January 2019 Discussion

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Close the shades and open them on 1/10. 

I don't know next week might thread the needle.  If not we wait until mid month 

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I don't know next week might thread the needle.  If not we wait until mid month 

I see a couple opportunities if we get lucky, our luck on these marginal events has to change sometime.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I don't know next week might thread the needle.  If not we wait until mid month 

There’s no threading any needle. Rains to Maine’s for many more days.

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no threading any needle. Rains to Maine’s for many more days.

I’m in Maine now..no rain here.  6 inches yesterday up here, was real nice.  

 

Just two days ago the pattern was here you said, with no more cutters or rain...man you flip and flop more than a fish out of water....

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m in Maine now..no rain here.  6 inches yesterday up here, was real nice.  

 

Just two days ago the pattern was here you said, with no more cutters or rain...man you flip and flop more than a fish out of water....

And at that point it was obvious that there was still going to be cutters. 

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m in Maine now..no rain here.  6 inches yesterday up here, was real nice.  

 

Just two days ago the pattern was here you said, with no more cutters or rain...man you flip and flop more than a fish out of water....

Nice.  Where in Maine?

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no threading any needle. Rains to Maine’s for many more days.

How bad was the recent ice storm for you?  I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

How bad was the recent ice storm for you?  I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

Lol its not even Jan and its toast. Can you provide some scientific reasoning and add to the discussion or are you just going to show up to bust balls and throw sh it at the wall?

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

How bad was the recent ice storm for you?  I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

January is toast ?

Stop posting man

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

January is toast ?

Stop posting man

Well please explain what does look good about January...…..You have been calling for one storm after another to deliver snow and it's been a near shutout.

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

How bad was the recent ice storm for you?  I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

It was nasty up north where we had it forecast. You’ve been exposed as a fraud here kid. Take your ball and head home lol

[masonwoods]

28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol its not even Jan and its toast. Can you provide some scientific reasoning and add to the discussion or are you just going to show up to bust balls and throw sh it at the wall?

Don't take the bait!  That NY turd must be getting ignored in his own forum so he's coming into the New England forum to get attention.

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

Close the shades and open them on 1/10. 

I think we will bring home a light-to-moderate event or two before then, although any snow will be pasty at best.  Gotta love the split flow depicted by GEFS and EPS towards the 8th or so.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well please explain what does look good about January...…..You have been calling for one storm after another to deliver snow and it's been a near shutout.

I guess you haven't been following Isotherm and the other Mets on here. 

Check out Don's post from this morning.

Why are people jumping off a bridge in early January ? It's annoying.

Mjo is about to go into 6 and then move along. Things should be favorable by next weekend 

[ORH_wxman]

I think the real premium pattern will be setting up in the 2nd half of the month but we are already improved quite a bit before that. Keep in mind we don't need this obscenely perfect Kocin Cookbook pattern in early to mid January to have good snow threats in New England. That's getting to peak winter climo. Near normal is plenty good enough here. It's probably even more beneficial for us if the best of it holds off so we can get the 4-6 weeks of premium pattern to line up so that it includes all of February when climo starts rising again somewhat. 

We are getting some good PNA action though by Jan 4-10 so we could easily score a solid event in there somewhere. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Omega melt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the real premium pattern will be setting up in the 2nd half of the month but we are already improved quite a bit before that. Keep in mind we don't need this obscenely perfect Kocin Cookbook pattern in early to mid January to have good snow threats in New England. That's getting to peak winter climo. Near normal is plenty good enough here. It's probably even more beneficial for us if the best of it holds off so we can get the 4-6 weeks of premium pattern to line up so that it includes all of February when climo starts rising again somewhat. 

We are getting some good PNA action though by Jan 4-10 so we could easily score a solid event in there somewhere. 

Absolutely. Decent shot of some snow before 1/20....don't need a KU pattern in early January to see a respectable event. 

I'd also rather have the most quinessentially perfect pattern align with peak snowfall climo, which is early Feb...especially during an el nino.

[NorEastermass128]

Heck, I’d be happy with 2-4 at this point. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. Decent shot of some snow before 1/20....don't need a KU pattern in early January to see a respectable event. 

I'd also rather have the most quinessentially perfect pattern align with peak snowfall climo, which is early Feb...especially during an el nino.

Will it shutoff end of Feb or continue through March? I think many fear that a 1.5 month winter is all we get. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will it shutoff end of Feb or continue through March? I think many fear is that a 1.5 month winter is all we get. 

I think I had like a normal March.... the most extreme pattern is over by then.

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will it shutoff end of Feb or continue through March? I think many fear that a 1.5 month winter is all we get. 

If we double climo normal during the 6 weeks I’m ok.   Unless we’re doing big snows in March I’m good with warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely. Decent shot of some snow before 1/20....don't need a KU pattern in early January to see a respectable event. 

I'd also rather have the most quinessentially perfect pattern align with peak snowfall climo, which is early Feb...especially during an el nino.

This is exactly why I don't get the consternation  over my +1to+2 Jan call for SNE....its an inverse December and is immaterial to the highly anticipated period.

