January 2019 Discussion

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately though ... ...that means we lose those June 19  111 F 2-meter temperature renditions.  For warm enthusiasts, heh...

This verified as 87.6° here.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember the contents of a UKMET write-up ... wanna say 6 years ago.  Which of course may make this moot... but it was espoused then that the model is actually ranked pretty high in the 500 mb feature evolution... but that it got there in the mean, more so than consistently showing the right solution?

Like, it sprayed solution, ...and the average position and depth of all tended to land reasonably well on the verification.... but no one solution along the way actually did.  One of those deals... I guess (yeah) that does sound like a crazy uncle if that's the case.

I've noticed is has a problem with east coast cyclogenesis...just a lot of extreme solutions. So while it may handle the longwave pattern well, it seems "off" when it comes to our own little world of winter wx. 

Doesnt mean it is useless though. It has scored some coups. More than a model like the GGEM. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It just means more fodder for the weenies.   Ineedsnow will post the snow totals from the FV3, only to have me ruin the party and Debbie it.

Most of the poster here will start banging it, Probably the worst bias it could have and they went overboard on correcting its big brothers warm bias with the fv3.

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It just means more fodder for the weenies.   Ineedsnow will post the snow totals from the FV3, only to have me ruin the party and Debbie it.

Hahaha it might do good with storms that are all snow

[ORH_wxman]

Clown range NAM is a whiff on any phasing. I'm posting this because it is a good frame to see on how we will either succeed or fail on a winter storm scenario. This is a failed scenario. You can see the southern stream misses the northern stream....what likely eventually happens is something like the euro...the southern stream may produce its own storm 36-48 hours later but since it whiffs on any northern interaction, you have a much higher thickness event....warmer. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've noticed is has a problem with east coast cyclogenesis...just a lot of extreme solutions. So while it may handle the longwave pattern well, it seems "off" when it comes to our own little world of winter wx. 

Doesnt mean it is useless though. It has scored some coups. More than a model like the GGEM. 

interesting yeah... I told you late last night my own experiences in using the UKMET .... not many

I remember glancing at it from time to time over the years... mainly when most other guidance were on board for some bomb or some thing and just sort of took it in that it looked similar and moved on.  I really don't know much about it, because part of that is my stingy bad attitude toward organizations that think their product is holier than thou and won't let you see it if you don't give up a testie -  f.u. man

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Tip, that would match what we notice and hence the term Crazy uncle.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Most of the poster here will start banging it, Probably the worst bias it could have and they went overboard on correcting its big brothers warm bias with the fv3.

Yup -

...this is paint by numbers

[Ginx snewx]

If you picked the Wildcat Sunday River Sugarloaf area for you Christmas vacation week you made a good choice.  WRF NAM feeds the rich eats the poor, majority of those areas stay snow and sleet

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup -

...this is paint by numbers

The true meaning of fake cold.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a I-89 disaster again setting up in a day and a half. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

If you picked the Wildcat Sunday River Sugarloaf area for you Christmas vacation week you made a good choice.  WRF NAM feeds the rich eats the poor, majority of those areas stay snow and sleet

They got dinged on that sou'easter up here, But are making a decent comeback under most folks radar here.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clown range NAM is a whiff on any phasing. I'm posting this because it is a good frame to see on how we will either succeed or fail on a winter storm scenario. This is a failed scenario. You can see the southern stream misses the northern stream....what likely eventually happens is something like the euro...the southern stream may produce its own storm 36-48 hours later but since it whiffs on any northern interaction, you have a much higher thickness event....warmer.

Comparing to the Euro ... I don't think that's actually the n/stream entity that's "phasing" anyway.  At 96 hours, ...the 00z Euro shows that feature bipass the Lakes and careen up into the Maritimes... It ejects a fresh new piece out of the east Pac near the B.C. coast and that catches up?

[dendrite]

The Ukie definitely has a bit of a warm bias when viewing those time-height bias plots. There's too many zones of >+0.30C in the troposphere for my liking. You really want to be in that light green or pink.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Comparing to the Euro ... I don't think that's actually the n/stream entity that's "phasing" anyway.  At 96 hours, ...the 00z Euro shows that feature bipass the Lakes and careen up into the Maritimes... It ejects a fresh new piece out of the east Pac near the B.C. coast and that catches up?

Yeah...I agree. The GFS is using that lead northern s/w while the Euro scoots that along and catches up with the trailing northern one. IOW, lots to iron out still and this could easily be a fail even though most models show some kind of hit right now.

[NorEastermass128]

I wonder whether it will be a 37F rain or 48F rain. #coastalSNEproblems

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I wonder whether it will be a 37F rain or 48F rain. #coastalSNEproblems

Up and in 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a I-89 disaster again setting up in a day and a half. 

