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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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it's got the rudimentary SPV near 60/90 with down stream rather abrupt onset NAO block ... that's clearly PV stressing causing that - no question

This is coalescing around the idea of a more abrupt "detection" usurping the previous dynamic. ... fun words for more a sudden onset pattern change (perhaps..) I mean no promises... It's an idea -

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Crash at Leo’s?

I have a 2 bedroom apt...

Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run. 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I have a 2 bedroom apt...

Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run. 

Lab city then off to the Gaspe.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow ... I can't wait - ...the EPS might be interesting. 

although mm the oper. may leap on that by a bit..  I bet the oper. shows the pattern flux and then the EPS sort of needs more to swing momentum

May very well be the manifestation into guidance, but agree...I'd give it a day or two for ensembles to stabilize. The period of false alarms is drawing to a close, though.

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Ensembles look decent for 1/7-8. That rainstorm on 1/5 that turns into a monster in the maritimes ends up acting as a 50/50 low for that lakes system a couple days later and keeps it south of us. Hopefully it has the right idea. Would be a nice little overrunning event. 

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10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I try to appreciate that not everyone is getting the goods. It's been good here. 

Oh, sorry Nick..

I thought you were NS ...

NF though ... Yeah if taking the Euro verbatim that low collocates, huh - but man, just to the west, that is an insane CCB also apparently enhanced by pure pressure gradient ...

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles look decent for 1/7-8. That rainstorm on 1/5 that turns into a monster in the maritimes ends up acting as a 50/50 low for that lakes system a couple days later and keeps it south of us. Hopefully it has the right idea. Would be a nice little overrunning event. 

Big height changes up there from that. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big height changes up there from that. 

I know huh..

again, I'm curious what the umbrella appeal of the EPS is ... whether there is a broader systemic change afoot or if that is all just a transient mode while this bomb spins down.

I'm tentatively thinking it is ... because we have all the other arguments in play but ... heh.  Remember how we used to call anything with Euro genetics as "dr no" -

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pacific is marginally better.  Split flow is ok.

The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. 

I wonder why the -AO turns positive post-day 10. Im not sure that makes a ton of sense. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. 

Oh, I suggest so ...  I mean, I won't speak/claim to the magnitudes... but the gist of the circulation morphology fits.

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