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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2 full months of winter lost lol. 4-5 week window . We hope 

Pack season basically lost 

what a gradient thou , Mitch at 65 just over Mass border at 2K, ORH airport 9.5” at 1k. 

Storm after storm the rain snow line cut from N berks/S Vt to Dentrite to gray Maine . From Novie to January 

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The wait continues, but I like the sound of this from WPC.  I also like artic air incursions to be focused to our west a bit at this time of the year, perhaps that leaves room for amplification and Miller Bs for us.  And if there s blocking to our NE then does that not also slow the flow and ensure a source of cold air?

 

A trend is becoming evident among the guidance that a rather
significant pattern change could begin to unfold toward the latter
portion of the medium range and beyond. Model/ensemble solutions
continue to trend stronger with the upper ridge across western
North America by the middle of next week, while a downstream upper
vortex deepens north of Hudson Bay, setting up broad
north-northwesterly flow from the Arctic into central Canada.
Farther south across the CONUS, the flow appears to remain
progressive, originating in the North Pacific, which should limit
the southward intrusion of arctic air into the CONUS for now.
Nonetheless, would expect an area of arctic air to begin pooling
across central Canada by the middle of next week, with the
potential for incursions southward, especially into the
Midwest/Great Lakes.
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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Pack season basically lost 

what a gradient thou , Mitch at 65 just over Mass border at 2K, ORH airport 9.5” at 1k. 

Storm after storm the rain snow line cut from N berks/S Vt to Dentrite to gray Maine . From Novie to January 

Yeah but he gets upslope so need to consider that. If you take out that, the gradient from synoptic events is less, but still there. 

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26 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lol Sorry fella.....but don't you agree a little bit? 

To me ideally if winter is going to be loaded one of the halves take the front load.  Snow for the holidays into January similar to last season but without the March wallop I probably would have written ratter so who knows....

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

To me ideally if winter is going to be loaded one of the halves take the front load.  Snow for the holidays into January similar to last season but without the March wallop I probably would have written ratter so who knows....

People grade a back loaded winter significantly higher, it’s fresh in their minds/recency bias 

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5 hours ago, Randy4Confluence said:

Hi. Wasn't sure,  did your LR forecast include X-treme cold. Looks to me that's coming to a theatre near you as well. The GFS is really locking in some snot-freezing cold in the 10+ day!  Good luck on your KU. Hard to imagine you not having anything OTG before we enter Feb. 

I think I had Jan +1 to +2 and Feb -2 to -3

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23 hours ago, JBinStoughton said:

Nothing since November is downtime? Downtime from what? 

Downtime from average lol.  Even half of average would have been something. I would like to know what the highest seasonal average from any winter has been when the Dec 1 - Jan 15 period has only had a T or 0.0 snow for both NYC and Boston.

 

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