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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:04 PM, dryslot said:

Bomb on the GGEM, Going to be on the GFS too it seems

 

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Hey... that may not be a bad thing... I know other's gimme crap for referencing ...but, when your primaries are hitting at an event and then the less reliable model types try to lean that way, I don't personally believe that, in its self, is a bad thing.  It shows there's some sort of presence in the general physics of the period - 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:05 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I have no recollection of those charges ...

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You were pissed that the Valentines day event trended north, and someone tangentially drifted into how your romantic life had trended south...which you linked to a missed phase with Christine.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:07 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey... that may not be a bad thing... I know other's gimme crap for referencing ...but, when your primaries are hitting an event and less reliable model types trying to lean that way, I don't personally believe that, in its self, is a bad thing.  It shows there's some sort of presence in the genera physics of the period - 

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I think its all there for a scenario as depicted, Just where it tracks is the key, Every run shows something in that time frame whether its on the the BM, Inside or 3-500 miles east or so where it was a few days ago.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You were pissed that the Valentines day event trended north, and someone tangentially drifted into how your romantic life had trended south...which you linked to a missed phase with Christine.

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"Missed phase" :lol: Gold. I'm absolutely using that in that context some day.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:07 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey... that may not be a bad thing... I know other's gimme crap for referencing ...but, when your primaries are hitting an event and less reliable model types trying to lean that way, I don't personally believe that, in its self, is a bad thing.  It shows there's some sort of presence in the genera physics of the period - 

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I was just posting earlier this morning that I wanted to start seeing more cross-guidance support and the GGEM does that. EPS have a hint there so it's not gfs suite entirely on its own...but getting a few other OP solutions on other guidance increases the idea that the physical impulses are there in the flow as you say....different model physics are producing a similar result which is usually a good thing. 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I was just posting earlier this morning that I wanted to start seeing more cross-guidance support and the GGEM does that. EPS have a hint there so it's not gfs suite entirely on its own...but getting a few other OP solutions on other guidance increases the idea that the physical impulses are there in the flow as you say....different model physics are producing a similar result which is usually a good thing. 

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This! 

word...  And, even though I stand by my reasoning tact this morning ... at the time we did not have this advantage of support - if in fact we are getting it...  Looks like it, huh. interesting....  

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Alright ... looks like I'm not getting outta that one... 

Yeah, 2007 V-Day storm was annoying.  But the "melt" wasn't entirely weather related... putting the record straight.  It was a dark, comical metaphoric comparison - as Ray duly noted - over how phasing got f'ed up...   And okay - so Jack Daniels was not stopping me from getting into the bar fight. 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

You can see it just missed phasing so as usual...precarious setup. If it misses more it’s OTS. 

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Yeah. I'm not too worried about an overly amped solution with where the ridge is out west and the high placement. Ridge is centered right over Montana...that is like a 2015 placement where you either get hit or it slips east. We'd need it digging into like the Yucatán to worry too much. 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Alright ... looks like I'm not getting outta that one... 

Yeah, 2007 V-Day storm was annoying.  But the "melt" wasn't entirely weather related... putting the record straight.  It was a dark, comical metaphric comparison - as Ray duly noted - over how phasing got f'ed up...   And okay - so Jack Daniels was not stopping me from getting into the bar fight -

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We've all been there.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 4:12 PM, dryslot said:

Hopefully the chargers don't mind a little snow. 

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FYP

Simply put, Jan 13-14 has the best cross-model signal for a big one I've seen so far this winter...

And regardless of how that specific storm unfolds, the stout PNA on GEFS after Jan 20 (great longterm outlook Ray) might be enough to pull me out of hibernating lurker mode... fantastic teleconnection discussions all.

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