EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope I like to make people squint for their snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 If the GFS and Euro hold serve at 0z and are joined by the CMC and Ukie, I would put a lot more belief in this solution despite it being 6 days out. That's a BIG "if", though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? Dianne gets sweet sweet revenge at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Way to early to throw numbers out there. But not too early for avatar changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Shitbag in chief already tweeted about how nice the snow looks in DC. That’s nice, how professional of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Was it yesterday the GFS gave somewhere in Maine 113 inches in one run, 31 the next and less than 10 in the next for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, mreaves said: But not too early for avatar changes. Maybe i should use a Kuchera map instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The wind with this event could make things even more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: That’s nice, how professional of you. It’s a weenie weather forum. Could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: The stronger that first one is, it seems like the second should be further south. That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ... That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs. Ahh you put that a lot better than me but yeah that's what I was thinking when I saw the 18z GFS. The stronger that first one is, the more likely the second one is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This one please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a weenie weather forum. Could care less. I see, good for you then. By the way, try "couldn't" next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope Holy hell, this would for sure be the end of me...all the weenies basking in 30inches, and im sloshing around in a few inches of glop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: I see, good for you then. By the way, try "couldn't" next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: I see, good for you then. By the way, try "couldn't" next time. right there with the "weary"/"wary" posts of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 shitbag - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: right there with the "weary"/"wary" posts of yore. And “hold serve” is not a phrase outside of tennis. Its use in this forum is made up as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: 93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me. 78 announced itself with plenty of fanfare. The models (and W.D.) were on to it days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: And “hold serve” is not a phrase. It’s made up in this forum as far as I can tell. Tennis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, 8611Blizz said: Tennis? Read my updated quote. Outside of tennis it’s not a phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Read my updated quote. Outside of tennis it’s not a phrase. Meh https://bluemanhoop.com/2018/05/01/warriors-look-hold-serve-home-game-2-vs-pelicans/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Meh https://bluemanhoop.com/2018/05/01/warriors-look-hold-serve-home-game-2-vs-pelicans/ Incorrect usage. Made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: Incorrect usage. Made up. I’m not disagreeing...it is a tennis term, but it has been used in other places. That was just a quick google search... If we said the models hit it out of the park that is equally wrong. Or more likely they struck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: 78 announced itself with plenty of fanfare. The models (and W.D.) were on to it days in advance. Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less). The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: I see, good for you then. By the way, try "couldn't" next time. Try this as well, right in between the buns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? This is quite complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gotta love the kuchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less). The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well, It was one of those situations where the info was available and disseminated, but many paid little heed, despite the big January storm of a few weeks previous. Kind of like 38, it's hard to buy the seemingly improbable until you're wading in it, thigh deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? This is quite complex Just look at the wind fetch in SNE through most of the storm. Doesn’t turn northerly until the end. It’s a prolonged, twice as long, waa omega thump then what we typical see. All while being -10 to -15C at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The jackpot will be further south than what the models have right now (not sure by how much yet). No bias, just see the PV going to push this further down. Friday's system will also be a catalyst that will cause the arctic boundary to move south as colder, drier air infiltrates from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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