Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Is that wrong though ... using straight GEFs? The warming intrusion has verified... I don't speak for EPS but I know the GEFs ferreted that out a long while before it happened, stuck with it through verification. I guess we can now count on the EPS and forget giving credit where credit is due? My experience in the past with these spliting pv events is that they are not well handled and can lead/precipitated rather abrupt whole-scale pattern changes ... really quick analogous to crossing a threshold ... It may in fact be when the plume begins interacting with tropopause just as a guess... In any case, it's even possible the split is underdone. We don't know... I don't think - correct me if I'm wrong - that the EPS is masterful and handling this sort total evolution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I think Jerry dropping the Crown was bad juju for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: I think Jerry dropping the Crown was bad juju for the winter. It could be...lol. Plenty in stock and no one to drink it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Yeah John we’ve seen eps flounder before but the default leans to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It could be...lol. Plenty in stock and no one to drink it..... Oh, Say it ain't so................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Oh, Say it ain't so................ The alcohol part may be temporary but definitely toned down no matter what. I just feel the need to re-establish equilibrium.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is that wrong though ... using straight GEFs? The warming intrusion has verified... I don't speak for EPS but I know the GEFs ferreted that out a long while before it happened, stuck with it through verification. I guess we can now count on the EPS and forget giving credit where credit is due? My experience in the past with these spliting pv events is that they are not well handled and can lead/precipitated rather abrupt whole-scale pattern changes ... really quick analogous to crossing a threshold ... It may in fact be when the plume begins interacting with tropopause just as a guess... In any case, it's even possible the split is underdone. We don't know... I don't think - correct me if I'm wrong - that the EPS is masterful and handling this sort total evolution either. Both the EPS and GEFS had the strat warming event. The question now is downwelling into the troposphere, that isn't well agreed upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I will go with the guidance that is usually correct and has performed better than the GEFS. Also it’s been the pattern of models rushing change. Maybe it corrects, but yeesh. Hopefully it is just rushing the change, not delaying until May. At some point we’re going to need to see a good look move in closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol....yeah that was a hideous EPS run....but watch it flip awesome next run. It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic. Cooked tuna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 54 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Both the EPS and GEFS had the strat warming event. The question now is downwelling into the troposphere, that isn't well agreed upon. Yup...I get that impression vicariously.. heh. But even in the GEFs based products it's only partially illustrated - that may be all that is needed. I don't know but the PV signature has been vacillating between a three-nodal split and a two from what I've been observing fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Something interesting with the January 3-4th system now, it looks like another clipper type northern stream system brings some light snow to the region Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Something interesting with the January 3-4th system now, it looks like another clipper type northern stream system brings some light snow to the region Thursday. Maybe a few mood flakes will soften the gloomy mood in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Nothing says deep winter like weak southerly flow mood snow over the interior in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Maybe a few mood flakes will soften the gloomy mood in here. Yeah not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Happy New Years All! May all the crappy model runs be forgot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Happy New Years All! May all the crappy model runs be forgot... Amen!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Amen!!!! Thank you Father James. Please cleanse the troubled weenies before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Weeklies? As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after. Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows. I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late. If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after. Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows. I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late. If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in. 14-15 did well. Even Feb 2016 gave us a run. You’re better off to get a favorable flip in niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 14-15 did well. Even Feb 2016 gave us a run. You’re better off to get a favorable flip in niño. Wasn't 95-96 and 2014-2015 both good after the flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Wasn't 95-96 and 2014-2015 both good after the flip? 95-96 was just a transient flip to bad. My concern is that this could be the inverse and might be a transient good flip. 96-97 and 99-00 also both had transient good flips around mid January. Of course both of those were totally different ENSO states than this. There does seem to be a tendency though for winters where we are being destroyed by the east pacific Alaska low for there to be a relaxing of the GOA low in mid January and then in February you go right back into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Wasn't 95-96 and 2014-2015 both good after the flip? I’m not sure what flip he means in 95/96. We had that flip to hell for two weeks in late Jan. It then got favorable in feb and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Not to rub salt into our suffering wounds here, but right now in Fargo, ND it's -11°F with a -42° WC, and a snowpack of over a foot. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 This 6 week stretch has been like living in that bad stretch of Jan 96. Just rainer after rainer. That’s the only comparison but it’s an awful one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This 6 week stretch has been like living in that bad stretch of Jan 96. Just rainer after rainer. That’s the only comparison but it’s an awful one. Watch this clipper energy passing by day 3-4, the clipper transfers energy into a coastal, the 21z SREFs are closer to the coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Half the EPS members and half the 12z GEFS members have decent snowfall into the SNE region on Thursday, something to definitely watch closely in the next 48+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This 6 week stretch has been like living in that bad stretch of Jan 96. Just rainer after rainer. That’s the only comparison but it’s an awful one. This will be my least December snow since moving to Greenfield in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after. Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows. I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late. If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in. The way the winters have been going since 2010 I don't think a flip, even as late as say Jan 20th to 25 th is really late. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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