Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 5.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've been talking about the MJO as a "constructive" or "destructive" interference on the planetary atmospheric system for years now... 

I'm assuming we're just making conversation at this point.  

In any case, personally I'm hypothesizing that the Euro's low amplitude resolution heading deeper into phase 7 may have something to do with just that... The eastern transition to the western hemisphere doesn't really support that wave space ... at least through week 1/10 days... After that, we'll see if that phase 8 sticks.  

One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Euro MJO does have more "stability" in its outlooks.  It seems to maintain continuity better but I haven't dug around for any specific verification/comparisons in the matter either. 

Also, just so's folks might approach an understanding .. positive and negative interference is not absolute.  Saying either does not preclude anything.  If the Pacific wants to be in a AA phase, and the Indian Ocean farts out a wave, it may initially be suppressed some ... impetus on some. And vice versa of course.  As Scott or whomever that was mentioned, ...it adds momentum, or ...robs it away... wave interference is offset.  Sometimes when the wave seems to crash inward into that inner detection boundary region it's really just the surrounding medium doing a proficient dampening.  

Jan Feb 15 were in the circle of death, I don't understand snow gooses post

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone hanging on to what happened in 2015 as hope. Imagine if 2015 didn't happen. The melts would be epic if not for the hope of a 2015 like flip to snow. GFS for next Tuesday looks like a decent thump of snow followed by drizzle. Really need the high to the north to remain stout to prevent the primary from gaining too much latitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Gotchya.  I'll take any accumulating early next week to break the ice...spirits will lift substantially if we get a few to several, followed by a better looking LR.

That’s my man!  You were dripping on the verge of a full fledged melt!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Everyone hanging on to what happened in 2015 as hope. Imagine if 2015 didn't happen. The melts would be epic if not for the hope of a 2015 like flip to snow. GFS for next Tuesday looks like a decent thump of snow followed by drizzle. Really need the high to the north to remain stout to prevent the primary from gaining too much latitude.

2015 is the most recent example but there's a pretty long history of weak/moderate El Niño's with big time second halves. Obviously '15 is the extreme scenario but using Boston as a reference, 2003 also had over 50" after 1/20, so did 1969, 1978, and 2005. That's a big number for BOS and they all happened in weak or mod El Niño's. Even most of the weak/mod Ninos that failed to have monster second halves had drastic pattern changes for the better but they just weren't able to produce big snow with them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...