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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. 

Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic.

You have been on your game. Nice call on the non event late week due to MJO, too.

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I understand that February natural gas contracts were obliterated today.  The bull community is now pricing natural gas as if there's no winter left, despite the long-range still showing a bias for colder than normal weather at the end of January into at least early February.  I guess we aren't the only ones having meltdowns.

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52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I understand that February natural gas contracts were obliterated today.  The bull community is now pricing natural gas as if there's no winter left, despite the long-range still showing a bias for colder than normal weather at the end of January into at least early February.  I guess we aren't the only ones having meltdowns.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January when the futures expire.

A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude.

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January and February.

A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude.

Look back at Jan 13, has that kind of semblance

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January and February.

A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude.

Don, please feel free to visit us on a regular basis!

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37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, especially in later January when the futures expire.

A persistence call based on conditions when the MJO spent an extended period in Phases 4 and 5 in December can be risky when it goes against El Niño climatology, especially when a lot is going i.e. a sudden stratospheric warming and the MJO will be poised to move into the colder phases at some point in January and likely at a higher amplitude.

Natural gas futures were skyrocketing in early to mid-November when we had that BN cold spell later in the month.  They reached almost $5/contract then, but have plummeted to $2.96/contract now, lol.

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6 hours ago, frd said:

The way the winters have been going since 2010 I don't think a flip, even as late as say Jan 20th to 25 th is really late. We will see though. 

We flipped that late in both 2015 and 2016 and still ended up with above average snowfall.  Jan 20th seems to be the new turning point for backloaded winters.  If it doesn't flip by early February then we might be having problems.

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7 hours ago, weathafella said:

Went to visit friends for dinner and movie-streamed the Big Lebowski-one of my all time favorites.   When we got to our car to go home I had some slush on the windshield.

 

Happy New Year friends!

May your new year feature many bowling balls, Jerry...but not on Shabbos.

tenor.gif

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