January 2019 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also possible that the PV sinks south and goes back to yesterday's solutions...but people need to understand that with the energy out west, ridge not really a PNA ridge yet, and no big -NAO...it's definitely a hugger or even a cutter risk. As usual this far out, all options on table.

Mm...  which is why I surmised equally optimistic and pessimistic about the way things looked yesterday at this time... 

The model solutions, themselves, may not look exactly the same with details and features and synoptic this or that, ...but the fact that they look antithetic to enthusiasts is an absolute no-brainer expectation.  I warned this.. and, the compression/gradient saturation was an issue.  

The PNA being unresponsive to recent migration of an MJO that had to "tunnel" it's way through the atmosphere/Phases 8 to begin with ...was all a red flag that the hemisphere/Pacific circulation engine is simply not ready to switch gears.  

You know...I'm in a pause - almost not sure which way to go... I see equally voices in the din of possibilities...  The modestly warm ENSO which frankly ... I just read the NINO PDF and they are officially labeling ENSO-NEUTRAL right now?  Forgive me,... but is "Modoki" a ENSO-NEUTRAL.  I seriously don't know... But, I've been checking CPC periodic PDF updates since late summer and lots of threats for emerging El Nino but what is this...  three months later and still neutral...  Okay.  But, assuming there is some sort of baser foundation for warming ENSO in there somewhere, "perhaps" there is an evolving correlation for later loaded winter...  Lot of IF's n that stream of conscience.  Jesus Christ.  

Assuming any of that parlays favorably... that whole SSW --> -AO is now also now appearing to register in the GEFs derivaties may be helpful if/when it lands on top/times with it... But, that's all predicated on the assumption that the hemispheric negative interference finally breaks toward.... f'n anything else at this point!  'Nother Jesus Christ.  

Still on a more positive note...  SSW --> -AO is still in play.  It's just perhaps muted by a foment of opposing mid latitude forces..  But the cold loading into the Canadian Shield isn't really being denied.  Having a continental -scaled -20 C 850 mb mass of troposphere with several -30 C nodes rollin' around in the belly ...certainly is not a bad circumstances for "setting the table"  ... We have our local climate and proximity geographic favoring that we could accidentally score a winter profiled situation ... it only seems out of reach because of the non-relenting butt bangs..  

The -EPO/-PNA is ... not as good at all times...  And even if the PNA is technically not negative?  Folks need to learn what 'relativity' really means.  Just because the numbers at CPC or CDC or what-have-us EPS may say +.5 SD PNA ... if the super-synoptic forcing is counter-acting that may as well be a -.5 PNA... It's the same saying "relative to all" we need a +2 SD PNA to play with this thing...  and I suspect this sort of "invisible"/intangible may be going on...  

 

[Chrisrotary12]

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve had snow. We haven’t 

We're literally within 3" of each other on the season.

[OSUmetstud]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not so sure you can tie everything in directly to MJO as far as individual events. It’s really more for the big picture stuff. Things like pieces of vorticity phasing into troughs are simply part of small scale nuances and chaos. From what I see, the tropical forcing  subsides and doesn’t seem to have a huge effect. It looks fairly favorable imo on a large scale.

I read the klotzbach et al. paper on the mjo and se sne snowfall yesterday. Approaching 15 percent increase in phases 7 and 8 and 15 percent decrease in phases 4 and 5. It definitely helps but its just one piece of the puzzle. More relevant for medium and long range favorable vs. unfavorable stuff. 

[Whineminster]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You could have a 33F rainer...  they happen... a lot

That would probably be snow for us if he's 33 and rain, so I would take that

[weathafella]

I think low amplitude MJO logically has a reduced effect?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I read the klotzbach et al. paper on the mjo and se sne snowfall yesterday. Approaching 15 percent increase in phases 7 and 8 and 15 percent decrease in phases 4 and 5. It definitely helps but its just one piece of the puzzle. More relevant for medium and long range favorable vs. unfavorable stuff. 

Just to clarify, I meant the forcing weakens over the next two weeks, but still seems fairly favorable. VP200 on the EPS doesn't have a clear signal IMO.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think low amplitude MJO logically has a reduced effect?

See ... I don't think people really learn when this stuff is present in here...  I've explained this to the point of this:  

and it's like "how" could this question be asked! 

