dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast. I could see that working out for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Would have like to seen the panel between hr 120 and 144 on the 12z Ukie, But it looked like the low moved up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I keep forgetting its on there, I was on the Uquam site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I keep forgetting its on there, I was on the Uquam site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I could see that working out for northern areas. Based off of the Maps Steve posted, That's no a bad track up here if there is enough cold left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Cant see 8 h but 5H looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Cant see 8 h but 5H looks good I was just checking out the 6H precip, That would actually be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 That solutions is really close to the 12z GFS. It's basically all southern stream. I'd guess temps are really marginal in SNE given such a similar H5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Funny that a favorable track for early January and the 0c 850 line is up in Canada This current active pattern has given us more rainstorms than any other year I could recall, bar none now obviously if things stay active late January looks better , purely as a function of our coldest climo and hopefully with accuracy from LR pimping the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: That solutions is really close to the 12z GFS. It's basically all southern stream. I'd guess temps are really marginal in SNE given such a similar H5 look. That would even be marginal here as the s/w in the northern stream is long gone by then if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: That would even be marginal here as the s/w in the northern stream is long gone by then if that's the case. The 850’s didn’t look that close on gfs. Maybe I missed something. Looked like a perfect track and zero cold air to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Reminds me of that system earlier this month. All southern stream with no cold air to tap into. Most of the area is now looking forward to Jan 9/10 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The 850’s didn’t look that close on gfs. Maybe I missed something. Looked like a perfect track and zero cold air to tap. Fuk the GFS, It still hasn't bit on tonight's event never mind 8-10 days from now, Its a warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: in reference to the MJO stuff. Eric Webb says the GFS can outdual the ECMWF re: MJO when there is a high amplitude wave that originates in the maritime continent. It doesnt make sense that such a high ampltiude wave would suddenly die like the ECWMF shows, anyway. Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point. I figured that was driving the awful look that the EPS has in the 11-15 day. GEFS looks a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Fuk the GFS, It still hasn't bit on tonight's event never mind 8-10 days from now, Its a warm outlier. Euro was colder, but still extremely marginal. Not much hope for that storm...there is just no cold air left by the time that cutoff southern stream arrives. That's one reason we wanted the initial phase with the northern stream that whiffs at about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 If that Ukie depiction is right.. that’s a comma head 32 degree isothermal pasting inland areas of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro was colder, but still extremely marginal. Not much hope for that storm...there is just no cold air left by the time that cutoff southern stream arrives. That's one reason we wanted the initial phase with the northern stream that whiffs at about 48 hours. I agree, That's why i made the comment on the Ukie about the temps, The Euro was marginal, But the GFS has not been good with any of the last couple events up here as far as frozen goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If that Ukie depiction is right.. that’s a comma head 32 degree isothermal pasting inland areas of SNE We gotta wait to the next that mjo betta make it outta phase 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: We gotta wait to the next that mjo betta make it outta phase 6 Or else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point. The EC VP200 plots have handled it well....probably better than the gfs. Those wheeler diagrams can get noisy so they aren’t always accurate, but better than nothing. They do weaken it and send it to SAMR and points east as a stronger wave. But I still take it as a weakening pac jet and more favorable state. The problem is that all guidance has been too fast in doing this. I agree that a compromise could come to fruition between the GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Or else I poop myself ? I should hope not. Would likely mean The late January ideas would be pushed back or less excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I should hope not. Would likely mean The late January ideas would be pushed back or less excellent I think there are many on here that already think that way honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I should hope not. Would likely mean The late January ideas would be pushed back or less excellent It will come out of 6 very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: I think there are many on here that already think that way honestly. Weenies or vets/Mets like scootie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The EC VP200 plots have handled it well....probably better than the gfs. Those wheeler diagrams can get noisy so they aren’t always accurate, but better than nothing. They do weaken it and send it to SAMR and points east as a stronger wave. But I still take it as a weakening pac jet and more favorable state. The problem is that all guidance has been too fast in doing this. I agree that a compromise could come to fruition between the GEFS and EPS. Right, I agree, chi 200 definitely detects the ewd propagation better. We will probably see a compromise but weighted more toward the GEFS propagation, in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Weenies or vets/Mets like scootie Weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Right, I agree, chi 200 definitely detects the ewd propagation better. We will probably see a compromise but weighted more toward the GEFS propagation, in my view. 12z GEFS does agree as well although backed down heights off west coast in 8-10 day. I was told the GEFS chi plots also sort of move things along but aren’t always realistic? Not sure which ones you look at, just going by what I was told for novel GEFS chi plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 44 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: John, by this standard you can barely ever say you're in an El Nino. We have to wait for 5 consecutive trimonthlies of 0.5 or higher anomalies in 3.4 for it to be declared. It's dictated by past anomalies which in some respect is kinda silly. By most objective measures the SST and the atmospheric have been in El Nino type state for awhile now. "standard"? nah...no predilection exists over here in my mind. I was just using/reporting what they're indicating but if we need to disagree with them...sure. If I had my own buoy network tied into WAN sampling NOI and SOI and thermalcline depth/Kelvin wave distribution ...I'd be better prepared to formulate a discussion. I definitely agree with your sentiment in bold though... I covet my own hypothesis which... admittedly, one's supposition doesn't necessitate a collective adherence - haha... But, I'm not entirely certain these ENSO states are being normalized for climate change along the way. If they are...that's great! If not ...that's comparing against a system of observations gathered middle last century; I might have a problem with the Law of constancy in physics in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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