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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 The stronger that first one is, it seems like the second should be further south.  That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south.

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ...  That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. 

Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs.

Ahh you put that a lot better than me but yeah that's what I was thinking when I saw the 18z GFS.

The stronger that first one is, the more likely the second one is further south.

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me.

78 announced itself with plenty of fanfare. The models (and W.D.) were on to it days in advance.

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I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less).   The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well,

It was one of those situations where the info was available and disseminated, but many paid little heed, despite the big January storm of a few weeks previous. Kind of like 38, it's hard to buy the seemingly improbable until you're wading in it, thigh deep.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

Just look at the wind fetch in SNE through most of the storm. Doesn’t turn northerly until the end. It’s a prolonged, twice as long, waa omega thump then what we typical see. All while being -10 to -15C at 925. 

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