The MJO is not a pattern drive ... it is a pattern augmentation ... it has an influence... it can add to, or take away - 

We've said this hundred times  - use logic:  what do you think ?

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s talking about warm lakes cuts. Not following 

Obviously.

Santa's Little Helper

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe having the models show a lakes cutter is a good thing.

Most of the storms this winter have trended sourh.

[Typhoon Tip]

Sorry to be snarky Jerry ...just forget it..

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just to clarify, I meant the forcing weakens over the next two weeks, but still seems fairly favorable. VP200 on the EPS doesn't have a clear signal IMO.

 

What does ?   ...seem favorable? 

I don't think this recent MJO migration means much of anything... It's found somehow momentum to pass through but it's effectiveness is being too heavily offset/negated/damped to really register so much ... So I'm curious what exactly is favorable and willing to learn why  

 

[ORH_wxman]

Talking in absolutes 9 days out is ridiculous...that is really all that needs to be said. It doesn't matter whether we're talking about a cutter or a blizzard, nobody would ever forecast in absolutes 9 days out. Even in a very favorable pattern....patterns more favorable than 1/20.....we've seen cutters. They are just harder to get the more favorable the pattern is, but if you get enough phasing with potent shortwaves, then they are very hard to stop.

The nuances of the PV, pv lobes, and any shortwave coming in from the west coast is something we cannot predict at this time range. All we know is there will likely be a system somewhere near the center of the country around then and we will have solid cold air over us....what happens after that in the following 36 hours is anyone's guess. That's a pretty good roll of the dice for us....there are a lot of ways we can get snow out of that....but there are also ways for it to cut....so you cannot rule out either scenario. What you look for in good patterns is a lot of chances that skew more toward snow...you are likely to hit on several chances if you get a bunch 50/50 or 60/40 shots in a row.

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does ?   ...seem favorable? 

I don't think this recent MJO migration means much of anything... It's found somehow momentum to pass through but it's effectiveness is being too heavily offset/negated/damped to really register so much ... So I'm curious what exactly is favorable and willing to learn why  

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1

Not exactly what scott was talking about but related. 

[mahk_webstah]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...  which is why I surmised equally optimistic and pessimistic about the way things looked yesterday at this time... 

The model solutions, themselves, may not look exactly the same with details and features and synoptic this or that, ...but the fact that they look antithetic to enthusiasts is an absolute no-brainer expectation.  I warned this.. and, the compression/gradient saturation was an issue.  

The PNA being unresponsive to recent migration of an MJO that had to "tunnel" it's way through the atmosphere/Phases 8 to begin with ...was all a red flag that the hemisphere/Pacific circulation engine is simply not ready to switch gears.  

You know...I'm in a pause - almost not sure which way to go... I see equally voices in the din of possibilities...  The modestly warm ENSO which frankly ... I just read the NINO PDF and they are officially labeling ENSO-NEUTRAL right now?  Forgive me,... but is "Modoki" a ENSO-NEUTRAL.  I seriously don't know... But, I've been checking CPC periodic PDF updates since late summer and lots of threats for emerging El Nino but what is this...  three months later and still neutral...  Okay.  But, assuming there is some sort of baser foundation for warming ENSO in there somewhere, "perhaps" there is an evolving correlation for later loaded winter...  Lot of IF's n that stream of conscience.  Jesus Christ.  

Assuming any of that parlays favorably... that whole SSW --> -AO is now also now appearing to register in the GEFs derivaties may be helpful if/when it lands on top/times with it... But, that's all predicated on the assumption that the hemispheric negative interference finally breaks toward.... f'n anything else at this point!  'Nother Jesus Christ.  

Still on a more positive note...  SSW --> -AO is still in play.  It's just perhaps muted by a foment of opposing mid latitude forces..  But the cold loading into the Canadian Shield isn't really being denied.  Having a continental -scaled -20 C 850 mb mass of troposphere with several -30 C nodes rollin' around in the belly ...certainly is not a bad circumstances for "setting the table"  ... We have our local climate and proximity geographic favoring that we could accidentally score a winter profiled situation ... it only seems out of reach because of the non-relenting butt bangs..  

