tamarack Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 15 hours ago, dryslot said: I was closer to my december climo in November, And i'm closer to my Nov climo in december, So its like the 2 mos were flip flopped. November had 3" more snow than my Dec avg, and this current event finally got my Dec snow above the Novie avg. Both months will finish BN for temps, Nov by 5.5° and Dec probably about -2 once I interpolate the data I missed while in SNJ - was running nearly 6° BN thru the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think we need to see deeper into January before get worried. Honestly, this is eerily similar to 2014-2015 in a lot of ways...in fact, December was colder and had more opportunities than 2014 did, but we whiffed on them so we ended up with similar near-zero snowfall that 2014 had. Early January 2015 had big arctic cold shots mixed with torching cutters....the pattern was changing, but we were still getting on the wrong side of the initial arctic gradient...i.e., chaos continued to conspire against us even though we probably could have easily gotten a nice SWFE if the nuances lined up correctly. Finally the PNA ridge established itself further east by late January and we were off to the races. Again, I'm not predicting we will repeat that 100" in 3 weeks type insanity...but even a much toned down version (like 50" in 5 weeks) would obviously completely change the tenor of the winter. I don't see signs of failure yet in the progression. If it starts showing up, I'm definitely going to post my concerns. Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now I'm sure it helped some...but honestly, the GOA temps weren't that different...the bigger difference was deeper cold to the SW and 2015 also had a ton of warmth of California...and I think it's somewhat overrated anyway. We've seen prolific 2nd half Ninos with only marginal positive PDOs (1978, 2005, 1958...and 1969 actually had a negative PDO) But here's the MJO progression in 2015...red is January....you can actually see a pretty similar path being progged (esp by the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 And notice it wasn’t strong on that diagram. It was perfect. I still don’t see a huge reason to panic. It seems like things are more favorable after 1-7 or so. Maybe it waits a few days later, but overall that seems to be when things get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And notice it wasn’t strong on that diagram. It was perfect. I still don’t see a huge reason to panic. It seems like things are more favorable after 1-7 or so. Maybe it waits a few days later, but overall that seems to be when things get better. Nobody would be panicking either if we just happened to score a couple overrunning events out of this two week period between 12/22-1/6....which definitely could have happened (see 12/31-1/1 setup tweaked slightly...or even today). The panic gets louder when the snow doesn't fall...it has nothing to do with the actual pattern as history has shown us ala January 2015 and January 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody would be panicking either if we just happened to score a couple overrunning events out of this two week period between 12/22-1/6....which definitely could have happened (see 12/31-1/1 setup tweaked slightly...or even today). The panic gets louder when the snow doesn't fall...it has nothing to do with the actual pattern as history has shown us ala January 2015 and January 2013. Yeah some bad luck with a dash of bad pattern. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Doesn’t bob have good snow juju he should start the next thread for a event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Pickles should get new fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 It looks like the 12z EURO wants to stir up a nor'easter on the 5th of January. Pretty interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Pretty nice EPS run today...arctic heights much higher than the 00z run and a nice PNA pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like the 12z EURO wants to stir up a nor'easter on the 5th of January. Pretty interesting setup. Nevermind, looks too warm for a snow threat, looks like more rain, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like the 12z EURO wants to stir up a nor'easter on the 5th of January. Pretty interesting setup. Rains to James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Gotta hope ensembles are correct. All with full steam ahead 1/10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Gotta hope ensembles are correct. All with full steam ahead 1/10 and beyond. One day we are riding high, the next day people want to jump......I get it, most of us love winter/snow, its out of our control, nothing worse then 33F with rain/drizzle............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Gotta hope ensembles are correct. All with full steam ahead 1/10 and beyond. That’s the day. Mark your calendars with a footlong dong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s the day. Mark your calendars with a footlong dong. If only....I think we’re starting to get closer so 1/10 has some credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Judah and Ventrice! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6536269/Experts-say-disruptions-polar-vortex-cause-temperatures-plummet-US.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Right. Right. Because they say what's been already ubiquitously known its oh my god time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 NWS CPC "The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 We’ve been Judah cursed....winter cancelled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Our first chance at an inch of snow looks to come the beginning of the New Year's Day storm, front end accumulating snows, as a warming airmass with a warm front approaching with precipitation hits the cold air remaining with the high to the northeast not ready to budge. Could be interesting, as the track of the storm is not that far to the north of the MA pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Our first chance at an inch of snow looks to come the beginning of the New Year's Day storm, front end accumulating snows, as a warming airmass with a warm front approaching with precipitation hits the cold air remaining with the high to the northeast not ready to budge. Could be interesting, as the track of the storm is not that far to the north of the MA pike region. Easy on the pre NYE champagne there bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Easy on the pre NYE champagne there bud. It probably won't happen, but something to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I'm currently going to enjoy the Blizzard Juno thread we have on here. To prepare me for the winter, I miss ClinchLeatherwood, aka Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 00z GFS might be sniffing out NYD + magic on January 4-5th period, watch out for this storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Nevermind the GFS still crushes the storm out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 0z Canadian was close for the day 6 threat!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z Canadian was close for the day 6 threat!!! Same with the 00z GFS, very close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Close the shades and open them on 1/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Close the shades and open them on 1/10. You are most likely right Jerry, have a great night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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