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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I actually thought it was how it handled convection in the tropics. During strong MJO pulses it almost looked like diurnal cycles had an effect. I can’t prove it, but it sort of made sense in my mind. I’m probably wrong, but who knows.

It would take something like that though. It's not something as detailed as a shortwave, because we'd see a more scattershot result run to run.  But a diurnal cycle of some sort could result in a 12/00z flip flop.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At the day 5 "wheelhouse" for tracking purposes, it's real, and it's spectacular.

I mean it's actually the coldest major model bias. Drunk uncle runs a little hot though.

bias_day5_T_P850_G2NHX_zpsqdnxkt19.png

Can you tell me please what the FNO and CFSR models are? I don't recognize them.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t see that.   Are they epic?  Not yet. It certainly far from fugly.

I would have expected a better look based on your posts. High and dry then wet and warm doesn't seem much like you describe but ok we probably sneak a WAA snow or 2, nothing special as far as Jan winter weather it seems. I am not looking for a perfect pattern but rather something sustainable.  Dikes will freeze in Denmark though.

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would have expected a better look based on your posts. High and dry then wet and warm doesn't seem much like you describe but ok we probably sneak a WAA snow or 2, nothing special as far as Jan winter weather it seems. I am not looking for a perfect pattern but rather something sustainable.  Dikes will freeze in Denmark though.

I look at a few things.

 

1.  Heights around AK and th Beaufort Sea

2.  Heights in the nao region

3.   Temperatures (850) in our part of the hemisphere.

 

as a weenie, I look at snow maps.   SV maps which tend to be the most conservative have 12+ for most of us during the run.   Heights are above normal but there seems to be enough of a PNA and EPO working with nao to keep us in reasonable shape.  It’s a huge improvement vs 0z which had low heights on the Pacific side in a place we don’t want them.

 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've noticed is has a problem with east coast cyclogenesis...just a lot of extreme solutions. So while it may handle the longwave pattern well, it seems "off" when it comes to our own little world of winter wx. 

Doesnt mean it is useless though. It has scored some coups. More than a model like the GGEM. 

It's a good reminder to keep basic principles in mind, like a top-down forecast. SLP and QPF can suck everyone in sometimes, but 850-300 are really going to drive things more often than not (yes low level PV generation matters too).

I remember that forecasters in IA loved the Ukie for MCS forecasting, because it remained relatively uncontaminated by convection. You could look at the basic ingredients necessary for convection, without the model running away with it. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, please stop with that crap.. place is already unreadable, you don't need to fuel it.

giphy.gif

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting some bad breaks is probably the main reason for the melts. Honestly, look at a year like 2004-2005...we had pretty much a really meh to occasionally dogsh** pattern for December and early January but yet we scored events during brief windows of favorability and even during the sh** pattern in early January 2005 we scored two events. It's always about the snow for most of the winter wx lovers and not about patterns or temps. 

No individual threat in the past month you would expect to work out but collectively you would expect a couple to hit. This was not a December 2006/2011/2015 pattern by any stretch.

 

Exactly.  We have multiple page digressions on stories/photos/references to  '78, PD2, or James' favorite Juno.  Multiple pages of H5 of yore?  Not so much.

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9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez,  What a thumping I am going to get tomorrow evening.  5-9" of paste?  Looks like it will come in like a wall around 8pm.  I wish I could share it with all of you, only a few of us on the boards are going to get in on this.  Good melt on Tuesday.

? Think that is NE of you?

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42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I look at a few things.

 

1.  Heights around AK and th Beaufort Sea

2.  Heights in the nao region

3.   Temperatures (850) in our part of the hemisphere.

 

as a weenie, I look at snow maps.   SV maps which tend to be the most conservative have 12+ for most of us during the run.   Heights are above normal but there seems to be enough of a PNA and EPO working with nao to keep us in reasonable shape.  It’s a huge improvement vs 0z which had low heights on the Pacific side in a place we don’t want them.

 

Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better  EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now.

download (4).png

download (5).png

download (6).png

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well a couple of things. SV is way liberal this time, 850 temps 11 to 15 and the 5H look while NAO looks better  EPO is further east PNA is flat looked zonal to me, pretty sure it will change. EPS has had end of run weenie snow for weeks now.

download (4).png

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Not too bad of a pattern. Better than we've had. Bit of a split flow look out west and some minor PNA ridging with good low height anomalies near aleutians. Would prefer that to be a bit further SW but it's serviceable. Split flow will sometimes cause the higher heights in Canada around Hudson Bay. 

 

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There's always this 90s hit from Prodigy

Sh**tty patter.

Go check the models I'll test yah

EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM

Sh**tty patter.

Go check the models I'll test yah

EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM

Go.    check.  the.   models

If you believe past 8 days, if u believe past 8 days your the victim

Go check the models 

EURO GFS UKEMT and GEM

 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Think that is NE of you?

Steve,  I don't know.  Looking at those clown maps makes me a bit nuts.  Looks like qpf comes in like a wall after dark.  Could the temp come down to around 32F for a few hours with 1" plus precip?  Elevation may help me.  I don't know?  GFS and NAM clown maps have me in the 6-9" range.  I'm at the yellow dot

ddd.jpg

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not too bad of a pattern. Better than we've had. Bit of a split flow look out west and some minor PNA ridging with good low height anomalies near aleutians. Would prefer that to be a bit further SW but it's serviceable. Split flow will sometimes cause the higher heights in Canada around Hudson Bay. 

 

Thank you!  I knew I wasn’t nuts (well about this at least).

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thank you!  I knew I wasn’t nuts (well about this at least).

I mean, I agree with those saying it's nothing special but I didn't find it particularly hostile like we saw in the past two weeks outside of 12/23-12/25. 

Close to climo temps with some signs of split flow isn't the worst thing in early/mid January. 

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