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January 2019 Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

How we looking for an ice storm this weekend? 

I’m praying you’re joking 

potential is there still for Tuesday 

given this winter . Saturday will trend north and stronger and rain harder with perfect track for mid level smoke job and Tuesday will trend further N with primary and faster SE/E w high pressure 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Look at 21z to 0z Sunday on Gfs

crushing band for -i 95 

925’s so close 850’s so close 

35F rain ?

Euro didn't look bad for that one either, GFS took a step in the right direction too, Pretty marginal, But could work, Wouldn't take much.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro didn't look bad for that one either, GFS took a step in the right direction too, Pretty marginal, But could work, Wouldn't take much.

Soundings are very close, they look fine in ORH/Monads at 925 and need just a smidge at 850

Looking at things , you got a decent low in perfect position . If this can wiggle a bit further north the ORH and Monads could score an advisory event . It’s JAN 5’th then doesn’t take much at all at 1K 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will is there anything that would make Saturday more favorable (that’s possible lol) for Parts of SNE / S NH

Hope models underestimate the erosion of cold air. Honestly, the gfs is nearly a perfect output for track...we just completely got disconnected from the polar jet so we end up with a torched airmass. It's admittedly close in the interior to a flash to paste but I'd want to see some really big UVVs as we get closer...that's really what we would need. Punch like 50 micro bars per second through H6 and we will talk. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That track on the 12z uncle for the 5th if we have any cold at all would be interesting, Especially up this way.

It got more amplified on guidance the past 12 hours. Looks like mostly a rainer here. It never turns into a proper 50/50 to keep the baroclinic zone south for the 8th for SNE. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Horrible pattern on the gfs and cmc

 

I thought a weak EL Nino was supposed to be great for our area.

 

Everything is going wrong.

Yeah and the Titanic was supposed to be unsinkable too. It's funny when humans think they have something figured out and then nature says "hold my beer"

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Horrible pattern on the gfs and cmc

 

I thought a weak EL Nino was supposed to be great for our area.

 

Everything is going wrong.

And Sometimes that's just how it goes.....cheer up Anthony in another hour the Euro will crush your hopes even further!!! LOL.   Sometimes you just have to laugh.  This is one of them.  

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Winter/Jan 2015 was a piece of Dog Terd too...for the whole month right up until the 26-27th when the Blizzard hit...then it went Ape Shit after that.  There were tons of melts during that January month too....

 

One thing we do know....it can change quick in either direction.  So it's way way too early to give up on the 3rd of January.   But so far it hasn't been pretty, but neither was 13 or 15 either....

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