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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No I lean towards stating facts when discussing EPS model output. So silly. A lot can and will change this weekend and next week. 

Is the dropping  AO, the increasing NAO blocking not enough to push it to redevelop on the coast?  Because that is nine days out in the long range forecast has shown a drop in AO and NAO is that not correct?  So if it really is a cutter does not suggest that the long range predictions could be wrong yet again?  

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also possible that the PV sinks south and goes back to yesterday's solutions...but people need to understand that with the energy out west, ridge not really a PNA ridge yet, and no big -NAO...it's definitely a hugger or even a cutter risk. As usual this far out, all options on table.

That's the biggest question mark for me. If the PV does trend south then we're looking at a gradient type of system, perhaps even a SWFE depending on its positioning. 

There's a lot of cold bleeding south. 

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put down the pipe

No pipe, all eadibles only.

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn't say going, I'm saying it's certainly on the table. Given the chaos lately...I'd be an idiot to claim one way or the other. 

I’m ruffling your feathers. 

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Got to the point in here where discussion is forecast, maybe time to let them whine to each other and sit back and watch.

Just joshing, deep winter ahead whether it starts next weekend or the week after. 

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's the biggest question mark for me. If the PV does trend south then we're looking at a gradient type of system, perhaps even a SWFE depending on its positioning. 

There's a lot of cold bleeding south. 

I stated a couple of times yesterday that the modulation of the PV will run our show. There is a ton of heavy cold I agree

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I’m not so sure you can tie everything in directly to MJO as far as individual events. It’s really more for the big picture stuff. Things like pieces of vorticity phasing into troughs are simply part of small scale nuances and chaos. From what I see, the tropical forcing  subsides and doesn’t seem to have a huge effect. It looks fairly favorable imo on a large scale.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe having the models show a lakes cutter is a good thing.

Most of the storms this winter have trended sourh.

You cant apply the past to the future when discussing individual events.  What you can do is invoke the foolish weenie rule number 1. Once modeling latches on to a cutter it will stay a cutter. 

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