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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

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Yup.

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

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Hazey might care.

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Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:39 AM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

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Looks fine to us:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_42.png

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm.  I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams.  Could the NAM be onto something?  We will find out at 12z today's runs.

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Nobody cares, not going to happen, move on.

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:39 AM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

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So those reds over the arctic and greenland are just an illusion? Hmmm

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It's also possible that the PV sinks south and goes back to yesterday's solutions...but people need to understand that with the energy out west, ridge not really a PNA ridge yet, and no big -NAO...it's definitely a hugger or even a cutter risk. As usual this far out, all options on table.

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  On 1/11/2019 at 11:08 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS says what cutter 

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You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850  2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question 

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  On 1/11/2019 at 12:38 PM, Ginx snewx said:

You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850  2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question 

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So you’re leaning lakes cutter 

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  On 1/11/2019 at 12:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Cutter is def possible for all the reasons Scooter mentioned. The storm is like 9 days out though. Not sure why anyone would rule a particular solution out at that time range. Doesn't change anything in the long term though. 

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If past model performance is indicative of current, we should be glad that they've trended toward a miss at this point.

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