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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol way out from Logan. Thats still a long shot, easy 20 to 1 odds. Pickles done snookered them.

Pickles wouldn't even take 5 to 1.

 

I think 5 to 1 woulda been still a good deal for him. I'd prob sell on 20 to 1 though. We've already done it once and came very close 2 other times in the past 25 years.

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is probably the worst ever at verifying anything beyond D6 in the models.  This is vastly beyond the usual uncertainty and failure to do so at those sort of time ranges. The worst I've witnessed in the 25 years I've been privy to weather technology... Not sure I'm seeing any reason why that should suddenly improve.  

In the meantime... I'm hoping the -30 C 850 MB plume over western Ontario at 216 hours comes squarely over the Great Lakes - just to see what happens. 

And according to 12z GFS, H8 drops to -39 at FVE 36 hours later.  Verbatim, they would spend Jan 21-22 on the Arctic side of -20F.  Ain't happening.  Also, that run gives our area zippo qpf into day 9, just like the model looked this time last month (except for the deep freeze.) 

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

And according to 12z GFS, H8 drops to -39 at FVE 36 hours later.  Verbatim, they would spend Jan 21-22 on the Arctic side of -20F.  Ain't happening.  Also, that run gives our area zippo qpf into day 9, just like the model looked this time last month (except for the deep freeze.) 

Yup, that isn't happening at all.   If it did...the Melts would be Unreal.  But then again the way it's been going....lol

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are your meds suppressed?

Ha! ....riight...   nah, just being realistic. 

That's not a good pattern for much. 

I suppose one could argue that getting cold loaded into and above the 40th parallel over N/A is better than not having that...  But, the flow is too fast all fields...  It's basically what I wrote about in the daily diatribe ...  -EPO/-PNA ...   It can be both good or bad... this version is bad.  Sorry - 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s the 17th threat look?

Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah.

Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha! ....riight...   nah, just being realistic. 

That's not a good pattern for much. 

I suppose one could argue that getting cold loaded into and above the 40th parallel over N/A is better than not having that...  But, the flow is too fast all fields...  It's basically what I wrote about in the daily diatribe ...  -EPO/-PNA ...   It can be both good or bad... this version is bad.  Sorry - 

I'd wait for the ensemble, bro...deterministic OP at day 7?

Pass-

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah.

Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out.

We always end up scoring snow in these patterns when a random op run shows teens and dry 

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