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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Then a Tippy Cleveland superbomb.

Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically..

In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD -

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11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That mega bomb in the LR has at least been hinted at in one guise or another on the modeling for several days now. Strong s/w traverses the pole, rounds the PV and dive into the U.S. hard. Anyway, no reason to put much weight behind it, but interesting to watch.

Heh - you beat me by a single post :) 

yeah... it's a period of important amplitude I suspect... It's waaay out there. But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage.  Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however..

So, we'll see...  The EPS is in the throws of a pattern that's not antithetical too...   This could all mean anything -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically..

In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD -

This is the only anniversary I wish to repeat at this point. 8 years ago tonight 

FB_IMG_1547312061240.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Based on the FV3 maps in the MA forum, must be something akin to 1888 in there. 36-48"+ up the HV, western CT, western Mass, VT. Haven't seen the run yet, so can't confirm. Still, active and potentially fun period coming up.

Here's the snow chart off the eval site....breath taking totals

gfs_namer_240_snodpth_chng.gif

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey John.. where you been the last couple years?

I've been around Kev. Just mostly lurking here, reading more, posting less :) Also, lot's of other priorities cutting into my hobby. All good though. Trust you are well?

Let's rock and roll baby with some winter weather!

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Just now, WeatherX said:

I've been around Kev. Just mostly lurking here, reading more, posting less :) Also, lot's of other priorities cutting into my hobby. All good though. Trust you are well?

Let's rock and roll baby with some winter weather!

Doing well . I’ve seen on FB you’ve been busy . Congrats! You talk to LL at all? 

Seems like winter has arrived 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them.  Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance?  Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well?

 Because the srefs are their own level of suckage.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them.  Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance?  Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well?

They suffer from just being themselves.

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them.  Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance?  Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well?

I think that can be said of any situation 8 days out.

 

As far as your question about the SREF, that's reason to want the shut-down to continue.

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next weekend is on my radar, but I just can’t get excited about any fantasy modeled after that. I guess a stormy LR is good, but that’s all I take from that. Weenie d12 clown maps make me yawn. 

I usually don't comment in any long term threads.  I'm like a horse with those side blinders on.  I only look out to day 5 to perhaps day 7.  In any event people have been honking the upcoming period for along time.  Hope SNE now gets there share and more...

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