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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It's been kind of north the whole time. I think it had one run that was mostly snow. Maybe 12z yesterday. But most of the EPS runs have shown us flirting with ice/sleet after snow on front end. 

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It had been trending southeast for at least a few runs is what I mean...poorly worded. My fault.

Rt 2 seems to be a transition zone on the euro.

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It's been kind of north the whole time. I think it had one run that was mostly snow. Maybe 12z yesterday. But most of the EPS runs have shown us flirting with ice/sleet after snow on front end. 

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Yep need PF suppression depression.  This is the 6z EPS Will referenced 850 and 540, only goes to 144

eps_t850_0_conus_144.png

eps_z500_5400_conus_144.png

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:57 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yep need PF suppression depression.  This is the 6z EPS Will referenced 850 and 540, only goes to 144

eps_t850_0_conus_144.png

eps_z500_5400_conus_144.png

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That's the 540dm height...not thickness. 540dm thickness is roughly a 552dm height. Plus in these overrunning situations we can snow with thicknesses near 546dm.

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:59 PM, dryslot said:

The pattern is getting to some on here, Going to be a long week, Especially if this turns to sh it for some.

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Maybe I eat these words, but I would rather walk this line, than risk another confluence crush. That would send me over the edge.

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had been trending southeast for at least a few runs is what I mean...poorly worded. My fault.

Rt 2 seems to be a transition zone on the euro.

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Yeah. It def isn't trending SE anymore. It wasn't going to keep trending SE either. I would have been surprised. I'll be surprised if we don't see another couple shifts between now and verification. This fricken storm is still 6 days out, lol. 

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  On 1/14/2019 at 1:58 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

The EPS is tolerable for SNE. At least we get front end goods. 

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If someone offered me 4-6" of snow followed by sleet/ice, I'd sign on the dotted line. Easily. Still way too much time on a highly variant setup for things to go very wrong. So I'd lock in a wintry solution if offered even if it means passing on the fantasy outcomes. 

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  On 1/14/2019 at 2:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If someone offered me 4-6" of snow followed by sleet/ice, I'd sign on the dotted line. Easily. Still way too much time on a highly variant setup for things to go very wrong. So I'd lock in a wintry solution if offered even if it means passing on the fantasy outcomes. 

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Even w a couple hundy on the line

like I said I’m good w couple snow and all frozen . I’m gawd damn sick of winter rain and I don’t wanna see a drop of the shiat

i have some wiggle room where I sit that I see more of a frzr situation if this clicks nw a little 

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  On 1/14/2019 at 2:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'd feel good from you to dendy and PF. My gut is this will be more for you guys..but my gut doesn't mean much this far out.

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Well, I'm optimistic, The last time we had a 6"+ storm here was 11/20/18, When everyone speaks of how well NNE has done so far this winter, That hasn't been the case here even though were part of it, At some point and it should be this time frame going forward, The coastal plain and the coastal areas should start to experience more in the way of snow, But we've had the rug pulled out from under us many times before, By thurs or so, Should have a good idea of where this is going to set up.

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  On 1/14/2019 at 2:04 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems to me this system is pretty dang easy to forecast at 4-5 day range IN COMPARISON to other systems with two pieces needed to phase and no storm developed (impossible at A 5 day lead)

Trends next 48 to 60 seal our fate 

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I agree. The big picture of it hasn’t shifted for days. Although for New York City and southern New England the devil is in the details so it feels to them like it’s shifting situation. Up here it looks like all frozen and likely all snow. Amount significant but unknown.  I am quite interested and curious about Friday and figure we will see a consolidation on that overnight.  If this is a 2part system then we are only 4 days out.

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