ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? This is quite complex Upper air reminds me of Jan 3-4, 1994. The profiles look colder though so far than that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just look at the wind fetch in SNE through most of the storm. Doesn’t turn northerly until the end. It’s a prolonged, twice as long, waa omega thump then what we typical see. All while being -10 to -15C at 925. Yeah that signal can’t be ignored...that’s pretty substantial. Really tough to swing one way or another b/c the boundary could easily shift and the low track NW and we just as easy see +10C at 925 lol. I would also think there could be a good amount of convection across the SE and off the coast...hopefully that wouldn’t result in moisture thevery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Upper air reminds me of Jan 3-4, 1994. The profiles look colder though so far than that storm. Oh wow...that’s not a bad match at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The jackpot will be further south than what the models have right now (not sure by how much yet). No bias, just see the PV going to push this further down. Friday's system will also be a catalyst that will cause the arctic boundary to move south as colder, drier air infiltrates from Canada. I suppose if you get some separation with the Friday system and it blows up in the maritimes, that could do some work in helping to get the second system south. We'll see. Lots of nuance here, but the big players hopefully should be fairly stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less). The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well, When I went to bed Sunday night I thought I was getting 2-4 inches and missing out on a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON looks more reasonable than the 0Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? This is quite complex Still getting used to seeing Wiz with the red tag. Feels like we should call him sir or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Still getting used to seeing Wiz with the red tag. Feels like we should call him sir or something. I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. I will still call you Kevin's bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 First global of the 0z crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: First global of the 0z crushes ICON is still an outlier but at least it's not raining in Quebec this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Full moon goon to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON is still an outlier but at least it's not raining in Quebec this run. What does outlier mean? Nice thermo contrast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Even shitty models are catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nice thermals on ICON....pellets south of the pike with single digit temps tickling N RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What does outlier mean? Nice thermo contrast Its warmer than the majority of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 All coming together. But wth the d7 lead time I’d like to be cautious for a few more days. Probably will get gfs in the morning.....trying to store some sleep...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: All coming together. But wth the d7 lead time I’d like to be cautious for a few more days. Probably will get gfs in the morning.....trying to store some sleep...lol. GFS already out to 72 and GGEM out in about 10-15 min....we all know you are staying up for them. It's a disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS already out to 72 and GGEM out in about 10-15 min....we all know you are staying up for them. It's a disease. Lol....maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. Congrats dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fri system trending stronger in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That friday system getting more interesting on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I have to go to Worcester Friday morning. Could be a rough drive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? This is quite complex There's no reason why this would be more likely to be prolific in NNE than SNE. You guys have a snowy climate, I keep banging that theme here. What has happened has been incredibly bad luck, IMO. But these training precip events along a front can set up anywhere. The cold air modeled looks ridiculous, so most areas can afford a warming trend and still be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fri system trending stronger in the midwest. Yes, definitely looks more amped. Gotta get to bed......but I just can’t!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs and cmc on different planets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2-4" on Friday on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GGEM is gonna be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is gonna be a cutter. Detroit might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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