WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well to be fair, it’s not quite to the extent that you are making it out whineminster. If things start picking up in the next week or so...we are entering the heart of winter, as mid to late January through mid and late February are climatological peak. So it’s all good..plenty of prime time winter time ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Twitter has some people with horrible behavior, I wish I didn't have a twitter account, but I do for other reasons. However newest ICON run is showing what a slow-moving southern stream shortwave does for the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:34 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I see, I only saw a few films of the franchise, I am not much of a reader believe it or not, but I love the art of writing. Expand To master the art of writing, you must worship at the altar of reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:22 AM, Whineminster said: I hate these back ended winters.... it's like hitting the lottery when you're 75.....I mean it's great....but you know it's all going to end soon so you can't even enjoy it really. It would have been way better if you won at 35. Expand It’s not a backended winter yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON is the closest to a phase with the two separate streams at 00z, although the particular run was worse than the 18z run for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:43 AM, JBinStoughton said: It’s not a backended winter yet Expand Its naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Anyone have any thoughts on the 00z GFS so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:43 AM, JBinStoughton said: It’s not a backended winter yet Expand Anything after January 20 is most def back ended...to me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:52 AM, Whineminster said: Anything after January 20 is most def back ended...to me anyway. Expand I know, calendar-wise. I just meant the great second half hasn’t happened yet. Let’s see what actually happens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:52 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone have any thoughts on the 00z GFS so far? Expand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:52 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone have any thoughts on the 00z GFS so far? Expand It's a miss. Give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:58 AM, CT Rain said: It's a miss. Give it up. Expand Why would you stop following the models before they even begin agreeing on the details, Ryan you know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:52 AM, Whineminster said: Anything after January 20 is most def back ended...to me anyway. Expand Whatever... in my opinion it’s perfect/prime time!! This MET winter sh*t is nonsense!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:01 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why would you stop following the models before they even begin agreeing on the details, Ryan you know better. Expand Stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 LOL, 00z GFS coming in tuckie tuck, as the streak lifts more northward than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stop it. Expand Are you even watching the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:01 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why would you stop following the models before they even begin agreeing on the details, Ryan you know better. Expand The coastal is closer to the coast down near SNJ I think NYC will see 1-2 inches with more to the south The confluence is the killer once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:03 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Are you even watching the 00z GFS? Expand This isn't going to hit SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:03 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Are you even watching the 00z GFS? Expand No. I don't care- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:01 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why would you stop following the models before they even begin agreeing on the details, Ryan you know better. Expand Lol ...James you’re like a 9 year old wishing and begging for a prize. It’s most likely (like 95%) toast!!! So that’s what he means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:03 AM, Snow88 said: The coastal is closer to the coast down near SNJ I think NYC will see 1-2 inches with more to the south The confluence is the killer once again Expand The confluence kills it, next week I feel something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE. That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat. Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event. We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:06 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE. That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat. Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event. We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat. Expand There is confluence to the north squashing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:06 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE. That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat. Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event. We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat. Expand I'll be lucky to see 3-6 cirrus streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 When snow88 is the objective, skeptical voice, its time to stop, drop and roll away from the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:07 AM, Snow88 said: There is confluence to the north squashing this. Expand There is no confluence that is strong enough to keep this storm south, what keeps this storm south and not able to intensify is lack of phasing between streams, and also the lack of an intense southern stream disturbance, one that is consolidated. I think we have seen trends in the past storms that were southern stream dominant come in stronger once we got within 48 hours of the event, this is possible as well. I will give the models another 48 hours before giving up hope on an event at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:11 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: There is no confluence that is strong enough to keep this storm south, what keeps this storm south and not able to intensify is lack of phasing between streams, and also the lack of an intense southern stream disturbance, one that is consolidated. I think we have seen trends in the past storms that were southern stream dominant come in stronger once we got within 48 hours of the event, this is possible as well. I will give the models another 48 hours before giving up hope on an event at all. Expand ITS BOTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: When snow88 is the objective, skeptical voice, its time stop, drop and roll away from the computer. Expand I was thinking exactly This..Anthony calling it quits is not a good sign for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: ITS BOTH. Expand We disagree, Ray, that is fine, but I am off to bed, getting my sleep in before the weekend, I have a feeling I will be up this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 4:13 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We disagree, Ray, that is fine, but I am off to bed, getting my sleep in before the weekend, I have a feeling I will be up this weekend. Expand Rip Van Weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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