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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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edit: for some reason i cannot get the gif to animate on this site...happens all the time. Really annoying problem with Amex.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The northern stream also dives in big time on the GFS. Massive difference....Euro hangs back SW energy, but it's actually not that much more than the GFS does, only slightly. Look at the northern stream though....

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Can already tell that the FV3 GFS  will have it and it's only out to hour 60.. This is coming!

The 3 hasn’t seen a shortwave it couldn’t turn into a snowstorm.

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I will have to get some rest, we got a lot of potential weather this upcoming month of January after the New Year holiday.

Come back next year king weenie. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The key is the northern stream energy diving south around day 3 and how it interacts with southern stream....the Euro whiffs on the phase/partial phase because it hangs back the southern stream over the southwest US. The other guidance at 00z tonight does not unless we include the 72-84 hour NAM as part of the guidance suite....I suppose we can, but it's less skilled than the other at this time lead.

My money is on a correction there....that remains a bias of the EURO.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The 3 hasn’t seen a shortwave it couldn’t turn into a snowstorm.

Come back next year king weenie. 

I have to agree here. The parallelogram has not been shy about wintery profiled events over the last month and how many have verified that I have been beyond day four or five?

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will I don't know how that post did that - that was general audience directed 

I was complaining about my comparison of the GFS and Euro not animating despite me uploading an animated GIF file. This site loves to do that on a fairly regular basis. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

 

Anyways, here's the still frame comparison....note the obscene difference in the northern stream.

 

 

Dec29-30GFSEuroCompare.png

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 Anyway… The uptick in amplitude coming in this evening sort of feels expected to me? Not sure what the euros going to show regarding this but I'm out. I'll just leave by saying that there still a lot of possible solutions on the table obviously we know that but just don't get gitty if that's even physically possible. 

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it's interesting... 

Honestly I have not paid much attention to that particular model in years I have no idea what it's bias profiles are like.  I just simply don't have the time to get acquainted  

I know that it used to always have an amp bias in the mid range ...yet this solution appears to be underdone if anything.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just knowing that bias , Its in a pretty good spot right now.

Some of these biases are likely outdated. We used that back in the early 2000s. The model has gone through many changes since then. Maybe it still holds, but I’d want to see something more scientific before believing it.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z Ukie isn't even close...looks like an even crappier version of the 12z Euro.

 

Dec30_00zUkie120.gif

Dec30_00zUkie144.gif

Probably means Euro won’t bite yet.  Not as solid a rule as it once was but probably still 75-25 it follows it to some extent.  Especially on a cycle where big changes occur on other guidance 

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