78Blizzard Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now. 18Z GFS just made a big change to that d15 500h anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Steve, I don't know. Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts. Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark. Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip? Elevation may help me. I don't know? GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range. I'm at the yellow dot I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the GFS was not weighed very much in the GYX forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the GFS was not weighed very much in the GYX forecast. I feel like those snow maps are over-done for tomorrow. The EURO looks decent to me for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Can we make sure the Fri sys is colder than what's currently progged. Can't take another rainerSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: I feel like those snow maps are over-done for tomorrow. The EURO looks decent to me for NNE. Yup, The GYX snow map agrees pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I actually thought it was how it handled convection in the tropics. During strong MJO pulses it almost looked like diurnal cycles had an effect. I can’t prove it, but it sort of made sense in my mind. I’m probably wrong, but who knows. Yeah...that's exactly where I was heading on my previous - meant latent heat release... convection in the diurnal medium may be throwing off MJO forcing/distribution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Steve, I don't know. Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts. Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark. Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip? Elevation may help me. I don't know? GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range. I'm at the yellow dot Check pivotal weather clown looks nothing like that but I am sure you will get an initial thump just not seeing 6 plus although its certainly within the realm of outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1/4 system looks good on the 18z GEFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 34 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18Z GFS just made a big change to that d15 500h anomaly. Op runs versus Ens, post the GEFs when it finishes, if its like that That would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: 1/4 system looks good on the 18z GEFS ensembles Perfect spot!! I'm feeling this one.. then we relax for 7 to 10 days then the real fun starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, I agree with those saying it's nothing special but I didn't find it particularly hostile like we saw in the past two weeks outside of 12/23-12/25. Close to climo temps with some signs of split flow isn't the worst thing in early/mid January. So we would be looking for small to moderate events with this pattern , right the stream flow is not really conductive for phasing at all, and there is fast zonal flow from pacific well into central Atlantic still, right or is this slowing shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Perfect spot!! I'm feeling this one.. then we relax for 7 to 10 days then the real fun starts Not sure about a 10 day relaxation but I do see things start to get active around the 15th. Things look to set up around there but chance of small things earlier can happen from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Op runs versus Ens, post the GEFs when it finishes, if its like that That would be nice But the 2 previous GFS op runs looked just like that EPS run at d15. GEFS looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: .. then we relax for 7 to 10 days then the real fun starts The board will be even more entertaining if the fun doesn’t start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Seems like New Years Eve system could be Quite wintery for East Central Nh into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like New Years Eve system could be Quite wintery for East Central Nh into Maine I'm kind of digging the forecast soundings. Really has a near isothermal look for several hours tomorrow evening. Could pound before any flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Also probably much windier than we have the forecast for southern NH? I'm surprised we only have 20 knots or so on the gusts. Soundings showing potential for twice that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Also probably much windier than we have the forecast for southern NH? I'm surprised we only have 20 knots or so on the gusts. Soundings showing potential for twice that. Thumpity thump Thumper the dumper look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So we would be looking for small to moderate events with this pattern , right the stream flow is not really conductive for phasing at all, and there is fast zonal flow from pacific well into central Atlantic still, right or is this slowing shortly Yeah....I mean typically you would look for a much deeper PNA ridge/trough couplet or a big NAO block for a larger ticket event potential. Both of those slow systems down. But you could definitely still get major winter storm warning criteria in a pattern like shown...like a 9-12" type event or even slightly bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....I mean typically you would look for a much deeper PNA ridge/trough couplet or a big NAO block for a larger ticket event potential. Both of those slow systems down. But you could definitely still get major winter storm warning criteria in a pattern like shown...like a 9-12" type event or even slightly bigger. We are so spoiled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Perfect spot!! I'm feeling this one.. then we relax for 7 to 10 days then the real fun starts Feel this double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: We are so spoiled.... Those types of storms would have shut the state down for days in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I think many on this board right now would drool at the prospects of an 8"-12" snowstorm. Without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Greg said: I think many on this board right now would drool at the prospects of a 2-4” snowstorm. Without question. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: FYP I think that's the most amazing part. Regardless of the pattern when I hear people like Bob at TAN talking about 45 days without an accumulating snow event at the end of December... I mean how there hasn't even been a region wide 2-4" or 3-6" storm sneak in at some point is really telling this month. Even with the amount of rainers, that not one of them had a solid cold wedge to even give the majority of the forum 2-5" before going to mix and rain....even the event tomorrow. Bad luck on some level that these can't even punch out a quick couple inches for most before the rain... but I guess that's the difference between the memorable winters and the forgettable ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think that's the most amazing part. Regardless of the pattern when I hear people like Bob at TAN talking about 45 days without an accumulating snow event at the end of December... I mean how there hasn't even been a region wide 2-4" or 3-6" storm sneak in at some point is really telling this month. Even with the amount of rainers, that not one of them had a solid cold wedge to even give the majority of the forum 2-5" before going to mix and rain....even the event tomorrow. Bad luck on some level that these can't even punch out a quick couple inches for most before the rain... but I guess that's the difference between the memorable winters and the forgettable ones. You've just explained why there's a lot of meltdowns in here. The lack of snow...even a few inches on a front ender or a crap clipper or inverted trough. Anything. That's how you get a goose egg or near goose egg in December at places that average double digits. And this wasn't a complete trash pattern all month either. We just literally couldn't get one event to go the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Nobody watching the NAM from ORH county I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nobody watching the NAM from ORH county I see Hard to believe since it's colder than most guidance but you are right that is like isothermal paste for about 3-4 hours with good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Hard to believe since it's colder than most guidance but you are right that is like isothermal paste for about 3-4 hours with good rates. I noticed it on the 36-hour HRRR, ha. There's a chance for a quick pounding if the lift is solid for areas of RT 2 north. Not a given by any means but enough to warrant keeping an eye on it. If the rates are there, even 1-2 hours of isothermal snow can paste the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hard to believe since it's colder than most guidance but you are right that is like isothermal paste for about 3-4 hours with good rates. Surprised me when I checked soundings. Interesting to see how 7H and 8H plummeted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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