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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ray ....done 

if Jerry is measuring in Brookline ill

go 80” season total (end of April or whatever)

but I don’t beleive jerry has a proper set up for measuring snow .....

100 you pay me and 200 I pay you 

or 50 you pay me and 100 I pay you 

either one works

and no way Will would I have gone higher in odds  ...this is a weak Nino....

$100 at 2:1.

Deal.

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The issue becomes that the potential 8 week period keeps getting pushed forward. This week is off the books. Next week doesn't look all that promising. There is a distinct possibility that 1/19 arrives without much snowfall at that point.

My 8 week period has always began 1/20. People give me crap for mentioning the outlook so much, but I can't slam this point home enough, apparently. No offense at all intended.

Should 1/20 miss, there will be plenty more shots imo.

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The only way I realistically see the Boston area getting 70"-80" here on out till the end of the season is by "Direct" hits by coastal bombs.  Yes, the other way is by rapid hitting clippers going underneath us that deposit 3"-6" or 4"-8" fairly consistantly.  If I had to guess, like the 68'-69" season, you definately need 2 bomb cylones to direct hit and then a little help with a few direct hit clipper system diving under favorably.

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Just now, Greg said:

The only way I realistically see the Boston area getting 70"-80" here on out till the end of the season is by "Direct" hits by coastal bombs.  Yes, the other way is by rapid hitting clippers going underneath us that deposit 3"-6" or 4"-8" fairly consistantly.  If I had to guess, like the 68'-69" season, you definately need 2 bomb cylones to direct hit and then a little help with a few direct hit clipper system diving under favorably.

2 bombs hitting Boston between 1/20 and 2/20...yes.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My 8 week period has always began 1/20. People give me crap for mentioning the outlook so much, but I can't slam this point home enough, apparently. No offense at all intended.

Should 1/20 miss, there will be plenty more shots imo.

I wasn't giving you crap. 

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I do see very much so what Ray is alluding to.  There actually is plenty of time to catch up in the snow department. Hell, I remember the April 6-7 1982 storm as a kid around here so that example shows you how long our snow season can really last unless you also use May 9-10 1977 but now then we're starting to get into semantics.

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3 minutes ago, Greg said:

I do see very much so what Ray is alluding to.  There actually is plenty of time to catch up in the snow department. Hell, I remember the April 6-7 1982 storm as a kid around here so that example shows you how long our snow season can really last unless you also use May 9-10 1977 but now then we're starting to get into semantics.

True...but if I go into April needing 20"+, its probably time to write the check and eulogy haha

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I will say one thing about the list of huge finishes in BOS I posted earlier....most of them were El Nino or warm neutral. It's not surprising, but obviously since we're in a weak Nino, that will help. We're also not in a situation where there is no sign of pattern change...we're already doing it right now.

 

Still, we're going to need some good fortune to rack up 75+. That will take at least one epic storm and then probably at least 3 other warning events to go with the usual clipper/IVT/front ender scraps that add up.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I will say one thing about the list of huge finishes in BOS I posted earlier....most of them were El Nino or warm neutral. It's not surprising, but obviously since we're in a weak Nino, that will help. We're also not in a situation where there is no sign of pattern change...we're already doing it right now.

 

Still, we're going to need some good fortune to rack up 75+. That will take at least one epic storm and then probably at least 3 other warning events to go with the usual clipper/IVT/front ender scraps that add up.

How about just starting with a 1-3” for Christ’s sake 

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