on.