The -EPO/-PNA is ... not as good at all times...  And even if the PNA is technically not negative?  Folks need to learn what 'relativity' really means.  Just because the numbers at CPC or CDC or what-have-us EPS may say +.5 SD PNA ... if the super-synoptic forcing is counter-acting that may as well be a -.5 PNA... It's the same saying "relative to all" we need a +2 SD PNA to play with this thing...  and I suspect this sort of "invisible"/intangible may be going on...  

 

yes up here I like a -PNA when we can get enough -AO to Miller B or SWFE.  Scott seems to raise the possibility there won't be enough from above to make that happen.  It would seem quite possible, perhaps likely, that it will trend to that better scenario though

[WinterWolf]

Lol every Teleconnection seems to take it's turn in the Spotlight.  A while back it was the NAO and AO, then a few years later it was the PV, then a few years back it was the EPO, and now this winter it's the MJO.   Give it another season and it'll be a new one. 

 

As many have said, they are all pieces of the puzzle-a marriage of sorts...other things can override the signal and still give you a good snowstorm/outcome, we've seen it happen here many times.  But some are just MJO happy all of a sudden and think if the MJO isn't in a favorable phase, well then that's it and there's no storm, or it's a warm outcome/cutter what have you.  

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol every Teleconnection seems to take it's turn in the Spotlight.  A while back it was the NAO and AO, then a few years later it was the PV, then a few years back it was the EPO, and now this winter it's the MJO.   Give it another season and it'll be a new one. 

 

As many have said, they are all pieces of the puzzle-a marriage of sorts...other things can override the signal and still give you a good snowstorm/outcome, we've seen it happen here many times.  But some are just MJO happy all of a sudden and think if the MJO isn't in a favorable phase, well then that's it and there's no storm, or it's a warm outcome/cutter what have you.  

Next year I’m only following the 5am updates of the KFS. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1

Not exactly what scott was talking about but related. 

Yeah.. thx Nick! 

I'm aware of that and other specific local studies... 

I was sort of jumping into your conversation not knowing it's exact evolution..... wasn't sure if there was some other systemic correlations y'all were discussing. 

My thing is simple:  The MJO won't correlate as well with expected verification, during eras when the leading super-synoptic-scaled interferences are in a destructive mode, relative the MJO.  

It's kinda sorta obvious too... Just knowing at a principle level that there are no 1::1 correlations between air, land, and sea on Earth for a reason... 

I bet the biggest blizzard and dystopian horror storm bomb ever to strike the East Coast happened before the arrival of modern science, and it happened in a Phase 5 MJO ... it's just that the 10's of thousands of other blizzards and bombs happen in Phase 8 -... something like that, albeit tongue-in-cheek. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I'll hang in there if this one cuts, which is a distinct possibility, but if the next one fails, I'm going to teeter.....the frustration is beginning to propagate down from mind, and in about 14 days it will downwell onto my keyboard.

I still suspect 1/20 may find a way to work out, though....but no argument as to why it may not. All valid concerns.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by Bluewave.

The MJO is REALLY starting to anger me!

MJO back into phase 5 was expected by most.  Amazing how fast it traveled from 6 to 8

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'll hang in there is this one cuts, which is a distinct possibility, but if the next one fails, I'm going to teeter.....

I still suspect 1/20 may find a way to work out, though....but no argument as to why it may not. All valid concerns.

Totally agree!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'll hang in there is this one cuts, which is a distinct possibility, but if the next one fails, I'm going to teeter.....

I still suspect 1/20 may find a way to work out, though....but no argument as to why it may not. All valid concerns.

I think it was 1/18/15 when we had the final cutter that month and it was coming off a day where the highs were in the teens and low 20s and lows in the single digits. The melts were hilarious. So many gave up. It didn't even have a front end thump to it...at least in SNE it didn't. It went from frigid and then started as straight rain....maybe a little ZR far interior.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol every Teleconnection seems to take it's turn in the Spotlight.  A while back it was the NAO and AO, then a few years later it was the PV, then a few years back it was the EPO, and now this winter it's the MJO.   Give it another season and it'll be a new one. 

 

As many have said, they are all pieces of the puzzle-a marriage of sorts...other things can override the signal and still give you a good snowstorm/outcome, we've seen it happen here many times.  But some are just MJO happy all of a sudden and think if the MJO isn't in a favorable phase, well then that's it and there's no storm, or it's a warm outcome/cutter what have you.  