How many crashes were there ? Was it shut down

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Comparing to the Euro ... I don't think that's actually the n/stream entity that's "phasing" anyway.  At 96 hours, ...the 00z Euro shows that feature bipass the Lakes and careen up into the Maritimes... It ejects a fresh new piece out of the east Pac near the B.C. coast and that catches up?

Yeah the euro totally whiffs the first northern stream. It does eventually have another that catches up but it is useless since we've wiped out our antecedent airmass by then. The key is that first northern piece imho. 

[mahk_webstah]

Walt Drag from Nyc thread

It's early, lots of sensitive interactions between northern and southern streams. My sense, the EC big warmth next week is wrong (Jan 7-11). Too much downhill flow in Canada, plus southern streamers continue and probably pretty good snow cover from somewhere nrn PA through much of NYS into northern central New England, making it easier maintain shallow cold. (a half foot or more increase possible over that of this Dec 30th morning.) Obvious wait and see but EC is very good at holding onto closed lows southern stream, but i tend to doubt its ensemble outlook week two, whereas GFS i think is reading a correct potential for phasing northern and southern streams around Jan 8-9, s of Nova Scotia.  Should be an interesting period 1/3-11.  Btw,  the 00z/30 EC  ensembles are a little faster than then the 00z EC op. GGEM/NAEFS is slower than the GFS, and am guessing Jan 4 Long duration comma head event, if I'm reading this right. 06z/30 GEFS is coming around big time to an extensive 1/2" or greater w.e. event.  Yes, probably too warm NYC,  but not very far nw of I95...its going to be an interesting week of potential substantial snows Jan 4 and 8ish.  Another event ensemble ~ Jan 12. So, the trough has been in the east since last July.  Means, if it can, it will precip but la/lo northern fringe always in doubt.  Am thinking we're good for 1/2" our more qpf 12/31, 1/4 and 8 ne PA-NNJ north to at least I-90.  Finally: just a comment on FV3. I have checked on this: to my knowledge here in the ne USA, i dont see it as an improvement on the current GFS model.  I am told in 2020, FV3 will be a significant improvement. Meanwhile unsure of FV3 implementation date. wd 8AM

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Also you dryslotted in the March snowstorm 

Lol, thanks for reminding me. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ...well, if that's the case, my bad -

but someone was dolin' it out over the fact that I've referenced the lesser reliable model types; which of course I know that they are lesser reliable, which if they had a clue themselves why deterministic Meteorology sometimes does look outside the box ...  that might stop them from looking like cackling hoi polloi nimrods. But ...such is the engagement on a faceless internet that exploits the fine virtuosity of anonymity.  Anyway, ...sorry but only if you are telling the truth ha!

let's see what happened over night

all good just a misunderstanding, I had not read the previous discussions.

[Great Snow 1717]

18 hours ago, Snow88 said:

True but you are alresdy declaring winter over in December .

When have I said winter is over????

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a no go on the gfs. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Everytime I look at the Day 15 ECMWF EPS, it just keeps getting worse and worse for Winter lovers in the US. We are entering a period where the cold outlooks for Jaanuary keep getting pushed back in time. A forecaster's nightmare …...from Ventrice's Twitter account

[Hoth]

Yeah big change at H5 for the worse.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro totally whiffs the first northern stream. It does eventually have another that catches up but it is useless since we've wiped out our antecedent airmass by then. The key is that first northern piece imho. 

well,,... yeah, and we're treading into the quagmire of detail eval on a system that's intrinsically still being designed in the models.... We prolly could spare a temple throb or two here.

That said, I sort of agree with Walter's general tenor re the warm look not making a great deal of sense against the background 'feel' ... that sensibility includes verificaiton subordinant tendencies that are more like emergent properties, which have favored cooler results, relative to all, at lesser excuses for occurring.  We get into this thing...if does that/good for a couple ticks and we're in business..  That's the holistic thinking.

But, not having an actual high pressure situated (relative to that run) over eastern Ontario egress toward the upper Maritimes d. straight region does enter the whiplash BL possibility just the same - which is what I believe you're alluding to.  Can't say I'd dismiss that as a possibility at this juncture.. Also, who's to say the GFS's trend is even done... could keep on going NW ...oy

[ORH_wxman]

Whiffed phase this run. This will be flat. 

[dryslot]

Northern stream out runs the southern stream s/w on the GFS, 12z GGEM was good hit especially up here, Pretty warm over SNE

[Ginx snewx]

Looking at individual Euro Ens members there is going to be a pretty intense storm 4th to 6th on the East Coast, with a new moon tide to boot. Not surprised.  Deets to be worked out.