Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

Yup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 5.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

Hazey might care.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

Looks fine to us:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_42.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

Nobody cares, not going to happen, move on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

So those reds over the arctic and greenland are just an illusion? Hmmm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's also possible that the PV sinks south and goes back to yesterday's solutions...but people need to understand that with the energy out west, ridge not really a PNA ridge yet, and no big -NAO...it's definitely a hugger or even a cutter risk. As usual this far out, all options on table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS says what cutter 

You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850  2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850  2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question 

So you’re leaning lakes cutter 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cutter is def possible for all the reasons Scooter mentioned. The storm is like 9 days out though. Not sure why anyone would rule a particular solution out at that time range. Doesn't change anything in the long term though. 

If past model performance is indicative of current, we should be glad that they've trended toward a miss at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...