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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

As the current modeling stands, i don’t like the look. Too warm at ML for snow down this way.  Lotta low level cold though so could be a crippling storm for some as shown.

If there’s a major sleet storm, one could imagine a major ice storm on its fringes.  Better rain than an inch of ice. 

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Euro is pretty long duration event starting Friday with very light snow till maybe deep into Monday.

I wouldn’t believe that long duration crap at this point...those almost never work out like that.  

What usually happens is you get a lil burst...then there’s a lull..and usually a big lull at that.  Then you get the second part, and that is usually a let down from what we hope happens.  Seen it many times, as I’m sure you have too.  

Just another of many more solutions to come though. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t believe that long duration crap at this point...those almost never work out like that.  

What usually happens is you get a lil burst...then there’s a lull..and usually a big lull at that.  Then you get the second part, and that is usually a let down from what we hope happens.  Seen it many times, as I’m sure you have too.  

Just another of many more solutions to come though. 

Lol wut

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is there a website that produces point & click soundings a la College of DuPage & Tropical Tidbits, but for the FV3 GFS?

I agree - it would be useful ... Considering the FV3' slated to come on line (now) once the Government appropriations thing ends ... during these testing phases, absolutely it would be nice to familiarize one with sigma level tendencies (notice I didn't say "biases" - heh).

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree - it would be useful ... Considering the FV3' slated to come on line (now) once the Government appropriations thing ends ... during these testing phases, absolutely it would be nice to familiarize one with sigma level tendencies (notice I didn't say "biases" - heh).

You mean like this? Lol Pivotal Weather .com

68FD6685-7D68-47D4-91C4-04D461194ACD.png

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol wut

?? 

 

Cmon Ginx...we’ve seen this stuff a ton of times..I’m not buying 48 plus hours of precipitation wintry or not...it doesn’t usually happen like that.  You get a chunk of it, it stops and does nothing for 12-24 hours, then the second batch comes through...

but you can all think it’s gonna snow continually from Friday through Monday if you want.  I’ll take the way under on that as of now.  These solutions are gonna be all over the place as we go along.  

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I wouldn’t believe that long duration crap at this point...those almost never work out like that.  
What usually happens is you get a lil burst...then there’s a lull..and usually a big lull at that.  Then you get the second part, and that is usually a let down from what we hope happens.  Seen it many times, as I’m sure you have too.  
Just another of many more solutions to come though. 
Of course 5 days out we dont believe anything, just stating what the superior model is showing

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

?? 

 

Cmon Ginx...we’ve seen this stuff a ton of times..I’m not buying 48 plus hours of precipitation wintry or not...it doesn’t usually happen like that.  You get a chunk of it, it stops and does nothing for 12-24 hours, then the second batch comes through...

but you can all think it’s gonna snow continually from Friday through Monday if you want.  I’ll take the way under on that as of now.  These solutions are gonna be all over the place as we go along.  

And the second chunk either misses completely or is warmer than anticipated 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

?? 

 

Cmon Ginx...we’ve seen this stuff a ton of times..I’m not buying 48 plus hours of precipitation wintry or not...it doesn’t usually happen like that.  You get a chunk of it, it stops and does nothing for 12-24 hours, then the second batch comes through...

but you can all think it’s gonna snow continually from Friday through Monday if you want.  I’ll take the way under on that as of now.  These solutions are gonna be all over the place as we go along.  

Where were you in 1994? My lol wut was because you made zero sense with that post

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Of course 5 days out we dont believe anything, just stating what the superior model is showing

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I know you were just stating what it showed and that’s cool.  I was just saying I don’t believe the long nature continual snow/precipitation thing.  I think you’ll see this evolve into more of a two part thing going forward imo.  But we will see.  Like scooter said..could be a FROPA too..that would throw the weenies off the Tobin for sure.  The eye candy is fun..just don’t buy in to any of it st this point..good or not so good.  But Just my opinion. 

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

lol at the 06z fv3 clown.

 

I'm sure thousands have surmised similar to the following in their own imitable ways ... but, I've come to find those products to be vastly superior in art compared to their practicum in deterministic Meteorology...

One thing I've noticed my self ... but don't believe I've mentioned, is that relative to all of them/sourcing, if I were to take whatever amounts indicated, and ~ halved them, that factor of 2 makes them more useful. 

Not in every case... as I just said, there's an element of relativity; one has to balance against in situ synoptics, along with local-studies ...  In other words, an upslope/topographic boost 30" pounding on the eastern slopes of the NH Whites might show up as say 38" painted among that/those products. Though in error, that would still be in the 66 to 80 percentile, and thus acceptable and closer to useful.  But, 27" on the coastal flats of Maryland? That stresses believability ... particularly relative to this particular blended synoptic evolution.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Even 1994 had lulls in the Feb 8-11 event. Most it it fell in two pulses about 24-30 hours apart. I could see one weak pulse Friday and then the main show Sunday through early Monday morning. 

Yeah those systems usually have a lull but I think they are arguing semantics.  3 days of snow to one person means "off and on snow for 3 days", while the next poster thinks it means 72 straight hours of snow one at the ASOS.  

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where were you in 1994? My lol wut was because you made zero sense with that post

It made a ton of sense.   Sure it can happen once in a great while..but that is the exception rather than the rule.  But into it..maybe this time it really happens. We’ll see.  

 

Sure, I remember 94...but as I said..not the rule, and that was 25 years ago, hence my point.  

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