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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/7/2019 at 7:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

behind but the Euro changed dramatically out west beyond D6 anyway... compared to priors - 'nough so to question handling everywhere... 

 

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Exactly... this specific EC run objectively fails the "which of these is not like the others" at H5 and lack of northern stream energy. "The others" being EC 0z/12z yesterday runs, as well as GFS and GGEM. One critical lacking ingredient is the northern stream digging vorticity. If that was better, the H5 gradient is sufficiently decompressed as Will and others posted for a more amplified solution.

This weekend may be the "beta" product until the PNA improves. If GEFS have any clue, the assembly line will be optimized beginning Jan 20's.

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There's such a lottery with these patterns...   The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently.  But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern.

One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams...  with four weeks of pattern yet to endure.  That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:45 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Are you including the 1978 New England Blizzard?

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Certainly potential for that magnitude down the line....I don't anticipate much, if any limitations, aside from the shear magnitude of the anomaly that it would take to rival such an occurence.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There's such a lottery with these patterns...   The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently.  But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern.

One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams...  with four weeks of pattern yet to endure.  That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... 

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Bingo.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There's such a lottery with these patterns...   The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently.  But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern.

One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams...  with four weeks of pattern yet to endure.  That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... 

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Tip, that was brutal! (lol)

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:48 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup... he's saying there's a distinct probability that it's wise to really get one's hopes very high for 1978 -

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You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work!

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:52 PM, FRWEATHA said:

You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work!

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And Ray, Brian, Scott.....gosh the whole board lol

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  On 1/7/2019 at 8:52 PM, FRWEATHA said:

You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work!

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Thanks. There are several other frequent flyers in here that know more than I do, but I'm just OCD enough to actually spend 24 hours meticulously articulating it all lol

Lets see what happens first...I may be high for KBOS bc it seems more 1969 than 1978, so far.

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