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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Not according to this 

 

Michael Ventrice says

Everytime I look at the Day 15 ECMWF EPS, it just keeps getting worse and worse for Winter lovers in the US. We are entering a period where the cold outlooks for Jaanuary keep getting pushed back in time. A forecaster's nightmare 

 

DvqvxHgW0AI665z.jpg

Pushed back to mid January..congrats me.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

How can you not have fun with his awful pattern. I’d rather have fun with it instead of Snow88 telling me it looks good for SNE.

Fun, yes...but people are already freaking out and seeing someone like you post that is going to lead to 3 pages of train wreck whining.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road.

Welcome to 2013 and 2015....the whining will get even louder if we don't grab a good storm within the first 5-7 days of a good pattern. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fun, yes...but people are already freaking out and seeing someone like you post that is going to lead to 3 pages of train wreck whining.

I think they know when I’m serious. For what it’s worth I’m still in agreement with you. I do admit this is concerning for a good stretch, but the firehose will break down at some point. I’m surprised how bad modeling has been. Any good changes immediately break down. I guess like always things are rushed.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road.

There is something to be said about the consistency of the pattern without any semblance of change on the near horizon.  Easier to go with what you’ve seen then what you don’t know will come.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road.

I believe it’s a few factors 

most people aren’t ok with waiting months for winter than punting first 45 days of met winter no matter what 

some just have very limited faith in MR/LR and have a I’ll believe it when I see it approach 

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how failure to catch a break in a bad pattern speaks to anythinng down the road.

I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

There is something to be said about the consistency of the pattern without any semblance of change on the near horizon.  Easier to go with what you’ve seen then what you don’t know will come.

Nothing to be said about the future.

Zero. Changes absolutely zero.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. 

The belly to belly idea was always wrong. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it’s that. Well perhaps it is, but it’s the lower frequency signal of a strong Pacific jet that hasn’t gone away. Things are fairly stable. I still think it will change for the better....it’s clearly not a belly to belly winter like some hoped. 

When i had looked back earlier in the fall at winters that were similar to this Modocki Nino, It was pretty much a split to some decent and some duds, Not saying this ends up a dud, But i believe the better ones had produced better results in Dec.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The main problem is the heart of winter which is Dec and Jan is likely lost. You lose basically 2 out of 3 winter months. And then it’s Feb. And then Morch brings spring. By no means are we cancelling winter, but a 3-4 week period of snows isn’t what anyone ever envisioned. 

Jan isn't lost

Look at Jan 2015

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

When i had looked back earlier in the fall at winters that were similar to this Modocki Nino, It was pretty much a split tome decent and some duds, Not saying this ends up a dud, But i believe the better ones had produced better results in Dec.

I honestly think we had bad luck. The pattern through 12-15 was good and even when it was not good...it was ok in NNE. I think the true bad Decembers had a start to finish terrible look. You don’t get record snows in the south and parts of MA in a bad pattern. We just got skunked. 

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