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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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I’m mildly optimistic that we are turning the corner up here, though it seems the frustration may last for southern New England. Usually these last several years we transition into something where we’re getting misses or light to moderate events while southern New England is getting crushed and northern New England is getting upslope. Maybe this year we get to get the heavy storms for a little while before everyone else to our south joins in

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But changes on the eps occurred too-each in the others direction.

I thought it wasn’t that great though. Even at the end heights were lower in the GOAK compared to 12z. Unfortunately, we can’t catch a break. Maybe it just snaps the other way, but I’m not a fan of the overall stuff that I see. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought it wasn’t that great though. Even at the end heights were lower in the GOAK compared to 12z. Unfortunately, we can’t catch a break. Maybe it just snaps the other way, but I’m not a fan of the overall stuff that I see. 

I can only compare 24 hours and those changes are pretty good.  Overall a serviceable look to me but we know where that’s brought  us so far....

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I can only compare 24 hours and those changes are pretty good.  Overall a serviceable look to me but we know where that’s brought  us so far....

When the mean barely has the 540 line overhead with SW flow  in the heart of January, it’s usually not good.

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Gefs are definately nice, retros the AK lower heights to a more favorable position and pops the pna. eps not as robust but you can see at the tail end it begins to fade the AK trough a bit. If this was mid Jan already and we continue to squint out some positives in the 11-15 period then we in trouble...but for now, we stay the course.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

This winter is NNE's revenge eh? After years of watching SNE cash in on coastal bombs, NNE finally gets the fun while SNE suffers.

NNE isn't have a great season. They had a great November and a bad December. It's merely close to normal there overall while SNE has been getting the shaft (though interior SNE did pretty well in November). 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why?He calls for an AN Jan with prolific snows starting the 20th. EPS GEFS falling in line. The 6Z GFS run shows the potential as we transition out of the shi te 4 -6 week pattern cycle

Steve.. in all seriousness .. it’s falling apart. We are closing in on losing January. When I see Will and Scooter and Ryan mailing it in and depressed .. I don’t start popping winter wood. I certainly hope Ray and you are right 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Steve.. in all seriousness .. it’s falling apart. We are closing in on losing January. When I see Will and Scooter and Ryan mailing it in and depressed .. I don’t start popping winter wood. I certainly hope Ray and you are right 

Lol ok then I would if I was you move on, put some lesco down, find some new hobby.

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 I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol ok then I would if I was you move on, put some lesco down, find some new hobby.

That’s dumb. No one is moving on. But we can admit things are falling apart. All I know is when you post about Maine in early January instead of your annual Morch posting bonanza about how much snow Sugarloaf has been getting.. things aren’t going well in SNE

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. 

We are definitely reduxing February 2015 now specifically because you said that - as in personally ...  Yup, it's like that scene in the Greek mythology where some hubris challenges Aphrodite's beauty... pissing off Zeus, who then looks the other way while Hades dooms civilization to the perils of The Crackin'  ...  

Scott so arrogantly decried winter is over that now...  having to base our world perception on logic and reason, we have no choice but to pretend that he did not just unleash the winter Crackin ... 

Nice goin' buckwheat   

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I didn’t mail it in, I just don’t like what I see for the next couple weeks. It’s becoming clear to me though, that an epic winter is going by the wayside. It’s getting statistically tougher and tougher to get big amounts for the total season numbers.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have a good stretch though. 

Not scoring some events in marginal patterns really hurts the higher end upside potential in winter totals. You really need a Feb '15 to make up for it. Years like 2004-2005  and 2002-2003 scored multiple events in semi crappy patterns. I'm hoping next week can pan out but overnight trend wasn't good. 

One solid warning event prior to 1/20 would go a long ways in getting back on track a little bit. 

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