USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 4:37 AM, SnoSki14 said: Not gonna cut with that massive banana high overhead. Biggest risk is suppression, I believe it's a Mid-Atlantic special but a lot of time for changes. Big precip shield possible though. Expand Could be big Precipitation shield, we would like a more dynamic surface low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Ukie was much closer. Maybe a scraper but no qpf maps to know for sure (they don't matter anyway)...when 12z had almost nothing resembling a storm. So that's some good progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 4:51 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ukie was much closer. Maybe a scraper but no qpf maps to know for sure (they don't matter anyway)...when 12z had almost nothing resembling a storm. So that's some good progress. Expand You can almost expect the EURO to trend closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS would bring a foot+ of snow to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Its on. Zero changes. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 5:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its on. Zero changes. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html Expand Awesome discussion Ray. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS went N this run and FV3 went a bit S, looking somewhat disorganized. Opposite of their 18z movement. Let's just blend the two and lock it. Not staying up for Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Euro is a mess even for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:29 AM, CoastalWx said: Euro is a mess even for DC. Expand Who cares...plenty of time, but this threat is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who cares...plenty of time, but this threat is garbage. Expand It is too early to call it garbage Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:43 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is too early to call it garbage Ray. Expand Watch me...g-a-r-b-a-g-e. All sarcasm aside, I'm sure it will trend back, but keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 They are Ray, you said January 20th onward I believe in Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:49 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: They are Ray, you said January 20th onward I believe in Ray Expand Doesn't mean it won't snow before then....we could see a few inches from that, but it needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who cares...plenty of time, but this threat is garbage. Expand Looks like a moderate event is still on the table. Euro was correcting the PNA ridge further west. A nice bonus before the main action would really quelm the fears around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 6:58 AM, SnoSki14 said: Looks like a moderate event is still on the table. Euro was correcting the PNA ridge further west. A nice bonus before the main action would really quelm the fears around here. Expand I agree....just baiting James. I think that is about the ceiling, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Much less interaction between the streams this run, and the southern system is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Much less interaction between the streams this run, and the southern system is slower. Expand 06z GFS will easily push those on the edge over, and perhaps get a few more to start climbing on then rail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:19 AM, moneypitmike said: 06z GFS will easily push those on the edge over, and perhaps get a few more to start climbing on then rail. Expand Gfs is really squashed It's funny how every threat so far since november has been rain or squashed. We can't get lucky at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I am not trusting any model until at least the earliest 00z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Well as mentioned many times previously, it’s not the pattern to get a storm up the coast really. We’ll see what today brings, but not good trends overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Even in the ratters, we catch a break or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:49 AM, CoastalWx said: Well as mentioned many times previously, it’s not the pattern to get a storm up the coast really. We’ll see what today brings, but not good trends overnight. Expand The good trends are the massive pattern change still on. The threat over the upcoming weekend is fun if it happens but current guidance is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:47 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not trusting any model until at least the earliest 00z Thursday Expand Unless it's one that inspires you to say "Juno". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:54 AM, weathafella said: The good trends are the massive pattern change still on. The threat over the upcoming weekend is fun if it happens but current guidance is weak. Expand Right, just speaking about the weekend crap. I hope nobody got suckered into it but apparently some did. There is still some time to work on that, but let’s be reasonable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:54 AM, weathafella said: The good trends are the massive pattern change still on. The threat over the upcoming weekend is fun if it happens but current guidance is weak. Expand Pushing the start of snows toward the end of January is disappointing. While we've been prepared for a good latter part of the season, I don't think anyone was thinking that the entirety of December and first half of January would be shut-outs. That's the main driver of the frustration I think--we've been blanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 How were ensembles for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Models always lose the storm after they first show it...then it trends back to a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said: How were ensembles for it? Expand For the weekend? The 00z GEFS showed a pretty wide spread with a few providing a nice hit, but most did not and the mean was meh. Hopefully the 06z won't trend like the op did. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:19 AM, Whineminster said: Models always lose the storm after they first show it...then it trends back to a big hit. Expand Actually they don't always. Most times they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:20 AM, moneypitmike said: For the weekend? The 00z GEFS showed a pretty wide spread with a few providing a nice hit, but most did not and the mean was meh. Hopefully the 06z won't trend like the op did. Bleh. Expand Well I did see those but didn’t see the individual EPS members this morning. They looked decent at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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