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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Puts me at 170 days with a least a trace of precip this year, tomorrow night will be 171 if it rains before midnight. Holy wet cloudy friggin year, when you take into account we went basically 4 weeks this summer without rain that's a whole lot of crap days

You've had an astoundingly wet year. It's been very wet here too, but you've got me beat by a solid 10". 

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So I see what you mean, then, Brian -

If I may make a supposition/suggestion? 

I bet that incongruency may be because the operational GFS has found it's way (06z ) to an almost perfect dynamic fold model... and is processing the atmosphere colder ... so in effect, compensating its own bias. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

The whole 1000-500 layer runs cold. So it's not just a surface thing. 

You know ... ( I love a good conspiracy theory) ... one wonders ... The operational GFS has spent the last 18 months with an embarrassing torch bias in the boundary layer... now this?

Seems a bit "interestingly compensating" huh?   But maybe it's intended to fix that and isn't so secretive either. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You've had an astoundingly wet year. It's been very wet here too, but you've got me beat by a solid 10". 

SE winds with convergence into small elevated hills. Ryan tweeted an excellent paper on the effect plus I had that training redeveloping Tstorm that continually raked my area in Sept for a 4.95 day that most had only 2. Also you dryslotted in the March snowstorm 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... ( I love a good conspiracy theory) ... one wonders ... The operational GFS has spent the last 18 months with an embarrassing torch bias in the boundary layer... now this?

Seems a bit "interestingly compensating" huh?   But maybe it's intended to fix that and isn't so secretive either. 

A friend of mine who is a NOAA contractor was specifically working on that op bias over the past year or two. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

SE winds with convergence into small elevated hills. Ryan tweeted an excellent paper on the effect plus I had that training redeveloping Tstorm that continually raked my area in Sept for a 4.95 day that most had only 2. Also you dryslotted in the March snowstorm 

I think the area from you to Taunton-Plymouth did really well QPF wise. I think we had near 70” here. And to think no major flooding issues. That’s how you run a wet year.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

You can see it in the weenie snow algorithms too. It’s quite obvious. Good to see we ****ed up another model. 

Oh come on, Scott...

You know full-well that the collective of this particular internet enclave prefers delusion over despair ... hahaha.

Unfortunately though ... :( ...that means we lose those June 19  111 F 2-meter temperature renditions.  For warm enthusiasts, heh...

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh come on, Scott...

You know full-well that the collective of this particular internet enclave prefers delusion over despair ... hahaha.

Unfortunately though ... :( ...that means we lose those June 19  111 F 2-meter temperature renditions.  For warm enthusiasts, heh...

It just means more fodder for the weenies. :lol:  Ineedsnow will post the snow totals from the FV3, only to have me ruin the party and Debbie it.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the area from you to Taunton-Plymouth did really well QPF wise. I think we had near 70” here. And to think no major flooding issues. That’s how you run a wet year.

The small stream at the bottom of my hill, Snake Meadow Brook, runs into the Moosup River. It never flooded but stayed at bankfull since the fall. Happy for my well the water tables recovered to pre 2012 levels.

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I remember the contents of a UKMET write-up ... wanna say 6 years ago.  Which of course 6 years may make this moot... but it was espoused then that the model is actually ranked pretty high in the 500 mb feature evolution... but that it got there in the mean, more so than consistently showing the right solution?

Like, it sprays solution in subsequent runs, ...and it's the average position and depth of all that tended to land reasonably well on the verification.... but no one solution along the way actually did.  One of those deals... I guess (yeah) that does sound like a crazy uncle if that's the case.

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