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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/6/2019 at 11:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ha, oh man. Lock it in.

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The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard.  Period.

What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike.  4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass...  'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne

How it's fun to speculate -

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  On 1/6/2019 at 11:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

They continue to look like that. The EPS aren’t as good yet, but they’re ok. 

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Feels like for the 1/11-1/18 period we're going to end up getting the 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS. GEFS were too optimistic but EPS were prob too pessimistic. So we get some chances. 

They both look pretty damned good once we near 1/20 though. 

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  On 1/7/2019 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Feels like for the 1/11-1/18 period we're going to end up getting the 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS. GEFS were too optimistic but EPS were prob too pessimistic. So we get some chances. 

They both look pretty damned good once we near 1/20 though. 

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Yup.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 12:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard.  Period.

What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike.  4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass...  'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne

How it's fun to speculate -

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exactly speculate................

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  On 1/7/2019 at 12:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm in wait mode...I think the GEFS are too aggressive, and not much left to be said. 

Just waiting until 1/20...proceed with caution in relation to anything beforehand.

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It looks like after the moderation period (1/13-1/19) things dramatically improve.

Actually going to get some cold later this week, haven't seen that in a while.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 12:27 AM, SnoSki14 said:

It looks like after the moderation period (1/13-1/19) things dramatically improve.

Actually going to get some cold later this week, haven't seen that in a while.

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Agreed.

Once the EPS confirms as we get closer, I'll start blogging again.

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  On 1/7/2019 at 12:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard.  Period.

What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike.  4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass...  'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne

How it's fun to speculate -

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Snowbowl at Foxboro.  Let it happen.  Then let's do it again the following week, assuming Indianapolis wins.  (oops, also assuming we win next Sunday  :thumbsup:).  Yes, it's fun to speculate.

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