snowgeek Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The big key for 1/8 is the 50/50 low that develops from the weekend storm. That's exceptionally important for holding the Quebec confluence. Agree. Gotta hold that high in place like the 0Z Euro. 12Z backed off a smidge. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. We’ll take it. In a winter that won’t winter.. beggars can’t be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take it. In a winter that won’t winter.. beggars can’t be choosers I’ll take blue ice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take it. In a winter that won’t winter.. beggars can’t be choosers People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. Yeah I could def see some ice with that setup for a time. We'll see what it looks like as we get closer. It's kind of weird we've been tracking this thing for like 2 days already but it's still 6 days out. Long time to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. No surprise that our two good decembers in the past 6 years were both La Niña or cold neutral (2013 and 2017) and the 3 garbage decembers were all El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I could def see some ice with that setup for a time. We'll see what it looks like as we get closer. It's kind of weird we've been tracking this thing for like 2 days already but it's still 6 days out. Long time to go yet. Yeah this signal has been there for a few days now, but like you said still a long way to go. If the synoptic setup verifies as is with that omega-block look that high to the north goes nowhere. This would be a rather dynamic (and fast moving) system and I'm sure there would be one heck of a frontogenetic band. It would be nice if that system could like change the pattern a bit but even days after it still looks like the central part of the country remains in the favor for cyclogenesis. More Plains blizzards and SE severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes please: That looks like that would have been awesome here in Newtown, I wonder how much they got? I spent 25 years in Millersville PA and only experienced 9 double digit storms from 83 to 2008 (93, 96, 2003 were all 20+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No surprise that our two good decembers in the past 5 years were both La Niña or cold neutral (2013 and 2017) and the 3 garbage decembers were all El Niño. Anytime there is a Nino on hand December is pretty much cooked. Plus when you factor in unfavorable blocking/stratosphere we have had as well as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. I like the red! Congratulations on becoming an official meteorologist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I will never forget you standing in the highway just about creaming our pants on TV with the best snow growth ever. I was dryslotted at the time but somehow as saved by a band and ended up with 13 or so Even I know that Clip of Ryan standing there as dinner plate dendrites ripped down at 4/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: That looks like that would have been awesome here in Newtown, I wonder how much they got? I spent 25 years in Millersville PA and only experienced 9 double digit storms from 83 to 2008 (93, 96, 2003 were all 20+) Prob 2FT. Everyone from NYC to HFD cashed in with 20+. In a bad pattern and a bad winter, we was lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. Congrats on your new colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18Z FV3 shows one way this could not work out. Confluence in Canada is weaker, high is weaker and further north and drifts east. This allows low to track further north and secondary doesn’t get going far enough south to lock in cold air. I find this scenario more believable in the recent regime than a stronger high and a further south snowier scenario for more weenies. I’d rather expect less and get pleasantly surprised if this works out lol. Easier on the psyche. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, snowgeek said: 18Z FV3 shows one way this could not work out. Confluence in Canada is weaker, high is weaker and further north and drifts east. This allows low to track further north and secondary doesn’t get going far enough south to lock in cold air. I find this scenario more believable in the recent regime than a stronger high and a further south snowier scenario for more weenies. I’d rather expect less and get pleasantly surprised if this works out lol. Easier on the psyche. . Other than the mental psychology, I agree with this post. I right now would be pleasantly surprised if I see more than 1” and a few hrs glaze in K ASH. Climo is certainly creeping toward max winter , so more icing certainly possible. I would honestly be very surprised if this sustained as a plowable event for pike Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Other than the mental psychology, I agree with this post. I right now would be pleasantly surprised if I see more than 1” and a few hrs glaze in K ASH. Climo is certainly creeping toward max winter , so more icing certainly possible. I would honestly be very surprised if this sustained as a plowable event for pike Area. ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm. It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE. However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it. The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm. It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE. However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it. The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak". I’ll make it simple. Shit pattern gives you shit results. I do think the risk is more on the warmer side, but it has a few things going for it like decent confluence to our northeast and a cold surface to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll make it simple. Shit pattern gives you shit results. I do think the risk is more on the warmer side, but it has a few things going for it like decent confluence to our northeast and a cold surface to start. One time a scooter shit streak could help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm. It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE. However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it. The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak". How quickly things change. Especially those who are running hot this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How quickly things change. Especially those who are running hot this decade. Love the consternation in this thread. Good coping mechanism post meltdowns. Watch the Euro trends the next 2 days, it will show you the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 They’re allowing shit to be said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: They’re allowing shit to be said! Well, if the pattern fits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Well, if the pattern fits.... Shithole pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Shithole pattern? I turned some words off months ago. We're all adults here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 00z GGEM kind of squashes the D5-6 system....basically just an advisory event for SNE/CNE and a little less for NNE, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z GGEM kind of squashes the D5-6 system....basically just an advisory event for SNE/CNE and a little less for NNE, Icon is also colder Models seeing the confluence to the north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: I turned some words off months ago. We're all adults here. F**king cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Icon is also colder Models seeing the confluence to the north ? GFS is pretty amped this run...so I don't think it's any specific trend. Even GFS is frigid at surface for a long while despite it's excessive warm bias in the low levels...the high means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is pretty amped this run...so I don't think it's any specific trend. Even GFS is frigid at surface for a long while despite it's excessive warm bias in the low levels...the high means business. Alot of cad on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Gfs also has a similiar system for the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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