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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better  EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now.

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18Z GFS just made a big change to that d15 500h anomaly.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_50.png

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14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Steve,  I don't know.  Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts.  Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark.  Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip?  Elevation may help me.  I don't know?  GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range.  I'm at the yellow dot

ddd.jpg

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the GFS was not weighed very much in the GYX forecast.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I actually thought it was how it handled convection in the tropics. During strong MJO pulses it almost looked like diurnal cycles had an effect. I can’t prove it, but it sort of made sense in my mind. I’m probably wrong, but who knows.

Yeah...that's exactly where I was heading on my previous - meant latent heat release... convection in the diurnal medium may be throwing off MJO forcing/distribution...

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35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Steve,  I don't know.  Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts.  Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark.  Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip?  Elevation may help me.  I don't know?  GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range.  I'm at the yellow dot

ddd.jpg

Check pivotal weather clown looks nothing like that but I am sure you will get an initial thump just not seeing 6 plus although its certainly within the realm of outcomes 

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, I agree with those saying it's nothing special but I didn't find it particularly hostile like we saw in the past two weeks outside of 12/23-12/25. 

Close to climo temps with some signs of split flow isn't the worst thing in early/mid January. 

So we would be looking for small to moderate events with this pattern , right 

the stream flow is not really conductive for phasing at all, and there is fast zonal flow from pacific well into central Atlantic still, right or is this slowing shortly 

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11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Perfect spot!! I'm feeling this one.. then we relax for 7 to 10 days then the real fun starts

Not sure about a 10 day relaxation but I do see things start to get active around the 15th.  Things look to set up around there but chance of small things earlier can happen from here.

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37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So we would be looking for small to moderate events with this pattern , right 

the stream flow is not really conductive for phasing at all, and there is fast zonal flow from pacific well into central Atlantic still, right or is this slowing shortly 

Yeah....I mean typically you would look for a much deeper PNA ridge/trough couplet or a big NAO block for a larger ticket event potential. Both of those slow systems down. 

But you could definitely still get major winter storm warning criteria in a pattern like shown...like a 9-12" type event or even slightly bigger. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....I mean typically you would look for a much deeper PNA ridge/trough couplet or a big NAO block for a larger ticket event potential. Both of those slow systems down. 

But you could definitely still get major winter storm warning criteria in a pattern like shown...like a 9-12" type event or even slightly bigger.

We are so spoiled....

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FYP 

I think that's the most amazing part.  Regardless of the pattern when I hear people like Bob at TAN talking about 45 days without an accumulating snow event at the end of December... I mean how there hasn't even been a region wide 2-4" or 3-6" storm sneak in at some point is really telling this month.  Even with the amount of rainers, that not one of them had a solid cold wedge to even give the majority of the forum 2-5" before going to mix and rain....even the event tomorrow.  Bad luck on some level that these can't even punch out a quick couple inches for most before the rain... but I guess that's the difference between the memorable winters and the forgettable ones.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think that's the most amazing part.  Regardless of the pattern when I hear people like Bob at TAN talking about 45 days without an accumulating snow event at the end of December... I mean how there hasn't even been a region wide 2-4" or 3-6" storm sneak in at some point is really telling this month.  Even with the amount of rainers, that not one of them had a solid cold wedge to even give the majority of the forum 2-5" before going to mix and rain....even the event tomorrow.  Bad luck on some level that these can't even punch out a quick couple inches for most before the rain... but I guess that's the difference between the memorable winters and the forgettable ones.

You've just explained why there's a lot of meltdowns in here. The lack of snow...even a few inches on a front ender or a crap clipper or inverted trough. Anything. That's how you get a goose egg or near goose egg in December at places that average double digits. 

And this wasn't a complete trash pattern all month either. We just literally couldn't get one event to go the right way. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to believe since it's colder than most guidance but you are right that is like isothermal paste for about 3-4 hours with good rates. 

I noticed it on the 36-hour HRRR, ha.  There's a chance for a quick pounding if the lift is solid for areas of RT 2 north.  Not a given by any means but enough to warrant keeping an eye on it. 

If the rates are there, even 1-2 hours of isothermal snow can paste the landscape.

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