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January 2019 Discussion


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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Which is utopia compared to 1995

Yeah, I was in fifth grade. I don't remember anything specific about that winter except that I would sit and stare longingly out the classroom window at the barren landscape and pray for snow that never came. Sixth grade was awesome though. Felt like two day school weeks all winter.

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Well, as much as this has blown since November, it doesn't compare to the soul-rending horror that was January '13. That continuous, unyielding, relentless suckage on the back of the worst winter in Boston's history had even the coolest customers swinging from the Tobin. I am not ready to wave the white flag on this winter yet. That said, if we hit Feb 1 and I still haven't cleared 10" on the season, I'm all in favor of a March '12 style torch in which to ride off into the dewy, nape-tanning sunset. Hell, I've already got bees coming out of hibernation and daffodils starting to poke through the leaves in my garden. Might as well add a few girls in sundresses to the mix.

I've noticed bees for the last week or so. And the grass on the front lawn has greened up some.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The PV even down to 150mb (the lowest level) on the stratosphere diagnostics page is mangled on the euro. I'd be surprised if we have no trophospheric response. 

I get all of the consternation, but I still feel really, really good about things. I urge folks to please hang with it.

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Euro making a nice step back in right direction. I'm honestly surprised there isn't a bit better sfc reflection southeast with all that PVA into the Delmarva. But frigid high and some front end snow with likely wedged interior. 

All snow for CNE/NNE

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Euro MJO does have more "stability" in its outlooks.  It seems to maintain continuity better but I haven't dug around for any specific verification/comparisons in the matter either. 

THORPEX had some good stuff but it's pretty crusty now.  No new verification data in 4 years so it is missing many of the recent modeling upgrades.

Verification tool:  http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO_score.html

Paper on methodology and outcomes:  Matsueda_et_al-2011-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf

Current data presentation:  http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO.html

Great 21-day lookback: http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/S2S_MJO.html  

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1995 had a decent February.  We had a huge coastal that hugged but many areas got 18+.  Even BOS had 6+.

He was talking about January ... 

I mean... most of what's driving the tenor in here on "!Jan 3rd!" is the impatience of addiction - ask the Methadone clinic patient to just wait 10 minutes for their next dose and see how well that goes ... 

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol Bastardi just Melted on Weatherbell.  Says if the pattern doesn't start to change in about two weeks....he says his forecast is a Huge bust and Wrong.  Guy went off on how everything is lining up...but modeling just continues to get worse.   

 

Oh the Irony!!  

I'm not surprised that he has become worried. On Twitter he hasn't been as gung  ho lately. I thought much of his forecast was overly optimistic. He is biased towards cold and snow and I think it comes into play in his winter forecasts. And I do agree with him in regards to needing to see some changes in the next couple of weeks. 

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1 minute ago, das said:

THORPEX had some good stuff but it's pretty crusty now.  No new verification data in 4 years so it is missing many of the recent modeling upgrades.

Verification tool:  http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO_score.html

Paper on methodology and outcomes:  Matsueda_et_al-2011-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf

Current data presentation:  http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO.html

Great 21-day lookback: http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/S2S_MJO.html  

Das is good! Thanks man.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah better look for sure. It's weaker which maybe is a trend we want it seems.

I bet you'd see a more defined sfc reflection sooner to our south than what it shows. You have the baroclinic zone already set up south with the frigid high and then we have legit PVA into Delmarva/s NJ area...yet the euro wants to keep the sfc low dominant over interior an extra 6-12 hours....doubtful. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I bet you'd see a more defined sfc reflection sooner to our south than what it shows. You have the baroclinic zone already set up south with the frigid high and then we have legit PVA into Delmarva/s NJ area...yet the euro wants to keep the sfc low dominant over interior an extra 6-12 hours....doubtful. 

Yeah I completely see what you mean. That kick out or ejection of PVA offshore is usually key for that, and that's what it shows. 

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