78Blizzard Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'd love to see the FV3 score a coup on this with the consistency it has shown. Otherwise, it will be at the bottom of the pack for verification, at least in the intermediate range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Seems that the GFS is locking in on the PNA rising and part of the PV making a move south @ around the 22nd or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Anyone have a euro update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro still looks offshore and so does eps. Congrats MA. Sorry for my streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Good night on the 6z gfs. That may be it given the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yes this threat is dead. Look forward towards the 18th/19th EPS MEAN has a clipper heading south of Long Island and Nantucket towards day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It’s not dead, but on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes this threat is dead. Look forward towards the 18th/19th EPS MEAN has a clipper heading south of Long Island and Nantucket towards day 8. D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 44 minutes ago, weathafella said: D10 ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not dead, but on life support. the para was paranormal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: D10 I hope it's clear on the night of the 20th, there's a big super moon total eclipse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Saw that coming. Was nice to get to bed early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not dead, but on life support. How’s the EPS in the extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, ScituateWX said: How’s the EPS in the extended? That hasn't changed. About what you can ask for. As long as people keep things in perspective and are reasonable. I wouldn't assume 2015 is walking through the door and every storm is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the para was paranormal It won't give up. I mean look there is still time I suppose, but that is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won't give up. I mean look there is still time I suppose, but that is an outlier. Does the disqualifier written about the GFS being off and not being able to be fixed because of the govt shutdown also apply to the para, Scott? If so, nothing but the Euro and its ensembles can be used for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1.5 pages of posts overnight in a mid-January discussion thread = deflated weenies. At least there's a little snow on the ground this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That hasn't changed. About what you can ask for. As long as people keep things in perspective and are reasonable. I wouldn't assume 2015 is walking through the door and every storm is snow. Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time." We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time." We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted. 2015 did just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2015 did just that. While this is being stated within a different context, every time I see references to 2015, I can't help but thinking of James' conjuring up how every storm--even day 10 ones--is 1978 or Juno reincarnate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2015 did just that. Past performance is not indicative of future results... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah we're not getting this until we ever partially phase some of that northern stream streak in. A more intense southern stream could help draw that in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time." We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted. Nothing since November is downtime? Downtime from what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 hours ago, CT Rain said: They seem slower too - some decent members on Monday. Hey Ryan, nice call on the thunderstorms last night. We had the best storm since September here. Terrific thunder. Too bad it wasn't accompanied by snow, but there's still time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Past performance is not indicative of future results... Agree. I was just pointing out it happens (50 day snow droughts even in great winters....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That hasn't changed. About what you can ask for. As long as people keep things in perspective and are reasonable. I wouldn't assume 2015 is walking through the door and every storm is snow. Vast majority should be snow with that blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time." We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted. This winter won't get much passed a C+ IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Does the disqualifier written about the GFS being off and not being able to be fixed because of the govt shutdown also apply to the para, Scott? If so, nothing but the Euro and its ensembles can be used for now. I don't trust much of anything from any GFS related product more than 5 days out. The PARA scores weren't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: While this is being stated within a different context, every time I see references to 2015, I can't help but thinking of James' conjuring up how every storm--even day 10 ones--is 1978 or Juno reincarnate. Silly analogy....unless someome specifically excpects 100" in 30 days. But there is good reason to believe that this winter will evolve in a generally similar fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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