January 2019 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... and pointing out the obvious ...that's a three month mean compared to a single month. 

Plus...we'd have to vet their data sourcing... Are they going to tell us that they "might" or "could" be using just two January points versus 1300 for all three months? No - ...least, I don't see that in any disclaimers and so forth. I have read at CDC, however, that their cross-correlations table is subject to oddities in the numbers ...and also, that the correlations may breakdown "...when in quadrature..."

... Which is amazing, that they would use the word quadrature in publication to any resource that is available to this particular state of society we bump shoulders in...   

j/k, ... but what that means is similar to what I was just describing to East' there about the west vs east based NAO...etc...etc..  But pertinent to discussion here, if CDC admits to less than ideal linear relationships in the numbers/numerologies .. heh.  

But... like I was also just describing to East' ... I think the MJO's exact influence has a reasonable enough pattern-related relevance to expand definitions anyway

 

Yeah it can be annoying to filter through the noise at times....but I should post a composite of events that Phil and I made about a decade ago that pertained to MJO phase. Our composite (which I think was over 30 years long) showed that phase 6 definitely isn't good for snow events relative to other phases.

 

 

[frd]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it can be annoying to filter through the noise at times....but I should post a composite of events that Phil and I made about a decade ago that pertained to MJO phase. Our composite (which I think was over 30 years long) showed that phase 6 definitely isn't good for snow events relative to other phases.

 

 

@ORH_wxman Is your research based on New England's historical results, a certain weather station,  or some other area ? 

Thanks for posting this, your research is very useful to look at. 

Seems all we need to do is exit phase 6 and things vastly improve for snow potential. 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it can be annoying to filter through the noise at times....but I should post a composite of events that Phil and I made about a decade ago that pertained to MJO phase. Our composite (which I think was over 30 years long) showed that phase 6 definitely isn't good for snow events relative to other phases.

 

 

I'm surprised Phase 1 is down that low... interesting.  7--> 8 ... 2 fits... That 1 may be noisy butt bangin - hahahaha

Know what we should do/suggest to the site overseers ... if there is such an apparatus -

We should create a link that posts some rudimentary reviewed data of this ilk...  Call it, it "primer"  (soft 'i') ...such that newbies and greeners and less than ideally prepped enthusiasts can at least be exposed to these things ... Instead of just sitting around and waiting for the drama of the dystropian model series to somehow put substance into their otherwise barren, vapid, tortured empty lives. 

haha, ... seriously though... 'Sorry, I'm being a douche this morning... anyway, It could be evolving, too... updated from time to time with cutting edge.  Even nest some links in the JS/HTML that go to AMS publications...  AMS glossary...  Public-accessible repositories that have paraphrased articles from peer reviewal

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, frd said:

@ORH_wxman Is your research based on New England's historical results, a certain weather station,  or some other area ? 

Thanks for posting this, your research is very useful to look at. 

Seems all we need to do is exit phase 6 and things vastly improve for snow potential. 

 

 

 

From my memory it was based on having at least 3 out of the 4 first order stations in SNE seeing 5" or more in an event. But it's possible I could have just limited it to BOS/ORH....but I'm pretty sure I checked all 4 and used 3 stations as the minimum to produce an "event"....and yes, this is historical. I'm pretty sure it went back to 1974. It's a good sample...130 events....I think the last winter in the dataset was 2008-2009.

 

Phase 4/5/6 kind of suck, but keep in mind that if each phase had zero influence, we'd expect about 12% for each phase...so 8-9% is below average but not ridiculously so. Obviously phase 8 is the one you want.

[dryslot]

The question i have is, Are we projected to make it into phase 8? Or do we get to phase 7 then the COD?

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm really curious why there is such a huge disparity between the present MJO prognosis coming from the American cluster when looking at the ECMWF...

Could that have anything to do with the gov shut-down?  Like...I don't know what the organisational relationship is between the ECMWF and NCEP ...I'm pretty sure they get much of their western Hemisphere data from the Americans...  If that is directed/channeled through CDC ... are they experiencing an outage of their inputs ??

I dunno - not a statement here.  Just an inquiry. Chris?  

