RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Are they just tucked due to a stronger southern stream or are they phase bombs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow. EPS def getting better. That's not that far SE of BM with plenty of time left. There are a few south of Long island on Monday, seems like something redevelops and then moves northeast Monday into Tuesday. Sunday is just some light snow south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are they just tucked due to a stronger southern stream or are they phase bombs? I don't think there are that many phase bombs in there. Maybe a couple but definitely some seem to be mostly southern stream. I'm kind of skeptical of that but who knows. There's still a decent amount of time. Also hard to tell based on the spaghetti plots if a few might be late phasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think there are that many phase bombs in there. Maybe a couple but definitely some seem to be mostly southern stream. I'm kind of skeptical of that but who knows. There's still a decent amount of time. Also hard to tell based on the spaghetti plots if a few might be late phasers. They seem slower too - some decent members on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, CT Rain said: They seem slower too - some decent members on Monday. I noticed that too. In any case, nam looked a little better fwiw. It’s getting snow to ORD and I know the streak is there, but it’s kind of pushing out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I noticed that too. In any case, nam looked a little better fwiw. It’s getting snow to ORD and I know the streak is there, but it’s kind of pushing out too. Maybe later is better? Get the SSS out and get the N stream energy to hold back some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Maybe later is better? Get the SSS out and get the N stream energy to hold back some? It certainly can’t hurt to get that out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 00z NAM is a much stronger southern stream shortwave, it actually closes off at H5 over TX or the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I noticed that too. In any case, nam looked a little better fwiw. It’s getting snow to ORD and I know the streak is there, but it’s kind of pushing out too. Almost seems like a brand new northern stream impulse getting ready to dive down; as tho we're only looking at the s/w ridge. The illusion of pushing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z NAM is a much stronger southern stream shortwave, it actually closes off at H5 over TX or the Deep South. More like MO/IA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More like MO/IA border. It's also closing off at the 552 depth which is unimpressive for that particular latitude/climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It's also closing off at the 552 depth which is unimpressive for that particular latitude/climo. My bad the Ia/MO border. That second shortwave in the northern stream could phase if the models are trending towards a slower southern stream, especially if the NAM is right with the southern trough closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It does illustrate an important dual jet structure passing/getting ready to turn SE via the NW territories at the end of the run. Thing is is that nothings really changed in my mind anyway… Should the northern stream come back the southern stream is still providing a conduit for any impulse to dive into. Hence the subsume scenario is just not model to do that right now but it was two days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Wonder if those later / closer EPS members are related to that lagging piece of PVA shooting down behind the southern stream as we saw on the 18z GFS... a somewhat different evolution (we've seen several in the past 48 hours) that could give us more impact, delayed but not denied... As we've all said... these big H5 features are still very much in flux and there's plenty of time for this to trend better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Wonder if those later / closer EPS members are related to that lagging piece of PVA shooting down behind the southern stream as we saw on the 18z GFS... a somewhat different evolution (we've seen several in the past 48 hours) that could give us more impact, delayed but not denied... As we've all said... these big H5 features are still very much in flux and there's plenty of time for this to trend better or worse also the southern stream energy isn't on the west coast just yet, so sampling is minimal especially if the government shutdown is really impacting our satellite coverage. Not sure that is true or not, but it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: also the southern stream energy isn't on the west coast just yet, so sampling is minimal especially if the government shutdown is really impacting our satellite coverage. Not sure that is true or not, but it is possible. Even with satellite I still think there is a big difference when the energy comes ashore. It’s just not the same til the RAOBS sample the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even with satellite I still think there is a big difference when the energy comes ashore. It’s just not the same til the RAOBS sample the system agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Phasing of separate Pacific and the sub-tropical jet disturbances slows the southern stream down and phases together slow the system down to the northern stream can become involved as the SSS lifts out ahead of the shortwave and snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This strikes me as a system that might change heading in short order. That laggy piece of energy might be toying with the models. Take a bit of time to sort that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not much help on GFS or GGEM at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much help on GFS or GGEM at 00z. I'm out to hour 108, it looks good, the confluence streak is lifting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm out to hour 108, it looks good, the confluence streak is lifting out It not happening this run....if we're picking nits, it looked slightly better. Almost got a partial phase with northern stream. But this run verbatim is not gonna produce much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 yeah, you were right, why did it just fall apart like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much help on GFS or GGEM at 00z. Para gfs is still further north than the old gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Ride the PARA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Ride the PARA! Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah FV3-GFS has consistently brought the system close or even inside the BM for at least 6 straight runs I assume it does not generally have better verification scores vs. GFS, but this will be an interesting case test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 0z UK a clear tick north vs. 12z (but still way OTS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah FV3-GFS has consistently brought the system close or even inside the BM for at least 6 straight runs I assume it does not generally have better verification scores vs. GFS, but this will be an interesting case test Actually, according to this it has a better verification than the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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