qg_omega Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not mine but you are in Albany right Hour north... may be up there or closer to NYC next weekend depending on track hopefully it's clearer by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was calling for a major hurricane strike from the moment Harvey was named. Kind of screwed the pooch on Michael, though...expected like cat 3 at LF. Better than Cranky though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Better than Cranky though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ? Cat 1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That max band is snow,you know they have regional maps That is good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: What a run for the northeast. 1-3 feet of snow from Kansas east to Virginia and then up the northeast corridor followed by widespread 0F air. I don't know how this would stack up against other big US event snowstorms but this will subdue all the "Global Warming" chatter. Expect some tweets No it won't. The uninformed will blame the storm on global warming, as they are unable to differentiate between single weather events and climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Cat 1!! Not a fan of cranky. What..for Michael? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm OK with a sleetfest ala 2007(twice) here. Juiced 2" LE from SE PA thru Mass. Had 6 inch accumulation of pure sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not a fan of cranky. What..for Michael? Yep. Your call was safe...until it wasn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Had 6 inch accumulation of pure sleet. Yeah same here. 6 or 7" watching them attempt to plow the little ball bearings was comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: I think most folks know it's 7 days out, just fun to have something to track. But there are storms that models have picked up 7 days out and pretty much remained locked in.. so who knows. Yeah, like the present one going to our south. Different setup, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yep. Your call was safe...until it wasn’t. I did a write up on why that busted....the factors inhibiting intensification early actually doomed FL in the end because it staved off the ERC, and the semi permanent ridge over the SE precluded the usual ingestion of dry air. This is what I mean when I say the busts are more informative than the verified forecasts.....you fill knowledge gaps in the former, while the latter only serve to hone back patting skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I recall that vividly. I posted it.. of course got accused of hype by Will .. etc..and Ray agreed with me I just went back and looked at 2015 and 2013 and it seems like we were all expecting huge totals. Which makes sense because the model guidance was indicating every reason to expect monster totals. The biggest criticism I see in is in the 2015 thread, the massive broadbrush of 24-36" totals from Box and Okx....which turned out to be a valid criticism. The storm that I remember getting screwed on being too conservative was Jan 2011. Wasn't expecting 20+ widespread totals in that but we got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I just went back and looked at 2015 and 2013 and it seems like we were all expecting huge totals. Which makes sense because the model guidance was indicating every reason to expect monster totals. The biggest criticism I see in is in the 2015 thread, the massive broadbrush of 24-36" totals from Box and Okx....which turned out to be a valid criticism. The storm that I remember getting screwed on being too conservative was Jan 2011. Wasn't expecting 20+ widespread totals in that but we got them. I will say .. this upcoming one .. I don’t see it being huge. Maybe 12-18” type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I will say .. this upcoming one .. I don’t see it being huge. Maybe 12-18” type deal I'll reserve judgement at this point. No comment- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A pretty nice map here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I will say .. this upcoming one .. I don’t see it being huge. Maybe 12-18” type deal Anything is still on the table really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Way to early to throw numbers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Way to early to throw numbers out there. Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I will say .. this upcoming one .. I don’t see it being huge. Maybe 12-18” type deal Who is this and how much are you holding CT Blizz ransom for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, leo2000 said: A pretty nice map here This is why I mentioned sleet. I guess only at the start next panels transition to snow. Doesn't matter anyeay will change few times before final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 We've seen a ceaseless onslaught of juiced up systems in the last six months, so I don't see anything unreasonable in thinking we can pull some big QPF frozen events, especially with the upcoming pattern. Buckle up folks. Could be pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think a big storm is coming, but how it impacts the area remains a mystery. Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? Adding one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? I'll eat my laptop if i got that pivotal kuchie total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Adding one. Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 She’s a beaut Clark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? Considering how far out we are, they are remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: Sad times for us snow addicts. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Excellently said. Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame? Oh if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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