Something has to be driving the differential, but the difference in the strength and overall mechanical presentation is passing over a 'pattern correlative' thresholds so it's useful to ask in general.  These sources do tend to vary some...but this difference here is suspicious looking, 

 

[#NoPoles]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it can be annoying to filter through the noise at times....but I should post a composite of events that Phil and I made about a decade ago that pertained to MJO phase. Our composite (which I think was over 30 years long) showed that phase 6 definitely isn't good for snow events relative to other phases.

 

 

You should update this! This is awesome!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The question i have is, Are we projected to make it into phase 8? Or do we get to phase 7 then the COD?

I'm starting to wonder what we can trust in general ... pending some sort of clarity on how the gov shut-down may (or may) be effecting (ultimately) these products... 

I don't think anyone's even considered that - it may be nothing... okay.  But, I noticed the CDC's entire operation is lights off mice scurrying under desks down for business ...  I'm wondering how far Trump's demonic intent to cripple civility if he doesn't get to make him and his Russian business rich, extends... 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm starting to wonder what we can trust in general ... pending some sort of clarity on how the gov shut-down may (or may) be effecting (ultimately) these products... 

I don't think anyone's even considered that - it may be nothing... okay.  But, I noticed the CDC's entire operation is lights off mice scurrying under desks down for business ...  I'm wondering how far Trump's demonic intent to cripple civility if he doesn't get to make him and his Russian business rich, extends... 

 

Good point on the affects of the NCEP guidance, I don't know who would have that answer if there just running certain segments and if this is one there not.

[512high]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm starting to wonder what we can trust in general ... pending some sort of clarity on how the gov shut-down may (or may) be effecting (ultimately) these products... 

I don't think anyone's even considered that - it may be nothing... okay.  But, I noticed the CDC's entire operation is lights off mice scurrying under desks down for business ...  I'm wondering how far Trump's demonic intent to cripple civility if he doesn't get to make him and his Russian business rich, extends... 

 

Tip, what about the mets that work for the weather service, do they have access or are they locked out as well, regarding what we can only see ,due to the shutdown?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good point on the affects of the NCEP guidance, I don't know who would have that answer if there just running certain segments and if this is one there not.

We have to remember ...the Euro org is a private firm... What's in their contract?  Does it have a clause for "not held responsible to systemic failure do to processes of a foreign sovereignty charged with overseeing data source" ?   or what?  They have an arrangement and dimes to donuts, its in sophisticated document for legalese purposes - none of these wrenches, and hammers and vice grips in the tool-box that we've strangely morphed into sexual gratification tools (heh) just engender in a vacuum. 

I'll say one thing... if it turns out that the initialization and supply to these outside agencies is a non-issue...?  that means that these progs from the GFS vs the ECM could signal just about anything and are those not useful to determinism.  

Great...every dimension of reality in which we look at this thing, turns the turd turdier

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm really curious why there is such a huge disparity between the present MJO prognosis coming from the American cluster when looking at the ECMWF...

Could that have anything to do with the gov shut-down?  Like...I don't know what the organisational relationship is between the ECMWF and NCEP ...I'm pretty sure they get much of their western Hemisphere data from the Americans...  If that is directed/channeled through CDC ... are they experiencing an outage of their inputs ??

I dunno - not a statement here.  Just an inquiry. Chris?  

Something has to be driving the differential, but the difference in the strength and overall mechanical presentation is passing over a 'pattern correlative' thresholds so it's useful to ask in general.  These sources do tend to vary some...but this difference here is suspicious looking, 

 

Not related to shut down.  It’s been this disconcordant for weeks.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, what about the mets that work for the weather service, do they have access or are they locked out as well, regarding what we can only see ,due to the shutdown?

I think Chris is the one to ask...  Again, I'm speculating 

Please don't read in and/or take what I'm asking as statements of fact - 

This is a 'partial government shutdown'  ...one in which all evidences availing... IS closing CDC for business.   I'm just thinking/wondering outside the box if that may have bearing -

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not related to shut down.  It’s been this disconcordant for weeks.

what?  "weeks" ... 

There's a fundamental logical flaw in your statement:  time

That curve has not looked that way 'for weeks' because 'weeks' ago ...the curve existed when there was no shut-down. 

As an aside ... I have read that when there is data sparse-related grid failures the flop the ingest over to the most recent progs for those grid points... So that does offer a little bit of 'crawl along' decay.

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what?  "weeks" ... 

