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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Hopefully we can get that south for the south of Pike crowd... there's plenty of snow up north of NNE so even a 75 mile shift south wouldn't really matter, not a sharp northern gradient so no smoking cirrus fears unless it's like 150-200 miles south.

Stop trying to give away my snow.

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Just now, dendrite said:

No avoiding that one so hopefully it's all snow...looking good for that right now.

Like the direction this is coming from, Kind of a better version of today actually, Pretty well cross haired at this point, Looks like we hold on to all snow so far, The only real question that needs to be answered is how much.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the low nukes out. Honestly, with that H5 look I bet it would nuke sooner in reality. 

Obviously this is devils advocate though since we are 5 days out. 

If I could get an advisory snow that wouldn't melt hours later...I'd hit it and run. Don't need a foot. Just a blanket of white for a few days.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the low nukes out. Honestly, with that H5 look I bet it would nuke sooner in reality. 

Obviously this is devils advocate though since we are 5 days out. 

I'm near two edges...better dynamics to northeast as it goes to town, and more snow just to the north in colder profiles.

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28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

January 2007 the cherry blossoms on the hill by the Brighton Marine Hospital were I full bloom.  February and March were frigid.

Nov. 1-Jan. 13 at my place ran 6° AN with 11.0" of snow.  From then thru the Patriots' Day storm it was -5° with 84.3" snow.   Ironically, the previous "winter" was just the opposite, for snow anyway, with 45.0" by Jan. 31 and all of 7.8" thereafter.  2nd lowest for snow and at the bottom for SDDs.  (Hard to believe any winter parameter was worse than in 2015-16.)

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm near two edges...better dynamics to northeast as it goes to town, and more snow just to the north in colder profiles.

If this was like 36 hours out on that look i would be hedging higher amounts for you and probably a lot of SNE given that synoptic look. You would probably take forever to mix with sleet or never change at all. But who knows what this will look like in 2 days. All it takes a little weaker 50/50 or some other nuance and we're talking a non-event or nuisance event washed away. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If this was like 36 hours out on that look i would be hedging higher amounts for you and probably a lot of SNE given that synoptic look. You would probably take forever to mix with sleet or never change at all. But who knows what this will look like in 2 days. All it takes a little weaker 50/50 or some other nuance and we're talking a non-event or nuisance event washed away. 

Agree. I think we'll finally catch a break here....getting close to go-time.

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Yeah so this run has a lot of mechanical power along the 45th to 50th parallels, with a bit of an unusually "left alone" underneath look in the southern regions.  

Euro with warm 850s ubiquitous S...while neutral-negative undulating within a progressive pattern along the Can/U.S. border. But I like the D5 --> 6 staying open at least...and then if/when there's closure the associated surface cyclone(s) remain weakly cohesive.  This runs seems to nuder the ability to generate a deep surface system ...probably owing to the fact that the flow is really not very compressible S /SE ...keeping any surface reflection from maximizing via curvature feed backs.  

How about the raging sou'easta late in the frames?   huh - yeah...  just zactly what is deserved - 

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol move the Pittsburg, NH snow down to you and it's the same amount ;).  We've got some decent wiggle room right now if you put 6"+ as the end goal.

No thanks. I always prefer to be closer to the mix line in these things near the better isentropic lift.

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would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? 

they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here.  It's kind of annoying -

Oh, duh - never mind.

Maybe cuz it's January you dumb asshole 

Mm, yeah..that doesn't seem to be it either though.  Seems their off -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? 

they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here.  It's kind of annoying -

I heard Joe Ciofi talk about this on his youtube video - I think different agencies had funding last different amounts of time.

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