Two schools here:

one... you're likely reading a lot of content on the web that's conjecture ... which is about as valuable as what that implies. Even the most sophisticated grammar and parts of speech construction can come across as quite convincing ...and not be totally correct.  This is then discovered by the author at some point along the way ... who then looks at the latest paper and/or meme of the day for the next BBD facet and then starts coining turns of phrase that sounds just as marvelous and awe-inspiring ... Until those prove faux ... But that 'shifting' focus is a lot of what you are (likely) sensing   - buuuut, this is conjecture   ... taken fwiw. 

two... this is an inexact science.  Those who also can write and/or orate with convincing polish, if they are objective and honest, will tell you to focus on the qualifiers of their content... Those important 'colorization' that get ignored too easily by those that filter what is content, through the tint of biases for what the want to hear.  Which is getting into a different phenomenon... But the point is, the ambit of the science probably really thought sincerely that the MJO was the whole cookie holy grail back in the 1990s... Now it seems to be the SSW stuff is popular...  but there are those that hold onto the MJO with obsessive disregard for much else (apparently!)  But during the whole way, this is an evolving science?  So one should have a built in qualifier of expectations that fall shy of any certitude - obviously the focus shifts as the science evolves. 

[OSUmetstud]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. thx Nick! 

I'm aware of that and other specific local studies... 

I was sort of jumping into your conversation not knowing it's exact evolution..... wasn't sure if there was some other systemic correlations y'all were discussing. 

My thing is simple:  The MJO won't correlate as well with expected verification, during eras when the leading super-synoptic-scaled interferences are in a destructive mode, relative the MJO.  

It's kinda sorta obvious too... Just knowing at a principle level that there are no 1::1 correlations between air, land, and sea on Earth for a reason... 

I bet the biggest blizzard and dystopian horror storm bomb ever to strike the East Coast happened before the arrival of modern science, and it happened in a Phase 5 MJO ... it's just that the 10's of thousands of other blizzards and bombs happen in Phase 8 -... something like that, albeit tongue-in-cheek. 

Yeah. And thats why the study specifically works with phases above 1 stdev on the wheeler-hendon diagram. In lower amplitudes the signal just washes out relative to the other forcing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think it was 1/18/15 when we had the final cutter that month and it was coming off a day where the highs were in the teens and low 20s and lows in the single digits. The melts were hilarious. So many gave up. It didn't even have a front end thump to it...at least in SNE it didn't. It went from frigid and then started as straight rain....maybe a little ZR far interior.

I remember...this is the parallel that I am drawing in my mind. This next 20 days is crucial...if we make it to February without a major event, then I will be very concerned about my snowfall ideas. Not there yet. I think very good come back will still be on the table, but my numbers won't work out if we wait that long.

[OSUmetstud]

Mjo is definitely the weenie buzzword of the year though. 

[cut]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'll hang in there if this one cuts, which is a distinct possibility, but if the next one fails, I'm going to teeter.....the frustration is beginning to propagate down from mind, and in about 14 days it will downwell onto my keyboard.

I still suspect 1/20 may find a way to work out, though....but no argument as to why it may not. All valid concerns.

Yah - if 20th fails and it's "great pattern at the end of that run" this snow lover is out.

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1

Not exactly what scott was talking about but related. 

What's your snow totals in inches please 

Saw this from New Foundland

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Mjo is definitely the weenie buzzword of the year though. 

2013, 2014 polar vortex.....yup.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Very true, good post...weather fanatics always searching for that holy grail of sorts...add early snow cover in Siberia, Edmonton and Saskatchewan...or Texas for that matter...if it’s snowin Texas you’re almost guaranteed a cutter several days later  

Give me - EPO or give me death. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember...this is the parallel that I am drawing in my mind. This next 20 days is crucial...if we make it to February without a major event, then I will be very concerned about my snowfall ideas. Not there yet. I think very good come back will still be on the table, but my numbers won't work out if we wait that long.

I'd already be concerned about your totals...starting from such a low point. I don't doubt the big 6-8 week period, but even a 50 or 60 spot will leave most well short of your forecast...and that's a big finish too (A place like ORH would be 10-20 higher than those numbers). If we had managed what we usually do in a combo of crappy and average patterns (even a brief good pattern in early Dec), then you'd be looking a lot better.

Even storms that don't totally work out, getting 3" on the front end helps the seasonal totals in the end. We haven't been able to even do that.