There's a fundamental logical flaw in your statement:  time

That curve has not looked that way 'for weeks' because 'weeks' ago ...the curve existed when there was no shut-down. 

 

Disconcordant between euro and gfs in a similar way.  Gfs started a high amplitude wave maybe even after the shut down so I suspect these processes are automated.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Disconcordant between euro and gfs.

Right, so they get their data circuitry the exact same way ... got it. 

If that's the case... fine.  Like I said, worth asking.  

[weathafella]

That long range (d8-10) system on gfs is perfect banana high and all.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

That long range (d8-10) system on gfs is perfect banana high and all.

That's a nice SWFE look to that system at that time frame on the GFS.

[weathafella]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's a nice SWFE look to that system at that time frame on the GFS.

Looks miller b to me.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Looks miller b to me.

Well timed Scooter streak to force that underneath us.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, weathafella said:

Looks miller b to me.

sometimes those 2 work together and create a SWFE on roids, yes?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looks miller b to me.

Could end up being one but won't argue semantics this far out, Looked like a wave that just traverses the upper ohio valley and moves off the coast.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

sometimes those 2 work together and create a SWFE on roids, yes?

Yes...they kind of mesh together at a certain point when you get a system that penetrates pretty far north (say CLE or so) and then redevelops....we kind of saw that in the 2/2/15 event. It was like a SWFE but then the midlevel cetners rapidly developed and turned it basically into a miller B which gave us that extra round of snow in the afternoon and turned a 8-10" storm into a 15-20" storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s a strong HP ahead of the Jan3-4 storm. It already looks like a farther south track than the one tonight is. You wonder if we don’t at least get in on some front end fun on that one in SNE on that one .

[Ginx snewx]

Allans MJO charts with month/phase/amplitude were always a great resource.  Wasnt Jan Feb 15 MJO in the COD

[MJO812]

What a storm on the Gfs 

Nice Miller b

It's anyone's guess right now the track but I'm loving the confluence to the north. Mjo will be favorable by the time this storm happens ( if it does )

Cmc shredded this storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Based on recent model performance ... which frankly is under ancillary scrutiny ... that system is justifiably a pure physical-fractal processing enhanced delusion.  

We only need 4.5 days then anything even so much as a sentence is warranted in my mind.  Blind darts

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Allans MJO charts with month/phase/amplitude were always a great resource.  Wasnt Jan Feb 15 MJO in the COD

Yes...I posted this a few days ago, but Feb '15 was mostly in the COD though reemerging in phase 7/8 at times...though late January took an eerily similar track that the Euro shows right now:

 

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ... phase 6

I guess you could get warm profiled events.. But, more commonly.. we find that where there is clouds and precipitation, cooler anomalies take place - just a matter of degree ( n'yuk n'yuk) 

The composites found here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/  ... use "DJF"

...as we can see, clearly show phase 6 as perhaps the warmer of all ... That fact alone can be used to back us into an assumption. Namely, that phase 6 should be consistent with lower storm frequency - in other words, not pretty good.  

I suppose though that El Nino's are relatively rare compared to the longer termed rest state of the data ... otherwise, we'd always be in El Nino - duh.  So, yes it is possible that being in an El Nino may alter the results of that inference. Or asking in a 'nother e-zombie watered down way: ... bad for storms unless its phase 6 in El Nino? 

Therein ... we don't even know what this El Nino really is at this point... All we have is this Modoki-ness and a prediction... technically, we are not "in" an El Nino if logic were any use. Here is CPC's (fwiw) most recent update published back on December 10 ...

"  ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).  "

I'm not a poet laureate but that doesn't "sound" impressively in El Nino at this time.  So, I don't think we can really assess phase 6 above in either context.

 

John, by this standard you can barely ever say you're in an El Nino. We have to wait for 5 consecutive trimonthlies of 0.5 or higher anomalies in 3.4 for it to be declared. It's dictated by past anomalies which in some respect is kinda silly. By most objective measures the SST and the atmospheric have been in El Nino type state for awhile now. 

[OSUmetstud]

 

in reference to the MJO stuff. Eric Webb says the GFS can outdual the ECMWF re: MJO when there is a high amplitude wave that originates in the maritime continent. It doesnt make sense that such a high ampltiude wave would suddenly die like the ECWMF shows, anyway.