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON looks good for next week.   GFS looks like crap

[ineedsnow]

12z Canadian brings that system north also

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I guess you haven't been following Isotherm and the other Mets on here. 

Check out Don's post from this morning.

Why are people jumping off a bridge in early January ? It's annoying.

Mjo is about to go into 6 and then move along. Things should be favorable by next weekend 

As annoying as you  proclaiming  that every storm is going to be a snow producer.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As annoying as you  proclaiming  that every storm is going to be a snow producer.

Someone is trolling

[scoob40]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the real premium pattern will be setting up in the 2nd half of the month but we are already improved quite a bit before that. Keep in mind we don't need this obscenely perfect Kocin Cookbook pattern in early to mid January to have good snow threats in New England. That's getting to peak winter climo. Near normal is plenty good enough here. It's probably even more beneficial for us if the best of it holds off so we can get the 4-6 weeks of premium pattern to line up so that it includes all of February when climo starts rising again somewhat. 

We are getting some good PNA action though by Jan 4-10 so we could easily score a solid event in there somewhere. 

What's ur O-U for ORH January-March ? 50" ?

[Typhoon Tip]

For what it's worth ...

Good news regarding the stratosphere up north ... well, good news for winter enthusiasm   Tough to keep in mind, suppose 85.3% of society loathes the climate at this time of year, so to be fair to them ... bad news would be more like it.

The 1 thru 10 hPa sigma level winds are coming into the observations with a mid ranged easterly anomaly.  That's an important first signal to impending PV weakening. Also, as the total mass of the thermal plume is also emerged(ing), it's pretty evident that while it may not be top tier comparing to other years with SSW in the past four decades, it's large in physical volume.  It's comparable in volume-dimension alone to other propagating examples in the data set.  

I found it interesting that no sooner do these observations become clear ... the CPC AO completely discontinued it's previous dynamics with that indexes outlook. The vaster majority of members are less than zero, whereas just twenty-four hours ago ..they were all positive out through the end of week two.  It's the character of that continuity break that sticks out for me... namely, yesterday, not only were the members positive, but they were reasonably well-clustered too.  Though this new layout is more mop ended, it "might" be the beginnings of the exertion on the AO/PV.  

It's not anything to hang a hat on... but, I was looking (personally) for these initial observations to come into focus and seeing that they have, that helps my personal confidence that this SSW may down well and precede -AO.  

Just as a caution... the usual caveats apply:  if -AO succeeds... is it going to be a mid-latitude(s) cold delivery on our side of the hemisphere... first, or delayed... ?  I think much of that will come down to the MJO/Pacific arc of events and whether those time well.   If the MJO comes around to Phase 7-8-1 ... ?2, those tend to correlate with -AO phases anyway, do to the fact that those phase spaces load upticks in cyclogen/enhancing easterly flow in the means along the 50 to 60 N parallel --> defaulting the AO negative when that occurs.  So, if those can come around when the AO is dropping anyway?  LOOK OUT

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For what it's worth ...

Good news regarding the stratosphere up north ... well, good news for winter enthusiasm   Tough to keep in mind, suppose 85.3% of society loathes the climate at this time of year, so to be fair to them ... bad news would be more like it.

The 1 thru 10 hPa sigma level winds are coming into the observations with a mid ranged easterly anomaly.  That's an important first signal to impending PV weakening. Also, as the total mass of the thermal plume is also emerged(ing), it's pretty evident that while it may not be top tier comparing to other years with SSW in the past four decades, it's large in physical volume.  It's comparable in volume-dimension alone to other propagating examples in the data set.  

I found it interesting that no sooner do these observations become clear ... the CPC AO completely discontinued it's previous dynamics with that indexes outlook. The vaster majority of members are less than zero, whereas just twenty-four hours ago ..they were all positive out through the end of week two.  It's the character of that continuity break that sticks out for me... namely, yesterday, not only were the members positive, but they were reasonably well-clustered too.  Though this new layout is more mop ended, it "might" be the beginnings of the exertion on the AO/PV.  

It's not anything to hang a hat on... but, I was looking (personally) for these initial observations to come into focus and see that they have, that helps my personal confidence that this SSW may down well and precede -AO.  

Just as a caution... the usual caveats apply:  is this any -AO going to be cold delivery on our side of the hemisphere... first, or delayed... ?  I think much of that will come down to the MJO/Pacific arc of events and whether those time well.   If the MJO comes around to Phase 7-8-1 ... ?2, those tend to correlate with -AO phases anyway, do to the fact that those phase spaces load upticks in cyclogen/enhancing easterly flow in the means along the 50 to 60 N parallel --> defaulting the AO negative when that occurs.  So, if those can come around when the AO is dropping anyway?  LOOK OUT

Encouraging - thanks for the insight.

[SnoSki14]

Models don't look as atrocious post NYE cutter particularly those north of 41N, climo helps. 

It they could improve just a bit more then there would probably be something to talk about. Just gotta get the MJO to phase 7 and things will look a lot better.