USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s pretty darn potent. If that idea is right we would have to hope the timing is off. There are windows between those rotating vorts where the system would be able to come more north if you sneak in a 12 hour period between them It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs. Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Hopefully this is one of the last systems where it's like pulling teeth trying to bring snow into the area. We pray for the period post 1/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It's just simply a piss poor correlation with a moderately strong Phase 8 backed +PNA ... by 10, there's no signal at all really - baffling. By D10 it's some kind of weird undulate look with equals ridge-trough wave structure across the 40th parallel, with limited or no coherent L/W typology for either length of semi-fixed structures normal to to the ides of January. This run looks poorly continuous of any "theme" other than chaos from the 00z run, which subsequently bore the same disarray comparing the run before that... This entire run isn't worth the letters types by anyone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs. Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite. I say this with the most respectable touch, but not going to happen James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I say this with the most respectable touch, but not going to happen James. Oh I know Scott, of course, this isn't happening, just pointed out the potential is still there for a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh I know Scott, of course, this isn't happening, just pointed out the potential is still there for a few inches of snow. Note to clarify, I meant the storms you listed. A light event could happen l, hell even the lightet version of those storms are possible perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs. Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite. 12/09 had a vort in Canada but it was fairly unstable and we knew all we needed for it do was split and it did. The vort in February 2010 wasn’t anywhere as near as strong as this one. The timing was just miserable on it. The flow was also more WSW with a negatively tiled trof I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 If that streak is west . We snow and we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is like the Challenger Deep trying to find rock bottom... thinking they're crawling across the final floor of the abyss only to find another drop off - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is like the Challenger Deep trying to find rock bottom... thinking they're crawling across the final floor of the abyss only to find another drop off - Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Jimmy said he would dial it back this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression. heh... more than less suggesting worse already - ...i mean, at least with suppression you'd have something similar to a -AO and +PNA combination ..i.e., too much of a good thing ... but this? It's changed to rectal plaque - ...this doesn't correlate to anything, while simultaneously removing any passion for weather. There are few truly 0 unredeeming looks .. this is trying to figure one out. And doing so amid at Phased 8 MJO +PNA with a -AO ball sack is an unwanted tea-baggin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression. THIS would definately be a terrible situation. Warm and wet to cold and dry. Hope this is not the case but even if we get suppressed, when the pattern breaks down there may be an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Hopefully in a couple of days with potential ticks northwest this will be decent by that time. Keeping fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I'll take an inch or two...just enough to cover the grass for more than 24 hours. Is that too much to ask for in mid January in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just remember to go back and read some of the early to mid January 2015 threads in here... similar angst... similar voices calling for patience. Or Jan 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 EC ensembles are def an improvement from last night....but we still need more help. I don't think we're getting the scooter streak out of the way in time, so we are going to need a partial phase...that's going to be our best path to a storm. It's not favorable, we'll need to see that trend west about 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: They sold Jimmy short in that one. BTW, big improvements showing up inside of 300h....around 1/20....much bigger ridge out west vs 00z run. Ray is going to be strutting his stuff if that timing works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They sold Jimmy short in that one. BTW, big improvements showing up inside of 300h....around 1/20....much bigger ridge out west vs 00z run. Ray is going to be strutting his stuff if that timing works out. Yup Jimmy cracked corn on that one. If Ray gets this he will be on a whole 'nother level. You can see the 500mb ridge really starting to shape up even on the 17th/18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Man that’s tasty after 300hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EC ensembles are def an improvement from last night....but we still need more help. I don't think we're getting the scooter streak out of the way in time, so we are going to need a partial phase...that's going to be our best path to a storm. It's not favorable, we'll need to see that trend west about 100-200 miles. A lot of left leaning members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It’s gonna snow at least to the Pike Sunday. Nice gentle to medium event. You can see it coming together today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: A lot of left leaning members Scooter has a thing for left leaning members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man that’s tasty after 300hr. Nice progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scooter has a thing for left leaning members I also lean left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nice progression Yep. Weenies take note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep. Weenies take note. You can see where that;s going too past the end....that's starting to let the NAO into the fun I think...and the PNA/EPO ridge isn't even done building up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see where that;s going too past the end....that's starting to let the NAO into the fun I think...and the PNA/EPO ridge isn't even done building up yet. If we can just get even an advisory this weekend, it would feel like busting in a bloop single to win the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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